SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Why Kentucky is the Play (Write-up)
For weeks now, I have been very high on the Kentucky Wildcats. If you follow college basketball closely, you know that this team has grown immensely over the course of the season. They have gone from a team that was trying to find its identity early on to a team that has a true identity as we have now reached the Final Four. This Wildcats team, unlike last year's edition, plays as a team. The talent advantage is evident, but they have consistently outworked their opponents and that is why they are where they are. In short, this team's identity comes down to 2 things: Defense and the ability to stay in the moment.
It is one thing to have talent and athleticism and I'm not gonna act like Kentucky is at a disadvantage when it comes to those but it is another to use that talent and athleticism the right way. These players have bought into the belief that defense wins. Liggins is as good as it gets defensively. He uses his length to disrupt the opponent and force them into bad shots. But the more important thing is the great team defense these guys play. Kemba Walker is a hell of a player and he has done a great job of not only taking over games by scoring but by involving his teammates. Still, he is UConn's offense. Kentucky will be able to contain Walker with strong team defense and when Kemba is able to get to the rim, he'll be met by Josh Harrellson.
I really can't say enough about Harrellson. His numbers are showing that he's having a great tournament but it's really so much more than that. The offensive rebounds are demoralizing for the other team. Even if he doesn't get the putback, Harrellson is often able to kick it back out and there is usually an open shooter with so many players crashing the boards and trying to keep Harrellson from grabbing the rebound. Which leads me to my next point - Kentucky hits big shots from the perimeter. Remember last year when they were something like 0-for-20 from 3's against West Virginia in the Elite 8? That's simply not the case with this year's team. Knight, Jones, Lamb, Miller, Liggins... take your pick. They can all knock down shots from outside. Particularly in the college game, 3 pointers play a huge role in the momentum of the game so Kentucky's ability to hit 3s is a big time advantage.
Like I said, Kentucky has the ability to stay in the moment. They have some real cool customers and their biggest clutch performer is Brandon Knight. 2 game-winning shots in the tournament so far for him; the game seems to slow down when he has the ball late and you just get that feeling that he is going to make a play. Some guys love the big moment and he is one of them. The entire team in general though has been able to play well during crunch time - playing in some hostile SEC environments, they have come a long way from close losses at Georgia, at Alabama, at Vandy, and at Arkansas. They were able to win some close battles on their home floor against Florida and Vanderbilt before picking up a really nice win at Tennessee in a game that I thought propelled them into the tournament. The Vols were in control most of that game until late in the second half when the Wildcats took over. Down 1 with 5 and change to play, Kentucky dominated the final minutes of that game and a bit 3 by Darius Miller sealed the deal. Looking back, that game may not seem so impressive considering what's gone on at Tennessee but that was a huge game for the Vols in their home finale. I will always look back at that win as being the one that changed this Kentucky team (KY went on to win the SEC tourney, including a decisive championship game win against a very good Florida team).
The Wildcats had their scare against Princeton but I really think this team is primed to win the title. UConn is going to put forth a great fight and the game should be a hell of a battle but overall I just think Kentucky's defense is going to give Walker and the rest of the Huskies fits. Oriakhi won't be able to do much against Harrellson inside and Kentucky will hit the big shots that will ultimately give them the edge.
We all know how these games always seem to come down to the end so I wouldn't advise laying 2.5. Normally, I don't play MLs but this is right around where I draw the line in the -140 range. I'm looking at this as a pretty big play, maybe in the 10x range. Good luck and enjoy the games.
bobbyfk gave t-wizzle 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by t-wizzle
84 to 67 i've watched this beat down over and over. Kentucky may have grown some but Uconn is so much better. This team has had a much tougher road in the tourney. Basically beating Arizona and San Diego st on there home floors. Come on kids Calipari doesn't have enough money to buy off the refs in this one. Uconn blows out the cats again kids.
