1. 11-18-13 09:34 PM #3711
    slam77
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    I can not believe the refs missed that interference call that led to flames 3rd goal. This game should easily be 3-2 jets right now
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  2. 11-18-13 09:37 PM #3712
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by slam77 View Post
    I can not believe the refs missed that interference call that led to flames 3rd goal. This game should easily be 3-2 jets right now
    Montoya is pure garbage. Turned off the game.

    Jets dominating everywhere. Flames stole this one.
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  3. 11-18-13 10:08 PM #3713
    slam77
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Montoya is pure garbage. Turned off the game.

    Jets dominating everywhere. Flames stole this one.
    Agreed. Garbage in the shoot outs as well. That game just gave me negative units for the night.
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  4. 11-19-13 12:18 AM #3714
    El Nino
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    0-1 -1u

    11/19

    Minnesota Wild (+105) 2u BookMaker
    Toronto Maple Leafs (-135) 2u BookMaker

    YTD
    38-30 +9.87u

    A couple of 2u plays here. The Wild just recalled Kuemper but rumor has it he is starting the Thursday game of the B2B. Harding hot, Wild hot, +$, love it all. The Wild are in almost every game they play and the Canadiens have lost the only 2 shootouts they have been in this season. The Wild need to stay out of the box but their PK unit has been better of late (84.8% in their last 10 games) compared to their season long kill percentage (79.2%).

    With the Leafs, just riding a hot home team (7-2) against a bad road team (3-6). The Isles can put the puck in the net, but I like the price here. Getting the better goaltending with the better special teams. The Isles PP has been a lowly 4/38 (10.5%) their last 10 games.
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  5. 11-19-13 12:49 AM #3715
    TFC
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    Nice analysis. Thanks El Nino.
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  6. 11-19-13 01:50 AM #3716
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by TFC View Post
    Nice analysis. Thanks El Nino.
    Go Leafs, go!
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  7. 11-19-13 08:31 PM #3717
    El Nino
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    Well, Leafs roll and the Wild game got out of hand in a hurry after a scoreless 1st. Harding ran.

    Barring a miracle, looks like a break even night.
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  8. 11-19-13 08:43 PM #3718
    mrginandtonic
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    Do you like the Kings tonight niņo?
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  9. 11-19-13 09:08 PM #3719
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Do you like the Kings tonight niņo?
    Tough game to call. Gun to my head, I take the +$ on the Lightning and the under 5 goals at +$. The Lightning came out dead against the Yotes on their first game of this west coast trip and both Bishop and Lindback were shelled in net. I'm assuming they stayed out West for this road trip, so they should be better adjusted time wise. Bishop has been pretty much lights out in November before being ran last game. Stud goaltenders bounce back strong after getting ran. I consider Bishop to be one of the better keepers. The Lightning seem to struggle with gritty, physical teams (3 losses to the Bruins, loss to the Coyotes). I am on the wrong side of a lot of the Kings games. Vegas39 prob has a better feel for them. Classic race to 3 goals in my opinion.
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  10. 11-19-13 11:27 PM #3720
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Tough game to call. Gun to my head, I take the +$ on the Lightning and the under 5 goals at +$. The Lightning came out dead against the Yotes on their first game of this west coast trip and both Bishop and Lindback were shelled in net. I'm assuming they stayed out West for this road trip, so they should be better adjusted time wise. Bishop has been pretty much lights out in November before being ran last game. Stud goaltenders bounce back strong after getting ran. I consider Bishop to be one of the better keepers. The Lightning seem to struggle with gritty, physical teams (3 losses to the Bruins, loss to the Coyotes). I am on the wrong side of a lot of the Kings games. Vegas39 prob has a better feel for them. Classic race to 3 goals in my opinion.

    We both misread this total damn
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  11. 11-20-13 12:08 AM #3721
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    We both misread this total damn
    Yep, I said I can't cap that team... 5 spot for Los Reyes...who woulda thunk it?
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  12. 11-20-13 12:10 AM #3722
    Vegas39
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    Rare to see both teams get double minor high sticking. Plus Kings scored short handed
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  13. 11-20-13 01:51 AM #3723
    mrginandtonic
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Tough game to call. Gun to my head, I take the +$ on the Lightning and the under 5 goals at +$. The Lightning came out dead against the Yotes on their first game of this west coast trip and both Bishop and Lindback were shelled in net. I'm assuming they stayed out West for this road trip, so they should be better adjusted time wise. Bishop has been pretty much lights out in November before being ran last game. Stud goaltenders bounce back strong after getting ran. I consider Bishop to be one of the better keepers. The Lightning seem to struggle with gritty, physical teams (3 losses to the Bruins, loss to the Coyotes). I am on the wrong side of a lot of the Kings games. Vegas39 prob has a better feel for them. Classic race to 3 goals in my opinion.
    Thanks for your input. I thought is was gonna be a close game so put only one unit on the kings. You like the CAPs tomorrow ?
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  14. 11-20-13 11:40 AM #3724
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    Was nice to see Thomas continue his dominant streak against the Nucks last night. When he's in the net, the Panthers have a chance and at +200 or greater, it's worth backing them in certain instances.

    I wanted to drop this link in here for fellow puckheads. This features some of the most advanced stats on the net (for free). I just wish we could see the corsi ratings for teams and players on a shorter time frame, rather than on a season long basis.



    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/index.php
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  15. 11-20-13 12:01 PM #3725
    TheDonger
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    Was nice to see Thomas continue his dominant streak against the Nucks last night. When he's in the net, the Panthers have a chance and at +200 or greater, it's worth backing them in certain instances.

    I wanted to drop this link in here for fellow puckheads. This features some of the most advanced stats on the net (for free). I just wish we could see the corsi ratings for teams and players on a shorter time frame, rather than on a season long basis.



    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/index.php
    They don't even have per period :'( nhl.com have more I think.
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  16. 11-20-13 12:05 PM #3726
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    Does nhl.com have corsi?..not that corsi is everything...thanks.
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  17. 11-20-13 03:56 PM #3727
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Thanks for your input. I thought is was gonna be a close game so put only one unit on the kings. You like the CAPs tomorrow ?
    I like the Pens actually. Green makes that PP go. Crosby usually shows up against Ovie as well.
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  18. 11-20-13 03:57 PM #3728
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    Was nice to see Thomas continue his dominant streak against the Nucks last night. When he's in the net, the Panthers have a chance and at +200 or greater, it's worth backing them in certain instances.

    I wanted to drop this link in here for fellow puckheads. This features some of the most advanced stats on the net (for free). I just wish we could see the corsi ratings for teams and players on a shorter time frame, rather than on a season long basis.



    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/index.php
    Good stuff! I will check it out.

    I was surprised to see the Canucks as such a huge favorite after losing 4 straight or whatever it was.
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  19. 11-20-13 03:59 PM #3729
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    I like the Pens actually. Green makes that PP go. Crosby usually shows up against Ovie as well.

    Pens
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  20. 11-20-13 04:10 PM #3730
    El Nino
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    11/20


    Pittsburgh Penguins (-115) BookMaker
    Ottawa Senators (-105) 5Dimes


    YTD
    39-31 +9.87u
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  21. 11-20-13 05:12 PM #3731
    Allure
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    What do u think about NJ? Anaheim dropped four in a row and while the public is on Anaheim huge, line dropped quite a lot.

    Anyways good luck.
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  22. 11-20-13 07:45 PM #3732
    TC Woods
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    11/20


    Pittsburgh Penguins (-115) BookMaker
    Ottawa Senators (-105) 5Dimes


    YTD
    39-31 +9.87u
    First off, thanks for all you do here. I hate to admit it but I blindly tail all of your NHL picks..

    Secondly tonight, after I placed my bets on Ott and pitt.. got goofing around and placed the following 1st period bet

    Hockey - 2 Ottawa Senators -― +195 for 1st Period
    Hockey - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins -― +185 for 1st Period

    $20 paid $148
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  23. 11-20-13 08:55 PM #3733
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    What do u think about NJ? Anaheim dropped four in a row and while the public is on Anaheim huge, line dropped quite a lot.

    Anyways good luck.
    Hard to go against Anaheim at home. Sounds like some sharp $ came in early on NJ. I crossed that game off my list early.
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  24. 11-20-13 08:56 PM #3734
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by TC Woods View Post
    First off, thanks for all you do here. I hate to admit it but I blindly tail all of your NHL picks..

    Secondly tonight, after I placed my bets on Ott and pitt.. got goofing around and placed the following 1st period bet

    Hockey - 2 Ottawa Senators -― +195 for 1st Period
    Hockey - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins -― +185 for 1st Period

    $20 paid $148
    No prob, good hit.
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  25. 11-20-13 08:58 PM #3735
    Vegas39
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    I blame you for no Quick til after Christmas
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  26. 11-20-13 09:31 PM #3736
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas39 View Post
    I blame you for no Quick til after Christmas
    Scrivens has been holding his own.
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  27. 11-20-13 09:35 PM #3737
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Scrivens has been holding his own.

    Not bad for someone who was close to being cut in preseason
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  28. 11-21-13 06:05 AM #3738
    El Nino
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    1-1 -0.05u

    11/21

    St. Louis Blues (+105) BookMaker


    YTD
    40-32 +9.82u
    Points Awarded:

    bald_guy gave El Nino 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  29. 11-21-13 06:10 AM #3739
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    Lets make some euros or dollars or whatever!!!!
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  30. 11-21-13 08:13 AM #3740
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    Swiss francs thx
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  31. 11-21-13 03:45 PM #3741
    fitguy67
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    Question for NHL stat-weenies: it seems to me that "once upon a time" (ie. before i started betting hockey, and thus became more sensitive to such things)...it seemed that a team carrying a one-goal lead into the last 5 minutes of regulation would register a win in regulation the vast majority of time

    has that % (of the team leading by exactly one-goal at the 55:00 mark of regulation...winning the game inside regulation) changed over the last few years vs. it's long-term average (i strongly suspect that it has changed...more specifically, that it has fallen)

    if someone could get yearly "conversion rates of one-goal-leads held at 55' mark to reg-victories"...for as many years going back as possible, i could do a simple test to see if it has changed in general or dropped specifically, subject to the standard of "statistical significance"
    ____________

    context: i was on ANA ml last night...and what i used to think of as a rather improbably unfortunate turn of events...is now becoming what i expect...and I'm happily surprised/grateful when the team i'm on ML with a few minutes left actually "takes care of business" the straightforward way
    Last edited by fitguy67; 11-21-13 at 03:48 PM.
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  32. 11-21-13 03:57 PM #3742
    tr4sh
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    Any thoughts on blackhawks ML coming off a 1-5 loss?
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  33. 11-21-13 04:37 PM #3743
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Quote Originally Posted by tr4sh View Post
    Any thoughts on blackhawks ML coming off a 1-5 loss?
    Black Hawks puckline tonight.
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  34. 11-21-13 06:23 PM #3744
    dk70
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    Liking anything tonight Nino?
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  35. 11-21-13 09:01 PM #3745
    Roadkill86
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    Nice one! It helps, too, that I'm a lifelong Blues fan!
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