Assuming one has 20% ROI and no Vig(even line) say hit rate of 60%.
If you flat bet 200 bet you would expect 120 wins and 80 loses so +40units
Now if you do 3 games chase, the chance of losing 3 straight would be =0.4*0.4*0.4 =6.4% and a lose would cost 1+2+4 = 7 units. Therefore, in 200 bets, one would expect to win 187 time and lose around 6.4x2 or 13times(round up) and bag 96 units.
Now, here is the question. Since 1 units for chase and flat betting would obviously different and as i understand 1unit of flat bet should be = 7/3(average of 3 games chase) = 2.3333 units. But when i recalculate the profit flat betting =40x2.3333 = 93.33 which is less than 96... when i fully expect +96units. Can someone explain where i went wrong?
Note: Obviously not rounding up would increase unit won when chasing.