1. 04-02-12 05:04 PM #1
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Should I hedge or not?

    In a similar situation as WVGambler, but I have Kansas winning.

    If you add up my betpoints winnings (15000 for 1st in contest and 980 for a bet on myself to win contest) and money I will win in brackets if Kansas wins ($480), you come out to roughly 1170.

    I don't know that it's worth it to hedge 1170 -320 and make back $350.

    I'm hoping Kansas enters half up and I can bet on Kentucky 2h to get -110.

    Still debating though... let me know what you all think!
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  2. 04-02-12 05:06 PM #2
    shaunovery
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    Let it ride Ryan Kentucky will win everyone is taking about them beating a nbA team no such talk for Kansas
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  3. 04-02-12 05:08 PM #3
    Dirty Sanchez
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    Kansas has been slow starting the whole tournament....see the same tonight
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  4. 04-02-12 05:09 PM #4
    GamblerSpirit
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    Kentucky is winning. Use that to your advantage. Hedge if you have to, Ryan Leaf. You're on life tilt right now.
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  5. 04-02-12 05:10 PM #5
    BIGDAY
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    Kansas is scary. Real quiet in tourney also.
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  6. 04-02-12 05:12 PM #6
    shaunovery
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    Everyone over thinking this one slow starts for Kansas against Ohio state purdue Detroit

    They can't give Kentucky a10 point start
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  7. 04-02-12 05:20 PM #7
    Noles1992
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    I take it your including the Bovada contest also? Either way you look as if you will cash something on that win or lose. Remember you are part of there Public contest also in which you cash there also.
    Its tough to hedge the moneyline when Kentucky is such a favorite. Hope U have the lead at half to make it easier and less risk for ya! GL to you !
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  8. 04-02-12 05:21 PM #8
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noles1992 View Post
    I take it your including the Bovada contest also? Either way you look as if you will cash something on that win or lose. Remember you are part of there Public contest also in which you cash there also.
    Its tough to hedge the moneyline when Kentucky is such a favorite. Hope U have the lead at half to make it easier and less risk for ya! GL to you !
    Oh crap... don't think I got in the Bovada contest.
    I am in a few bracket pools w/ friends that I'll cash in if Kansas wins.
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  9. 04-02-12 05:27 PM #9
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noles1992 View Post
    I take it your including the Bovada contest also? Either way you look as if you will cash something on that win or lose. Remember you are part of there Public contest also in which you cash there also.
    Its tough to hedge the moneyline when Kentucky is such a favorite. Hope U have the lead at half to make it easier and less risk for ya! GL to you !
    Completely forgot I was in this...
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  10. 04-02-12 05:30 PM #10
    Noles1992
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    yeah bro go check it! Thanks for the points, your ranked like 89th of all the BOVADA PLAYERS and 1st in the SBR league . I saw your name when I was checking mine out.
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  11. 04-02-12 05:32 PM #11
    SEAHAWKHARRY
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    Kentucky wins Ryan no problem!!
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  12. 04-02-12 05:35 PM #12
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noles1992 View Post
    yeah bro go check it! Thanks for the points, your ranked like 89th of all the BOVADA PLAYERS and 1st in the SBR league . I saw your name when I was checking mine out.
    I think i'd finish between 11-20th if Kansas wins for 300 w/ a 3x rollover. Zoomed through the brackets quick.
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  13. 04-02-12 05:36 PM #13
    The Giant
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    Stand pat.

    No guts no glory.

    Good luck.
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  14. 04-02-12 05:38 PM #14
    EmpireMaker
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    Hedge away KY wins
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  15. 04-02-12 05:58 PM #15
    SEAHAWKHARRY
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    Kentucky wind Ryan so hedge if u need to my friend
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  16. 04-02-12 05:59 PM #16
    Noles1992
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    yeah I think the SBR group is like $250 with a 5x rollover. Anyway to hedge with a first half moneyline -105. might be better than laying the longer odds on the game. And if win or lose that, always can make a move from there.
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  17. 04-02-12 06:15 PM #17
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noles1992 View Post
    yeah I think the SBR group is like $250 with a 5x rollover. Anyway to hedge with a first half moneyline -105. might be better than laying the longer odds on the game. And if win or lose that, always can make a move from there.
    Brutal... 1h is -4 KY and -220 for the ML on BetIslands. Don't think gonna make a 1h bet. Still debating betting Kansas +6.5 for game.
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  18. 04-02-12 06:17 PM #18
    Rookie-Capper
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    stand with kentucky
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  19. 04-02-12 06:18 PM #19
    minet123
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    Hedging is for gardeners

    but i hope this helps
    Proper answer to "Should I hedge?"
    You should only hedge if:

    1. You think the hedge bet is +EV on its own.
    2. You overbet the original side and need to reduce your exposure for bankroll considerations.
    3. You stand to win a life-altering amount of money (this usually only applies to contests, 100-1 futures, game shows, etc.)

    Hedging with a -EV or even neutral EV bet reduces variance at the expense of also reducing EV. Since the goal for most bettors is to maximize EV (while maintaining an appropriate risk of ruin), you do not want to voluntarily give away your EV by hedging for the sake of hedging.
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  20. 04-02-12 06:27 PM #20
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rookie-Capper View Post
    stand with kentucky
    Think I worded this wrong somehow? I'm on Kansas... debating if it's worth it to hedge Kentucky at -320
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  21. 04-02-12 06:28 PM #21
    Living The Dream
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    You have to hedge this, I don't see Kansas hanging with Kentucky
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  22. 04-02-12 06:29 PM #22
    Noles1992
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    I thought Bovada had the first half at -105 I had it wrong. Tough call Bro! Hell I need Kenucky for a measley 5-6th place payout. Think I will pull for Kansas for ya!
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  23. 04-02-12 06:31 PM #23
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Wait till 2nd half atleast.....Root your ass for for Kansas, fukk a hedge
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  24. 04-02-12 06:36 PM #24
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    Wait till 2nd half atleast.....Root your ass for for Kansas, fukk a hedge
    I think that's what I'm gonna do... -320 is just so steep.
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  25. 04-02-12 06:37 PM #25
    RyanLeafOfBets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noles1992 View Post
    I thought Bovada had the first half at -105 I had it wrong. Tough call Bro! Hell I need Kenucky for a measley 5-6th place payout. Think I will pull for Kansas for ya!
    I've got about an hour and a half to decide. Gonna go work out and grab a couple beers hahah. I appreciate your input as well as everyone else's on this thread.
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  26. 04-02-12 06:39 PM #26
    jjesco425
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    coach cal will not lay off gas after last blunder to kansas in championship game... will not let ft's dictate this game... cats by 15 or better
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  27. 04-02-12 06:40 PM #27
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by shaunovery View Post
    Let it ride Ryan Kentucky will win everyone is taking about them beating a nbA team no such talk for Kansas
    If Kentucky will win, why would he let it ride?
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  28. 04-02-12 06:41 PM #28
    yisman
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    As for my opinion, I would hedge, but only some.

    5 Dimes has UK -310.

    I'd bet 310 to win 100 so it's not a total loss if Kentucky wins, but you still retain most of your winnings if KU wins.

    Waiting until halftime is the same as not hedging at all. You never know what will happen in the first half.
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  29. 04-02-12 06:45 PM #29
    Living The Dream
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyanLeafOfBets View Post
    I think that's what I'm gonna do... -320 is just so steep.
    It's steep for a reason. I think waiting until half is good though. You can't go wrong here no matter what you do, as long as you do something.
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  30. 04-02-12 06:47 PM #30
    MoneyLineDawg
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    If you have live betting wait till Kansas goes on a run if at all

    Its a gamble man, -310 is not worth the hedge if you think Kansas has a decent shot (I do)
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  31. 04-02-12 06:51 PM #31
    Noles1992
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    If you have live betting wait till Kansas goes on a run if at all

    Its a gamble man, -310 is not worth the hedge if you think Kansas has a decent shot (I do)
    Yeah your right Kansas goes up a few points, than the line goes down with Live betting. Not a bad idea at all!
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  32. 04-02-12 06:54 PM #32
    yisman
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    I always live bet these games regardless.

    Heritage or Bovada sometimes hangs a good line. I have those two and Pinnacle up.
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  33. 04-02-12 10:49 PM #33
    EmpireMaker
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmpireMaker View Post
    Hedge away KY wins
    Hope you were able to hedge some.
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