[Dkid]

To start off i really wish i had a knowledgeable gambling friend i could bounce this off in full detail, but since i dont, i'll seek advice from you degens

So i was in my physics class today when the gambler in me started thinking and I think i came up with a plan that will guarantee me winning money.

Then i thought to myself, im not that smart and if this is true some one would of definitely thought about it already. But as the day passed and i couldnt get it off my mind so i did the math and calculated outcomes and i can't see how this isn't true.

I'm not gonna say what it is, because
1. i don't wanna look like a fool if im over looking something.
2. if im on to something i wanna ride it out and make $$$.
3. i don't want to get myself in to trouble with the wrong people.

Now I obviously made this thread for a reason and not just to be dumb. I have some questions.

So i noticed that *my online book* wont allow me to place bets when it doesn't meet their criteria of legal plays, (i.e correlated play). If nothing prompts me and the bet goes through its technically a legal bet and all their legal bets should be honored and payed out right?

Well anyways i wouldn't place it in the same book because obviously i feel that they'd catch on. (im feeling like a cheater i must admit) So my second question is do books communicate between each other if the sense "fishy" activity? They have all my info so the could easily ask another book for my bet history and put the dots together, but do they?

Is it best to use a local as my second book? Even though i ALWAYS pay my dues, i've still always avoided locals because i don't wanna anyone showing up at my door step, or jumping me at the mall. If anything i will make the 4 hr drive to Vegas weekly once i turn 21 to cash in.

last question who is the best professional capper that maintains close to 50%. If i do go through with this i wanna place at least multiple other bets/ day and lose small amounts of money so they don't suspect anything.

[mh217]

ok here comes another reduced juice/teaser/ml strategy..dont drive yourself crazy..just stay in school.

[Dkid]

ok here comes another reduced juice/teaser/ml strategy..dont drive yourself crazy..just stay in school.

way off.

[rfr3sh]

books to not communicate if you are arbing then you will get limited thats about it

[warriorfan707]

Take it from someone who has thought of everything and anything to bring down the house.

Even if your system is a winner, you are not disciplined enough to utilize it properly because you are a human being.

It may work for a while but it wont work forever, and the times that it doesnt work will more than cancel out your profits.

[Dkid]

books to not communicate if you are arbing then you will get limited thats about it

well im not gonna be arbing, but if they don't communicate how would they even find that out?

[mh217]

gl hope you take em for a couple of million

[rfr3sh]

well im not gonna be arbing, but if they don't communicate how would they even find that out?

they know if you are arbing some books like SIA and Bodog are slow moving or offer off market dog prices
they obviously know this because they know the fair price offered at most books, and if you are hitting up all of these off numbers for big $$ they know whats up

[nick86]

let us know what your doing and we'll let you know if you'll succeed or not

[Dkid]

Take it from someone who has thought of everything and anything to bring down the house.

Even if your system is a winner, you are not disciplined enough to utilize it properly because you are a human being.

It may work for a while but it wont work forever, and the times that it doesnt work will more than cancel out your profits.

trust me i know all about this, i myself will admit ive had some of the worst money management at times and not only that but have made stupid bets. If this did play out right i would make sure that i would stop gambling and take up another hobby and just see this as a small business.

im not gonna quit my job or drop out cus of this. i just think it easy free money that with patience and correct money management will pay off.

[Dkid]

gl hope you take em for a couple of million

let us know what your doing and we'll let you know if you'll succeed or not

i hate how i cant read sarcasm over the internet. Really though i just did the math over again it still shows + money.
ill ask my calc2 teacher tomorrow see if im doing something wrong. Honestly if i made a mistake and I'm making a fool of myself i will admit it.

[secretstash]

there is no guaranteed way to win.. sorry man its impossible and ONLY way it isnt is if ur book is completely a shit no pay book.

so imo.. just stop playing there altogether unless they have paid u dozens of times (if so win small amounts and withdrawal.. dont slam them for 5k+ every time)

if they have never paid u, chances are they are F/D rated sbr book or stiff book?

gl man

my guess is the min u post ur lil discovery here, there will be 20 math geniuses who will debunk ur +EV theories on it....



-stash

[KingJD31]

stop being a puss and say what the method is

[Dkid]

they know if you are arbing some books like SIA and Bodog are slow moving or offer off market dog prices
they obviously know this because they know the fair price offered at most books, and if you are hitting up all of these off numbers for big $$ they know whats up

yeah i thought about this. thats why i mentioned a 50% capper so i can always be placing bets and not just my system bets. god knows my capping % is terrible.

[DrIn$entive]

So i noticed that *my online book* wont allow me to place bets when it doesn't meet their criteria of legal plays, (i.e correlated play). If nothing prompts me and the bet goes through its technically a legal bet and all their legal bets should be honored and payed out right?

There are some threads in this forum where posters have had their correlated parlay winnings confiscated, some even months later.

[Dkid]

there is no guaranteed way to win.. sorry man its impossible and ONLY way it isnt is if ur book is completely a shit no pay book.

so imo.. just stop playing there altogether unless they have paid u dozens of times (if so win small amounts and withdrawal.. dont slam them for 5k+ every time)

if they have never paid u, chances are they are F/D rated sbr book or stiff book?

gl man

my guess is the min u post ur lil discovery here, there will be 20 math geniuses who will debunk ur +EV theories on it....



-stash

well first off its not an F rated book. i played at BetUs when i first turn 18 and learned my lesson quickly. I dont wanna say what book because once again i want it to work but i will say that you would have confidence playing at it. Secondly, i know the possibility of this is slim but that is why i will ask a mathematician tomorrow.

stop being a puss and say what the method is

i love puss

[rfr3sh]

it sounds like you want to use multiple books, but if you are using one you can always try the SBR book with points for a while

[Dkid]

There are some threads in this forum where posters have had their correlated parlay winnings confiscated, some even months later.

this is honestly what im worried about. eventually it will trend in my history and all my money will be gone. ill probably withdraw a lot.

[Dkid]

it sounds like you want to use multiple books, but if you are using one you can always try the SBR book with points for a while

i will definitely do trial runs before ever using real money.

but hey i appreciate your input.

[Shaudius]

So i noticed that *my online book* wont allow me to place bets when it doesn't meet their criteria of legal plays, (i.e correlated play). If nothing prompts me and the bet goes through its technically a legal bet and all their legal bets should be honored and payed out right?

I'm guessing it has something to do with this, so its some sort of coordinated parlay at one book with some sort of effective arb at another, even though the OP says he isn't arbing I'm guessing its an attempt to arb two bets in a coordinated manner based on what he's said, but I'm sure if this could be done it would have been effectively by now.

[Dkid]

I'm guessing it has something to do with this, so its some sort of coordinated parlay at one book with some sort of effective arb at another, even though the OP says he isn't arbing I'm guessing its an attempt to arb two bets in a coordinated manner based on what he's said, but I'm sure if this could be done it would have been effectively by now.

i said correlated parlay because it was the first thing that came to mind. And yeah i know im not that smart so i dont see how no one else could have thought about this before. that is why although im excited i know the chances are super slim.

[DrIn$entive]

Be careful.

Books have rules in place to protect themselves, here's 5dimes.

At managerial discretion, correlated plays will be voided or split into separate straight wagers with the risk amount divided equally. Plays on correlated events include: multiple selections on the same team/player in the same event, multiple selections against the same team/player in the same event, or any other combination where one event directly affects further selections in the play, including Live In-Play wagers. Players will never be given the benefit if there is any doubt regarding intentions of correlated plays and winnings will be voided. No warnings will be given.


A selection made after an event begins based on occurrences that have developed while in-play, is considered a "past-post", and will be handled as blatant theft. This applies for all regular game lines or when play resumes in live wagering. All events intended for in-play offering will be noted as such on the wagering option.


As you can see above, just because a books software might allow a cp it will still fall on the player to ensure that it isn't.

Sometimes we hear about about a young player who only has one book and places a bet after the start of a game- honestly without knowing the actual start time of the game, he just takes the start time listed in the book as being correct. This kid would now be labeled a shot-taker for not checking the scoreboards or ensuring there wasn't a change to the original start time. Or if the book leaves the line up after the game started it still falls on the player.

[Dkid]

well i double checked it with my math teacher and he showed me i was doing something wrong. Its still +ev but by significantly less. I feel that everyone thinks im full of shit so i will say it involves betting 3 sides to one game. Doesnt make sense, well thats the thing it does and it will always be push-push-win (a tiny amount).

ill try some out this week and see if it will be worth doing. I realize now i will need a giant bank roll to make this work, which i dont have.

[cant call it]

Let's hear it

[warriorfan707]

Be careful.

Books have rules in place to protect themselves, here's 5dimes.

At managerial discretion, correlated plays will be voided or split into separate straight wagers with the risk amount divided equally. Plays on correlated events include: multiple selections on the same team/player in the same event, multiple selections against the same team/player in the same event, or any other combination where one event directly affects further selections in the play, including Live In-Play wagers. Players will never be given the benefit if there is any doubt regarding intentions of correlated plays and winnings will be voided. No warnings will be given.


A selection made after an event begins based on occurrences that have developed while in-play, is considered a "past-post", and will be handled as blatant theft. This applies for all regular game lines or when play resumes in live wagering. All events intended for in-play offering will be noted as such on the wagering option.


As you can see above, just because a books software might allow a cp it will still fall on the player to ensure that it isn't.

Sometimes we hear about about a young player who only has one book and places a bet after the start of a game- honestly without knowing the actual start time of the game, he just takes the start time listed in the book as being correct. This kid would now be labeled a shot-taker for not checking the scoreboards or ensuring there wasn't a change to the original start time. Or if the book leaves the line up after the game started it still falls on the player.

Its posts like these that make me never want to deal with any online books again.