[Mr. Progression]

here it is..

1. Play only on Professional Sports.

2. Play every dog with equal or better record than opponent.

3. Begin play only after 25% of the season has been played.

4. risk the same amount on each wager.

over thousands of wagers, here are the results.

an average of (+1.37) payback on winners.
an average winning rate of (45.5%)

system breaks even at just over 42%.

should net you a positive (+7 units) for every 100 wagers.

doubt me. look it up...

MLB Playoffs: 3-3
NFL week 5: 3-2

remember, 25% of the season must be played. only use for the 4 major pro-sports.

track it and let me know how you do.......... play all underdogs with equal or better records.

Mr. Progression

[fiveteamer]

wow, 11 games.

sign me up.

[HedgeHog]

How did it do during this past regular baseball season?

[LT Profits]

Not 11 games, his reults are over thousands of wagers.

This seems to have merit with a 7% ROI.

[fiveteamer]

Well guy post your results here.

The only example he gave was for 11 games.

Like, "I have a really great system, I went 3-2 last week"

[smitch124]

I was tracking Stuffo's famed underdog system for the 1st half of this year and it was struggling at:

99-144 -23.61 units through June 21st. I will at some point finish off the season, but kinda burnt on hardcore baseball back testing for now...

[Mr. Progression]

i gave you results..

over thousands of wagers, the system will hit at a (45.5%) winning rate. the average payback on your winners will be (+1.37), this includes all 4 major sports.

im not here to sell you a system but to show you a long term proven winner.

i said, if you doubt me, simply track it.

there will be drawdowns along the way but over a very large number of wagers, my results will play out.

the 11 games, were merely something that you would recognize.

Mr. Progression

[Mr. Progression]

this is something that is easy to keep up with. start with the MLB playoffs and with week 5 of the NFL season (which happened to be the 25% mark and last weekend).

MLBP: 3-3 (+0.90 units) (50%)
NFL: 3-2 (+4.30 units) (60%)

you can finish out the playoffs and the nfl season from right here but you cant start the NHL season, until about game 20 for every team.

ill try and post the plays, if possible.

Mr. Progression

[Peep]

GL with your plays Mr. Progression, and thanks for the system.

[Mr. Progression]

thanks Peep, as i said ill try and post the plays but anyone following along, does not need me to post the plays, they can look them up for themselves.

someone (possibly me), should keep this updated.

i have thousands of plays, that say im correct but it can be publicly proven, right here.

just start tracking.

soon the NHL and NBA seasons will be here, we have the remainder of baseball and the entire NFL season. so now seems like a good time for this to be tracked.

Mr. Progression

[RabidDog]

So for basketball and football you'd play the moneyline???

[Mr. Progression]

yes but only on dogs with equal or better records and only after 25% of the season has been played.

the quoted number of (42.5% being about breakeven) includes baseball, which will tend to bring the average down.

the 3 NFL winners last weekend, paid (2.40)(2.20) and about (1.70) and of course the better the price you can get the better you will do.

im trying to speak in generic terms about a very large volume of plays and of course you can expect drawdowns.

Lets say you wanted to start a

Underdog Index Fund with $10,000

and we started this on Oct 1 and we are going to play my system exactly and risk $100 on each wager. the Fund would be at $10,520 now.

this is a very slow time of the year for plays, wait until we get the nba and nhl going and a full season of baseball. the plays will add up.

and before anyone goes off about "Kelly", im sure it will show a better return, as will the sharpest line shoppers.

this is just something to keep up with, im not going to advise anyone to put any money on it.


Mr. Progression

[RabidDog]

do you have any data for this, broken down by each sport??

[Mr. Progression]

yes but i prefer to just let the system play itself out here.

i gave the very long term numbers that can be expected.

i have made 3 bets for this sunday in the NFL, there should be either 6 or 7 plays this sunday, depending on carolina.

GB (+1.20)
NE (+2.10)
Miami (+1.50)

still left to bet: Atl, Car(?), SF, Balt...

there will be a play on philly or TB, should they fall into a dog situation in the playoffs.

Mr. Progression

[Lippsman]

I have heard some rumblings of taking all the ML dogs in the NFL that are +2.5 through +6.5.

It sure doesn't take a huge win % to break even. Two nice ones hit last weekend with the Skins and Fins.

[LT Profits]

The best ML situation in NFL is to take home underdogs between +1 and +2.5. These actually win outright over 50% of the time.

[durito]

The best ML situation in NFL is to take home underdogs between +1 and +2.5. These actually win outright over 50% of the time.

have won

[Sinister Cat]

Heck you used to be able to make money just betting *every* NFL home dog outright. These opportunities seem to be diminishing though. I don't like these sorts of systems-- you never know when the well will run dry.

[coldhardfacts]

Sports contests are like Kinsey's view of people's sexuality. Every one is different.

If your system works, more power to you. But I think you'll do better handicapping each game on its own, identifying matchup advantages, and recognizing where the money line and/or point spreads are not reflective of those advantages.

[dcbt]

Those are some interesting numbers for sure, but I've never been a fan of systems that look only at home teams, or road teams, or dogs, or faves, etc etc.

[Mr. Progression]

well with the current state of the stock market, i dont think it will be that hard to beat their funds performance this month, lets see how the Underdog Index Fund performs..

(10-01-08) Initial Investment: $10,000
(10-09-08) Current Value: $10,520


the rules for the plays are posted above (in post #1), however i am going to start playing the NHL season tonight for (1/2 unit), i will switch to risking a full unit after 20 games have been played by each team.

MLBP: 3-3 (+0.90 units) (+$90)
NFL: 3-2 (+4.30 units) (+$430)

pending plays for tonight (10-09-08)

Leafs (+2.60)
Bos (+1.15)
Cal (+1.15)
Ana (+1.25)

pending plays for sunday in the NFL (week 6)

dolphins (+1.50)
packers (+1.20)
Patriots (+2.10)
Falcons (+1.35)
Panthers (+1.05)
49ers (+1.90)
Balt (+1.70)

the NFL plays are risking $100 (1 unit), the NHL plays are risking $50 (1/2 unit).

when the month ends, i will readjust the amount to be risked, it should stay at (1%) but i only wish to adjust this on the first day of each month, so for October the amount is set.

i may not post each day but ill try but you do not need me to post the plays, the rules for the system are laid out in post (#1) of this thread. everyone should always line shop for the best lines.

lets see how the (Underdog Index Fund) does in October.

Mr. Progression

[Mr. Progression]

not that this matters but here is what my Local was dealing in the NHL tonight (tor +2.80, bos +1.25, cal +1.20, ana +1.30) but ill use the prices posted above for record keeping. i actually have 2 other guys that are going to go in -- on this.

Mr. Progression

[Mr. Progression]

Underdog Index Fund

10-01-08 Initial Investment: $10,000
10-10-08 Current Market Value: $10,608

MLBP: 3-3 (+0.90 units) (+$90)
NFL: 3-2 (+4.30 units) (+$430)

NHL: 2-2 (+0.88 units) (+$88)

plays for (10-10-08)

Phillies (+1.05) risking one unit ($100)

ill post the NHL plays later in the day. remember the NHL plays are only for 1/2 unit ($50) unitl we reach the 25% mark of the season.

Mr. Progression

[ICE-BLOOD]

Mr. Progression, just wondering why your not sticking to the post#1 system rules and playing nhl before 25% of season data

[Mr. Progression]

only playing those for (1/2 unit) and not the full unit..

and i have no reason, this is gambling.

i would be sick, if i were to lose alot doing this.

hoping for the best.

Mr. Progression

[Mr. Progression]

risking (1/2 unit) tonight in the NHL on:

Isles
panthers
chicago
thrashers
clb

predators (+1.00)

there is currently no play on the canadiens/sabres game, if one should move to a dog, ill play it before the puck drops.

will update all the lines later in the evening, as we should shop for best prices.

Mr. Progression

[reno cool]

I don't see Philly as a dog.

the picks are useful though

your system is similar to what I'd use if I was too uninterested to get very in depth(as I'm for now) but still wanted to make some plays

[Mr. Progression]

phils were a dog when i bet them... for games that are going to be close, you have to grab them earlier..

i took the preds tonight at (+1.00), as i didnt know which way line would move.

and your right it takes less time to make plays but i wouldnt call it (less interested).

how many can hit 45.5% over thousands of games at a (+1.37) average payback (not many).

Mr. Progression

[Mr. Progression]

Underdog Index Fund: 8-7 (+6.08 units) (+$608)

entire card for (10-10-08)

phils (+1.05) 1 unit ($100)

isles (+1.85)
fla (+1.35)
chi (+1.25)
atl (+1.20)
nash (+1.00)
clb (+1.55)

still watching the mont/buff line, as of now (no play)

the nhl plays are risking 1/2 unit ($50)

Mr. Progression

[Mr. Progression]

well, the season has just started and already ive screwed up.

chicago was not a play tonight, i suppose i thought that everyone was (0-0) but the rangers were (2-0) and therefore had the better record.

it will stay in the records, regardless of outcome but it was not supposed to be a play. there was also no play in the mont/buff game tonight.

Mr. Progression

[Mr. Progression]

even with the mix-up on the blackhawks tonight, the Fund scratches out another profit.

Underdog Index Fund: 11-11 (+6.50 units) (+$650)

10-01-08 Initial Investment: $10,000
10-11-08 Current Market Value: $10,650

MLBP: 4-3 (+1.95 units) (+$195)
NFL: 3-2 (+4.30 units) (+$430)

NHL: 4-6 (+0.25 units) (+$25)


like most, will be busy with college football on saturday, will try and post the plays sometime tomorrow.

Mr. Progression

[reno cool]

mr. Progression.

One question. Did you look at results and developed this system recently? Or have you been successfully using it for any substantial amount of time?

tx

[Mr. Progression]

i have been using the system for a long while. i laid out the parameters for anyone to follow, long term. its your choice to play it, track it, fade it...

ill keep up with it here in October and we will see how it does.

Today i am going to start posting my highest rated plays in this thread also. I might as well treat it as a semi blog.

These plays have nothing to do with the Underdog Index Fund and should be treated separately.

Here is what im playing for saturday (during the day).

Bottom Line Plays: 0-0 ($0)

1. OU (pk)/Ga -6 (6pt teaser) $600 to win $500

2. Vandy -2.5 (-1.10) $550 to win $500


I like teasers much better in pro-sports but i will play a few in college along the way. I know everyone and their brother like Miss St today and the line is now (-2) at most shops but i played this one several days ago.

These plays are the highest on my board, i have a computer program that i use as a guide in making the selections.

Ill be back later today to list the plays for the Underdog Fund and to list any other big plays that i may have.

Mr. Progression

[coldhardfacts]

i have been using the system for a long while. i laid out the parameters for anyone to follow, long term. its your choice to play it, track it, fade it...

ill keep up with it here in October and we will see how it does.

Today i am going to start posting my highest rated plays in this thread also. I might as well treat it as a semi blog.

These plays have nothing to do with the Underdog Index Fund and should be treated separately.

Here is what im playing for saturday (during the day).

Bottom Line Plays: 0-0 ($0)

1. OU (pk)/Ga -6 (6pt teaser) $600 to win $500

2. Vandy -2.5 (-1.10) $550 to win $500


I like teasers much better in pro-sports but i will play a few in college along the way. I know everyone and their brother like Miss St today and the line is now (-2) at most shops but i played this one several days ago.

These plays are the highest on my board, i have a computer program that i use as a guide in making the selections.

Ill be back later today to list the plays for the Underdog Fund and to list any other big plays that i may have.

Mr. Progression

I don't know about my brother, but I like the Roon Dogs today.

[Mudcat]

All I can say is, if this works, there is no worse idea than posting it on a public forum.

Posting picks is fine for people who are just capping game-by-game. But it would be my worst nightmare to have one of my systems turn up on a public forum.

People will learn it, spread it around, people will flock like sheep and start beating you to the best numbers at key books.

There is just no good reason to do it - unless a few pats on the back from internet strangers has actual cash value for you.

Let's put it this way: you are a helluva lot nicer guy than me Mr. Progression (if this actually works).