Originally Posted by
PharaohUB
Not saying I'm a winner but it is definately possible. Patience is key. Been doing this for about ten years and it really is about picking your spots. It's a lot like the stock market. Both teams in a matchup have an intrinsic value just like a stock does. Whenever public sentiment is against your team (stock) for no good reason there is value in that bet (stock). Bookies want even action, line is set to get even action - they aren't gamblers. You are really betting against other people and you need to outsmart them.
If you bought BP stock a week after the oil spill and you would have had a huge return on your money in a couple of months. Same if you had shorted oil when it was at $150 a barrel and all the pundits were claiming it was going to go higher and higher, etc. Bet against the yankees/lakers. Bet against guys like Rosol the match after they take down Nadal. Bet on unranked favorites against ranked opponents in college ball. Two weeks ago every post in here was about how god damn awful the cubs were. They're 7-3 in their last ten at an average price between +150-200. Remember Dickey on fire big Sunday night baseball game and he was a dog? That should have told us all something. Bet on teams when they are down, bet against teams when they are on a roll. The idea of momentum, and form are over-rated and people just misunderstand how statistics apply to real life. There are what like 35 baseball teams? Do 35 separate 10 flips of a coin. In that 35 times one or two times heads is likely to go 8-2 or 9-1. It doesnt mean that next flip isn't still 50-50. Same goes if a pitcher has a bad couple of starts, etc. If anything that pitcher might be more focused, and now you've got a more focused pitcher at a great price, because the money is rolling in against the guy who's pitched a couple bad games. If you have patience to do this you will be beating the instrinsic value of the bet by 10-20 cents each time.
Not sure if this made any sense to anyone. It's late and I'm tired and went off on a tangent there...