[brahmabull117]

There's no square or sharp plays, there's good plays and bad plays. There's good plays based on objective and logical analysis of games and matchups, and there's bad plays based on emotion and myths. The fact that so many people here think that a play backed by the public is automatically a bad play is mind boggling. For every good pick the public makes (pats on Monday night), they make a terrible play (taking a severely banged up giants team on the road against redskins), so it really means nothing either way


Picking games is not rocket science, there's so many times here people talk themselves out of a great play because "it seems too easy". Many of the best handicappers on the site win because they bet with common sense and objective analysis. That guy "homosayswhat" always wins because he bets on good and smart plays that he came up with, not because "vegas did this, line moved here, trap bet, blah blah blah". He's my favorite poster here because he doesn't buy this sharp/square crap and just has the confidence to believe in his picks

The reason most people are bad at betting is cause they bet with their heart and not their mind. They bet on msu to win tonight even if all prior history indicates a solid victory for lsu because they WANT msu to win. These are the people who bet against justin verlander even when doing that has shown to be bankroll suicide all season long because they want to go against the grain

Bruce Lee - "the key to brilliance is simplicity"

[iifold]

Dwayne,

The only way you're gonna beat this shit is if you make 10 plays a year, not 10 plays a day... No matter what the fukk you call em'...

[brahmabull117]

Dwayne,

The only way you're gonna beat this shit is if you make 10 plays a year, not 10 plays a day... No matter what the fukk you call em'...

I usually make 1 to 3 plays a day in baseball and 4 to 6 during football season


I find football to be a much more predictable sport than baseball

[Nats' Fan]

Brahma: you obviously know about sports, but what people get on you about is, you only play the favorites. That won't win you money in the long run. You need to mix some dogs in there. It's nothing about being "sharp or square". It's just what you have to do to be a successful sports bettor. Good luck.

[brahmabull117]

Brahma: you obviously know about sports, but what people get on you about is, you only play the favorites. That won't win you money in the long run. You need to mix some dogs in there. It's nothing about being "sharp or square". It's just what you have to do to be a successful sports bettor. Good luck.

Not true, I'm playing the bears this weekend and ill play more underdogs as the season goes on and certain bad teams establish themselves as being competent ATS teams


I just don't do it in baseball cause I hate losing and I can't stand to win 40 percent of my bets, even if it may be profitable money wise.


I think its ignorant though to say 1 form of betting is better than another. As long as u make smart plays and win consistently, it doesn't matter if u take huge favorites or huge underdogs. There's people here who make money betting on underdogs by going against proven unprofitable big name pitchers- aj burnett, john lackey, and there's people like me who make money betting on proven profitable pitchers - greinke, weaver, kennedy, etc...

[MendozaLine]

Having knowledge about a sport has nothing to do with picking a winner ATS.

But keep thinking you know something that vegas doesn't.

[brahmabull117]

Having knowledge about a sport has nothing to do with picking a winner ATS.

But keep thinking you know something that vegas doesn't.

Winning in betting =/= outsmarting vegas


Winning in betting = outsmarting the public



Vegas sets lines based on public perception of the 2 teams. Take for example the lsu game today. The line was -150 which means that msu wins about 4 out of 10 times. Can u really tell me, with the utter domination u saw today in msu getting 25 total yards in the 2nd half, with msu getting outgained by such a huge margin, that MSU would beat LSU 4 out of 10 matchups??


Hell I don't think msu beats lsu even 2 times out of 10 matchups

[Ernie Mccracken]

Vegas sets lines based on public perception of the 2 teams

Not sure if I understand correctly. The public perception of LSU was that they should have been favored by a lot more than 3.5 over MSU.

[brahmabull117]

Not sure if I understand correctly. The public perception of LSU was that they should have been favored by a lot more than 3.5 over MSU.

Then I don't know simply because I don't care how vegas does their business, I know they make a lot of money cause 90 percent of sports bettors are idiots


I just keep it simple, if my analysis of a game leads me to believe that 1 team has a much bigger advantage than the line would indicate, I bet on it

[BookiesBernanke]

If you spent half the time capping that you do making these dumb ass threads - you would be a gambling GOD

[GunShard]

There are strategic cappers and impulsive cappers.

[pavyracer]

Squares 19 - Sharps 6

[JGILL50]

Not sure if I understand correctly. The public perception of LSU was that they should have been favored by a lot more than 3.5 over MSU.

hes kinda right about that. Vegas sets the lines on the action they want to receive on the game. it was obvious that vegas wanted LSU money. it didnt work out fir them this time but there are 100000 things to bet on everyday.

[wantitall4moi]

These arent true every time but they are really the only thing that can be said when trying to describe a sharp versus quare.

A sharp guy is going to bet a line (right or wrong side) before most other people. Being right or wrong in the pick has nothing to do with defining him as sharp, just that he will bet a line before it moves.he is also not afraid to bet the other side, and most likely is looking to bet that side anyway once it moves enough. If it moves enough.

Sharper guys also know why a line moves or at least have an educated guess. They can also put some sort of value on a line move or a line or a spread,and beyond that of a recreational player who doesnt really care what the line is and just bet the team whenever and at whatever number they can get.

Sharp and square has nothing to do with the ability to pick a right and wrong side. Sharp guys just know what advantages there are to looking at the whole picture and either betting early, betting late or watching and waiting.

Just because someone is sharp doesnt mean they win anymore than the next guy, they just help themselves out by getting that smallest of edges, even if it is 1-1.5% that it takes to actually profit long term. So the difference between a sharp guy and a square guy is less than 3% I would say in the long run. But that has nothing to do with actually picking a side, just getting the right number that the side can win at.

[TheMoneyShot]

There are sharp plays and square plays Mr Bull. Line flow dictates most of them. Not all... but Most.

[ebbearsfb1]

How many threads you going to back about this?

[mighty maron]

Bruce Lee - "the key to brilliance is simplicity"