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Typical square selections.
The most obvious is betting the points to go over, or the superstar team vs the NBA janitor team. But are there other bets the "square" rec gambler will lean towards. With short spreads in NBA do they gravitate to the ML or do they lay the -2? How do they look at laying -11 points vs taking 11?
Perceived is public will be on the overs and the favorites, regardless of spread or total. I don't think there is a generalization on spreads/ML's as it is likely too personal of a preference.
Originally Posted by tto827
This is true, but bettors are more sophisticated then years ago so sometimes the square play will be a dog or even an under. In the old days dog and under square plays happened far less often then they do today. That being said if the house can have every football game on a weekend go dog and under they would jump on it like a victoria secret model.
Betting a basketball favourite on Moneyline, a typical square attitude. A square bettor doesn't care about value, good odds etc. He think in short term, he just wants to win. Therefore, instead of -3 @ 1.91, he picks ML 1.55 or 1.60.
Squares are in love with low odds like 1.15-1.20. (-600 American)
Buying points.. Total is 195 @ 1.952. He buy points and picks Over 193. Another square action..
In some cases the opposite though. I believe the reason point spreads are the bet of choice on American Football is that Joe Sixpack recoils at laying $100 to win $20 on a Favorite. So he'll bet the point spread, or take the ML dog, cause he can "win more" that way.
I agree with Richard that american bettors ( I am one) are less likely to lay -350 then to take a +300. If the true odds should be +500 or not does not matter. They are just looking for the big hit with small money and have no clue what the actual correct play is.
When I see a poster in the forum buying points in NBA totals that Sawyer described it SCREAMS square no matter what else he posts. That could be the most -EV thing on the entire board every night.
I disagree. I think what historically has been thought of as square is no longer true. Forums have turned the average bettor into a "fade the public" guy taking unders and home dogs. The irony is that they are fading what used to be the public, so this idea is doomed to mediocrity. I think there is more efficiency in the lines lately, but line shading oscillates and varies by sport. I have data to support these assessments, but won't be posting it.
It should be obvious though if anyone looks at the silly articles that places like sportsinsights posts about reverse line movement and other formerly relevant things like that.
Sometimes you find value in short line fav ML's in certain sports.
Last edited by Miz; 02-14-13 at 04:33 PM.
May be time to go contra-contrarian.
Actually at this moment in time, it is true that you will lose less quickly this way.
You just have to identify plus EV plays irrespective of the perceived side they seem to lean toward. But if you're a baseball bettor you already know this.
Square Play Examples for 2/14
Atletico Madrid to win -250
Oklahoma city ML -225
Inter to win -200
Napoli to win -200
Barcelona to win (Basket) -160
Where is a popular bet, all squares are there..
You can't make money by betting heavy, popular favourites. You gotta find value bets. Hard to find value on heavy favourites since they're hammered hard. Books are in business and they know how much betting public loves to bet big, popular teams. Underdogs must be the corner stone of your betting strategy. I don't say you should bet only dogs; I'm talking about a balance here but if you're betting always the favourite, then good luck to you cause you'll need it, lol.
Last edited by Sawyer; 02-14-13 at 07:58 PM.
You go in every thread essentially saying the same thing: That betting strong favorites is a bad bet. Do you have any numbers to back up your claim? There are many studies (probably some books as well) on the favorite-longshot bias, and it is well documented that betting the average favorite has a higher EV than betting the average underdog.
So please show your proof or shut up.
Another classical square bet is taking a few large moneyline faves, and parlay them. Even more square if making a combo parlay (trixie, yankee, etc.) or round robin them.
A bet is square if, and only if, the best market price has not been taken.
End of thread.
No. Again, you fail to understand, lol. Not all favourites are a bad bet. Even sometimes, a super favourite can be a value bet. What I'm saying here is, (and what you don't understand) Super-Popular-Favourite is a bad bet since value is gone. If everybody is on Atletico Madrid, odds will be adjusted accordingly. So where's the value?
Yes, my bankroll
Look HUYsuz, It's a busy saturday. I got lots of work to do. You already steal my precious 5 minutes so please don't sh*t the thread with your worthless, arrogant posts. I don't reply all posts so you must realize you're lucky and special since I replied your post, lol.
Last edited by Sawyer; 02-16-13 at 06:46 AM.
Okay, I will do you a favor..
Just go there..
https://www.betsson.com/web/en/sportsbook/
Here, in right you will see it says:
The people have spoken! Today's big 4 are...
Bet 5 GBP >>
The people have spoken, lol. Yeah, it's betting public and huy speaking. Click Bet and you will see a parlay ticket. These are most popular selections picked by Betsson users.
Arsenal
Barcelona
Dortmund
Cardiff
Betsson suggests this parlay bet, lol. What an angel company, they want you to win
You handicap an event and decided to pick Side-A. Then you go to betting forums, talk to your friends and realize everybody is on Side-A. Then you "may" be missing something. If always the most-popular-side was winning, then books would be out of business. I don't say fade the public blindly. Even sometimes public can be right, it depends on situation.
Make sure you don't follow the mass. Just like W.A. Root said, Masses are asses. Masses are headed for slaughterhouse, don't be a sheep in the crowd. Be the GREY WOLF, ready for the ambush!
Manchester City - Leeds : 1
2/13
Chelsea - Brentford : 1
2/13
Granada - Barcelona : 2
1/4
Borussia Dortmund - Eintracht Frankfurt : 1
2/5
Just check the Most Popular Bets at Vegas Insider.
Most $20 bettors take those sides in some way, shape, or form.
square money will never initiate a line move
a 'type' of bet can't really be square in itself without establishing the odds.
parlays/public favorites/chasing steam/bcl whatever, nothing but +EV matters.
totally agree with this post!
Of course it does. Real Sociedad for example today. Real Madrid in CL few days ago.
One thing I am aware of in myself is I am always apprehensive to bet into a heavy juiced Total like O5 -150.
"Yes" bets are typically square. "Will there be a perfect game pitched this season?" "Will Joe Flacco throw an interception in the Super Bowl?" Actually, a bunch of those Super Bowl propositions are skewed to the "Yes" side to accommodate public preference for betting the affirmative.
53 BOSTON @ 54 WINNIPEG
02/17 2:41:07p Pincle -142 +131 02/17 2:30:48p Pincle -149 +137 02/17 2:30:32p Pincle -148 +136 02/17 12:56:02p Pincle -153 +141
02/17 2:36:49p StnCas -170 +150 02/17 2:28:22p StnCas -160 +140
So many posts, everyone posting their gut feeling, nobody posting numbers. Where's the "think" in "think tank"?
it's always dissapointing to read a lot of definitive statements about dynamic and uncertain subjects.
the numbers are just the numbers, you need a critical mindset to turn them into something.
Why is this in here(htt)?
If I put it in Players Talk then what? I know this forum is full of 100s of new threads a day and this one is basically SPAM cluttering up all the incredible free money knowledge that we see daily......But sarcasm aside, I wanted to get any information about what squares like and then watch how the bookies must invariably shade their lines to take advantage of them.
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