[SBR Lou]

Will R. Federer win French Open? Yes +1150
Will R. Nadal win French Open? No +270




You can throw "recent form" out of the window. Go check out some of Federer's recent play leading up to the US Open, he was not always polished, and did not expend as much energy as Rafa did in the smaller events, but that's irrelevant.

He is seasoned and understands his limitations, why push your legs to the limit when you really only need to be in-form for the major? The best players in the game do not "need" warm-up events, they're just another check in the bank and an opportunity to work out and have fun after. The players like the 30/1 shots need these tune-up events, and if players like that are out of form leading up to a major the cautious approach applies. That approach is inapplicable to a guy that understands how to succeed in the 4th quarter.

The entire tennis community with the exception of FedEx fanboys have already crowned Rafael Nadal as the best player in the world, what with his six Grand Slam Titles since 2005 and all. I get that he has been incredibly successful, and has an incredible pedigree at RG, as evidenced by his four consecutive victories at the event - - but he's simply overvalued here. He's overvalued much like the LA Lakers or NY Yankees would be overvalued, as evidenced by the fact that he's a -315 favorite to win his fifth consecutive French Open. This serves as a great example of how the betting public tend to completely abandon all form of logic with their overvaluing of players.


To display just how far out this Nadal-is-the-best-ever movement has come, take a look at the pre-tourney odds of Roger Federer going into Wimbledon each year..

Wimbeldon 2003: Federer +500
Wimbledon 2004: Federer +125
Wimbledon 2005: Federer -162.5
Wimbledon 2006: Federer -250
Wimbledon 2007: Federer -175
Wimbedon 2008: Federer -110

Roger Federer was -175 to win his fifth consecutive Wimbledon, Rafa is -315 to win his fifth consecutive RG. Federer never exceeded -250 chalk at Wimbledon, although he was far and away the best grass player in the world year after year.

I strongly believe Nadal will fall, just as Federer did. I will even go so far as to say that I am certain that, should Nadal fall, it will be at the hands of the FedEx in the Finals.

Payback's a five letter word.

[daggerkobe]

[RogueScholar]

Even after reading it a second time, I'm still not sold. And if he ends up on the same side of the draw as Djokovic, he won't even make the final. Just play the matches, futures on the French this year are all pretty accurate considering we have a current No. 1 who is performing splendidly and has all the incentive in the world to rack up a record five consecutive French Open titles in the Open era.

[GatorFan]

Roger won't ever get the French Open for his entire life just like Pete Sampras...

[SBR Lou]

I heard the same comments in my thread where I picked Roger to win the US Open at +319.

Roger will surprise you guys.

[jjgold]

Roger will not even make qtrs, he is done and cannot take the pressure anymore.

[EaglesPhan36]

Getting paid per thread again? What's next - Novak Djokovic makes the semifinals of the French Open thread?

[mathdotcom]

This thread is hilarious. CrazyL must be in the poorhouse his tennis caping is so awful.
I love how a guy who has won 4 straight French Opens with incredible ease and has only gotten better the past year is overvalued at -315. The last 3 Wimbledons were somewhat contested by Nadal (obviously the last one). Federer never came close to pushing Nadal in the French like Nadal pushed Federer in Wimbledon.

I can't wait to return to this thread when Federer makes an early exit

[valdosta]

I heard the same comments in my thread where I picked Roger to win the US Open at +319.

Roger will surprise you guys.

Yeah because his success at the French Open rivals his success at the US Open. Great comparison.

[moonbeam]

Getting paid per thread again? What's next - Novak Djokovic makes the semifinals of the French Open thread?

How much money do SBR pay for such a thread?

[cuteboy86hi]

i can't see federer winning but each year chances of nadal loosing out will increase untill the bubble bursts.Not federer but someone else might knock him out.

[RogueScholar]

How much money do SBR pay for such a thread?

$42,000/year, Moonbeam

[James007]

yes definitely roger will win this french open.

[SBR Lou]

Will R. Federer win French Open? Yes +1150
Will R. Nadal win French Open? No +270

Federer beats Nadal in Madrid masters in straight sets as a +250 dog.

Sure hope people tailed these prices, as they will NOT be available after that absolute railroading Fed did today.

[GatorFan]

Federrer just lucky today since Nadal has no legs at all after facing these two heaviest opponents Verdasco and djokovic in the previous round while Federrer easily crushed A.rodick and Del potro. I have $ on Federrer for this game as well but I don't think Federrer can pass Nadal at French Open.

[EaglesPhan36]

How did I know Lou was going to bump this? LoL. Agreed with GatorFan. All Roger did today was seal his fate should he faced Nadal in the French. Nadal will remember this and crush him if they meet. I mean 6-4, 6-4 after Nadal played 4 hours the day before? That's not all that dominant. Good for Roger to get the win and some much needed confidene, but Roland Garros will be the same result if they meet as it's always been.

[jjgold]

Nadal wins easy

He was burnt out today and still only lost 6-4, 6-4

[valdosta]

Not to mention this "clay" played a lot like hardcourts. Nadal didn't like it from the beginning of the tourney. Today has no effect on what happens when/ if they meet at the FO again. Nadal loves the surface at the FO and has owned Roger on it.

[SBR Lou]

Will R. Federer win French Open? Yes +1150
Will R. Nadal win French Open? No +270

Pinnacles current prices:

Federer +732
Nadal No prop +230

[smitch124]

How much longer til this madness commences?

[yisman]

How much longer til this madness commences?

Check out the countdown

5 days and 15 hours.

[LT Profits]

Gotta give credit where credit is due, Nice going getting +1150 on a play that is now +732, especially since I don't expect price on Federer to turn around and go back up.

[valdosta]

Federer and Djokovic are on the same side of the draw. Federer will have it pretty easy until the semis but he won't beat Djokovic and Nadal back to back. hell IMO he won't beat Djokovic.

[The General]

Win or lose, Lou we got the absolute best of the bet here. 5/1 at thegreek now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Your boy is in trouble today.

[SBR Lou]

Your boy is in trouble today.

Because he dropped one set?

Jose is scrappy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dude. Two tie breaks against ACASUSO. And that first set, he had to work hard to win it, 10-8. Not to mention he had to rally from down 5-2 in the 2nd. I'm not talking about being in trouble today since he has righted the ship, but down the road ... someone with some skill will eat him alive.

[daggerkobe]

Oh great, now all we need is for someone to say Crazyl is a sharp. Wait, let me get my barf bag ready.

Of the remaining players whose futures odds hasnt gone up? Im sure pretty much all of them has, esp top 10. Regardless its not like he can hedge or anything until he makes the finals. Then Nadal will prob be -400 or so which makes it not so hot.

The only thing sharp about him is the knife he plunged into BBDs back.

[Shark79]

Another step to winning the title.

Good luck on your pick CrazyL ... hard to believe he will win the French Open though.

[yisman]

Acasuso should've won. I had that upset, too.

[The General]

Roger Federer hitting form in French Open

A splendid recovery in Paris shows the former world No1 is almost back to his best after months of anguish and uncertainty

There is an air of hope and vitality in Paris, for Roger Federer and all who are moved by the rich uncertainties of sporting contest. Only a few weeks ago, the prospect of another title for Rafael Nadal, claimed without challenge and concluded by a ritual thrashing of Federer, invited boredom for most, dread for the Swiss.

But after months of anguish and uncertainty, Federer seems a liberated man, the attacking genius of old. Yesterday, he dealt with difficult conditions, with the red dust swirling around as if it was a Texas cattle drive, and an awkward opponent, in Paul-Henri Mathieu, who went for his shots with nothing to lose and made an outrageous number of them. After losing the first set, Federer tightened his game and took control, winning the third-round match 4-6 6-1 6-4 6-4.

His cause was further improved by the very surprising straight-sets defeat of Novak Djokovic, who was the most obvious danger on his side of the draw. Djokovic was flat, almost mediocre, as he lost all three sets to Philipp Kohlschreiber by six games to four. Sometimes, Djokovic wilts in the heat and he admitted that he had no answers to the German, who played as well as required. Nor did Djokovic have a good answer to what was wrong. “I played too passive,” he said. “I couldn’t find my rhythm at all.”

After holding match points against Nadal in Madrid, Djokovic had legitimate hopes of challenging him for the French title and he was very disappointed. But he has a history of losing the physical battle. At the Australian Open this year, he pulled out during his match with Andy Roddick, just as he had at Monte Carlo against Federer in 2008.

It’s not hard to trace Federer’s new-found spirit and confidence, for a fortnight back he cast aside his misery and five consecutive defeats against Nadal by beating him emphatically in Madrid, and on clay. Now that Nadal owns all that Federer holds dear in the game, the psychological tables are turned. Nadal has to defend his position as No 1, as well as his titles, and holding the castle is less natural to him than marauding. Furthermore, those clamouring at the walls are acting for the moment in the common interest to bring him down. In Madrid, Djokovic wounded Nadal in the semi-finals in a three-set match lasting four hours; Federer finished him off.

When Federer was at the summit, he had one adversary to really worry about: Nadal. Nadal has several: Djokovic, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Federer.

While Djokovic lost tamely, others who might threaten Nadal remain. Del Potro beat Igor Andreev with ease and has yet to drop a set in three rounds. Nor has Tsonga, who brushed aside Christophe Rochus. But it is the resurgence of Federer that is most intriguing and welcome. His fall over the past year had a tragic quality. Hailed as the athletic wonder of our age, his adornments were stripped from him one by one.

When he lost to Nadal in the Australian Open final, Federer wept, and even those who support and admire Nadal had to shed a tear. For while Nadal and most in the hunting pack all have astonishing and varied gifts, none brings such fearful beauty to the game as Federer.

Perhaps he needed to hit the bottom before he could rebound. During the clay-court season, he worked hard on his game and condition, trying to take his game from 98% to 100%, the margin by which he reckoned he had slipped.

He found the two per cent and although there were extenuating circumstances for Nadal in Madrid, Federer was scintillating, his old self, attacking flat out, imposing his own game rather than trying to prove he could match Nadal in a war of attrition. And the weapons, so recently rusty, gleamed in the sun. Federer’s service thundered; his forehand was devastating, but sure.

Most of all, he had the surge of confidence, and that, of course, comes in and recedes not in margins but floods.

The imperative question is whether Federer can sustain his resurgence, the flood-tide of optimism. If he can, he might not be able to win at Roland Garros — with Nadal around, that seems beyond him, and Nadal is crushing all-comers as usual. But Federer might manage to give Nadal a contest and go on to achieve two goals closer to his heart: he can win Wimbledon again; and before the year is out he can be the world No 1.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/spo...cle6396779.ece

[jjgold]

Fed looks shaky so far but he is winning

[SBR Lou]

Will R. Nadal win French Open? No +270

Nadal loses in 4 sets to Soderling.

[VegasDave]

Would have been even more impressive if you'd have called that one Lou

[SBR Lou]

Would have been even more impressive if you'd have called that one Lou

Will R. Nadal win French Open? No +270

If I thought only Federer had a shot to beat Nadal, I would've just hung my hat on the pick below as the odds are obviously much better,

Will R. Federer win French Open? Yes +1150