[Inspirited]

I study the lottery. I know it's a negative EV game, yet I study it anyway, not all the time but I do it. I do it with roulette too. Twice I've run up near 400 betpoints starting from like 8 and 19 with martingaling and switching after two losses from black to red or vice versa. Twice the big loss streak took them all back. I plan on trying it again!

I know that these are unbeatable games. I have a problem. I'm not even a gambler, but it's like I think you need to embrace gambler fallacies if you're gonna be gambling. Superstition is just part of the deal of gambling. (I don't consider you a gambler if you're a sharp at sportsbetting, blackjack or poker. You're an investor or as some poker pro somewhere, maybe here? said you're an "equity analyst")

I could have been learning about creating sports betting models during this time. Instead I've tried to find special +EV subsets in negative EV games. Everytime I think I've found one I know I messed up somewhere and eventually find out where I went wrong, but first I let myself fantasize of the winnings coming my way if the strategy were implemented.

Recently I've written programs to simulate cash 5 lottery and roulette. I wish parrondo applied to casino games, but I it does not . It's sad to see people believing that it does and parrot it around. It does not, but as a gambler you have to believe that it does.

I'm semi-lazy. I do take time to attempt to do research, but just not the right kind of research. This year I finally learned to do some programming. I've been wanting to learn a programming language for years, but I never got up to it/found a good tutorial until recently. (Kind of wish I knew about programming before I went to college or at least took a class in college. I might have considered it as a major. It's can be fun to solve problems when I'm up to it.)

Anyway, somehow I ended up building a scraper for starting pitcher ERAs. After that I kind of rested with the learning and haven't learned anything since and ended up putting in moneyline data by hand, which does take time.

With this data I look at one simple statistic, starting pitcher ERA differences. I look for profitable subsets based on these differences using past moneylines over a 4 year period(the most I've felt like doing) in excel. I know this is a totally invalid approach, but I originally thought it gave me a better chance at winning than last year's approach and I suppose it has.

I try to squeeze out as many units as I can. The first two months I found like 30 units average per season. This month I found like 30-45 units average per season. Does it work like this when actually trying to bet? Nope.

In actuality I made ~11 units the first month, ~6 the second and am standing at .5 for this month. I focused on dogs the first month. Blindly betting dogs produced ~30 units, so I only caught 1/3 of that movement. That was disappointing. I focused on home teams during the second month. They had their worst performance in May since 07. As for this month, I haven't gotten anything going.

I now believe that the lines I used are opening lines. I should have been checking opening lines instead of betting lines that already split apart. I've been killed on lines from -109 to +109. A lot of these games probably opened at -105/-105, so some bets I would not have been on, some bets I would have been on and other bets I would have been on the other side. I haven't checked what my results would have been had I been using opening lines for my bets yet. I hope I would have gained units.

So, I'm up like 18 units after 2 months and 2 weeks. I started in July last year and after 1 month and 3 weeks I was up 20 units and within 9 days I was back at break even. I hope this year's approach does not melt down like that. If it does, it's back to the drawing board. My next approach will most likely involve modeling.

When I was losing last year I would always think I was being too mechanical in my picks. I think I've kept these losing mechanical ways when picking games on my own. My system is up 18 units. If I were to bet my own picks instead I'd be down like 60 units. This is actually a beautiful thing. I've been keeping track of these bets and the fading of these bets. I'd be up 40 units fading myself. This is awesome. If I can consistently be this bad I don't need a system. I don't need a model. I could potentially be 80 - 100 unit fade material. That gives me joy to be so bad. I love it.

I am just rambling on.

During the recent NBA season I tried several approaches, following simple statistical trends. It did not work out too well. I had good starts and then they went to junk. I also followed a particular moneyline dog movement, and it went to hell the moment I got on it. I don't know how it did during the last month of the season. This is why trend following can be very bad.

During the end I tried a new approach and went 54-41 in actual bets. I even noticed that I was winning at games I did not bet on, so I started to pick every game just to see how well I did. I went 63-36. Too bad I did not bet on those. During the playoffs I also did not bet, but went 42-37 for +1 unit. I did not really pay enough attention then. I think I could have been 8 wins better for a 50-29 record, but that is just speculation.

Anyway, my approach was to follow results/spreads every night. I got intune with how teams were doing. Sometimes I would take into account past performances verses opponents if I thought they were relevant. I would take into account injuries and B2B performances. I would look at scoring averages also. To gain more information I would also check out what fellow SBRers thought about the games. For some games I would be on them early, for most I would have to wait. I must have been betting into a lot of WA numbers. I think the additional info helped me.

I am looking forward to trying this approach for a whole NBA season. I know the sample size is small and I'm most likely going to find out that I can't win this way, but it's fun to think that I could win this way. I'm actually thinking about trying this approach with WNBA. I would love to win without modeling.

I really really want create model for NFL this year. It's my favorite sport. I was horrendous last year. I basically gave up sports betting after that( or so I thought). It was so bad.

Ok, I'm done. Aint nobody gonna read all this.

[underthe total]

are you on crack?
or meth?

this write up blows and its about something stupid