Originally posted on 12/07/2010:

I suppose this could/should go in the NBA forum, but I wanted this thread not to be about picks, but about the handicapping behind them. I'm pretty much hoping to stimulate some discussion, overtly about NBA handicapping, but really about handicapping generally.

In the NBA forum, I just read though some threads and it's depressing. Unless you're a bookie. But mods, move the thread there if you want.

So I'll lead off. I just going to though a card, make some points, to start things off. No idea if this will fly.

NJ/Atl early line 185', 186 and -6, -6'

ATL is in a b2b situation, and 4/5 (uh, that's back-to-back games situation, and 4 games in 5 days). My work shows that that obv impact seems to be in the line. Joe Johnson's absence, out the last four games, and by my estimate worth 2' pts on the side, also that seems to be in. But the total is way low, to me. Even taking 4 pts off the total for Johnson's X (X means out for injury; we've got to have shorthand, brothers), which is where I rate his total's (T) impact, it's low. ATL has come U the last 3 games (I've been betting on it, fwiw), but I think there's some overcompensation now. UNLESS: there's something wrong with NJ's Devon Harris, and there might be. He missed the 2 before the last, and played ~24min in that, iirc, and not real well. NJ also has 3 consec U, 2 with Harris x, the last with him going about 1/2 distance. I fig Harris' T impact at -2, -2'. But there's nothing showing publicly about him missing the game or being slowed, so I'm going to assume he's in. Understand also that in that last game, his first back from the injury, NJ was getting badly beat, and he might have been held back from his usual minutes because he just wasn't going to be wasted in a hopeless game.

I make this game, with the above noted adjustments, 188'/-6',-7. My standards for betting are 2 pt edges on sides, 4 on totals, and divided by those numbers for units, so an est sides edge of 3 pts would warrant 1' units bet. I don't think I ever have est side edges >5, btw. But meaning in this instance, I'll bite if the total drops to 184.

But it's important to note that this is entails keeping an eye out for late injury info on Harris. Further, this is what I call a seduction bet, in that I'm going to allow myself to be seduced into an O bet by a continuing drop in the total on this game. That isn't always okay, but, to me, it is generally okay when a source for the line change can be identified as mere public reaction to a trend, as in this case, where both teams have come under their last 3.

DEN/CHA, early line 201, 202 and +1',+2
This line is 2' at SIA, which I can't bet at, but which i check for square action. The line opened +1' and has moved up, obv, but if it's moved up most of all at SIA I can't call it sharp action. I make this game 200, CHA -1. CHA -1 would make for ~2 pt edge at +2 (you guys all know you can't count the zero in comparing PR's to lines, right?). I don't see any injuries or travel impacts, nothing, to account for this, so I'm on CHA+2. But if someone's got insight as to why DEN might have an inobv edge, post it. That's what this thread's about.

CLE/PHI, early line 196 and -7
I've got this at 197/-3, so I'm on CLE, for 2 units. The source for this est edge is obv: CLE got rolled by MIA in a big game 3B (3 games back), then rolled bad at MINN or MILW 2B, and well-beat LO (last out) by Detroit. As usual, I'm fading what I think is overreaction. CLE was in a weird spot vs MIA, and got beat down, and was still emotionally spent the following game. But that passes. I'm literally betting on it, anyway. But I'm not betting yet. I'm hoping it'll kick up to 7' somewhere. It opened 6' and moved up a notch from there; I doubt it'll kick up another notch, but I don't mind just watching for a while, because I don't think it'll drop a notch, either, or at least not so quickly that I can't still find a slow 7 somewhere. WHEN to bet is a big question in this biz, no doubt. I have my approaches. Just another discussion starter here, hopefully, but for this game I think the chance I'll nip a 7' just Pre-Game outweighs the chance I'll get shut out of the current 7.

BTW, when I say "I've got this at ..." I mean by my combination of PRs and handicapping adjustments. ATL, for example, I took off 1' points for their b2b and 4/5 situation, and 2' for Johnson's X, off my PR's (I keep my basic PRs as if all players are ready, and deduct for Xs, except for long term Xs, like Bynum for LA, and like, soon, really, Johnson here), and of course HCA, which I have at 3' for this matchup. Now, those are all arguably priced adjustments, no doubt. So, argue them. Again, that's what I'm hoping this thread will be good for. How do you price the various adjustments?

DET/HOU, 200, 200' and -6',-7
At first glance I made this game 204/-6', but I'm not jumping to bet the over yet. "Battier was sent home from practice Monday because of a stomach virus, the Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen reports." I make Battier worth 1 pt in side value and -2 in T impact (btw, don't be mislead by my deductions for T impacts in this thread; I'm just as likely to adjust upward, it's just coincidence that the injury impacts mentioned so far have all been T downward). If I was convinced Battier was in play, I'd take the over here, but I'm not, so I won't. But if he's not, and I can find a +7' somewhere, I'll take Detroit. Something to watch for. Prob I'll be in a card game somewhere at gametime, but I can eyeball the net on my IPOD and make a late bet if need be. Also, Martin supposedly has the bug, too, and his X would further deflate my T est, but he played LO, so he's prob in tonight, too.

GS at DALL, 204', 205 and -9
I don't see anything interesting about this game, ex that by PR I make it 210/-8, so I'm on the over. This line opened at 203', which I didn't get, but I'm okay with 204'. I'm okay with up to 206, obv, but really there's no excuse for not taking this O now.

PHX at POR, 204 and -2', -3
By PR I have this at 202/-3'. I don't care that Robin Lopez is Q; I do care that Miller is X 1 (suspension). Yes, POR has bad-knees-Brandon Roy in action, and so you might think they're deep at the G, or even better off without a Miller and Roy on the court at the same time. But go here (which, btw, is from what I derive injury impacts, with some tweaking) http://basketballvalue.com/teamplaye...-2011&team=POR
Early, I'm making Miller's X worth ~2 on the side, -2 on the T, so I'm close to going U and PHX here, but I have some more work to do on the Miller impact. Actually, I'm on the U at 204; it's PHX I'll think about some more. Here's my concern: a real step up by Roy with Miller out. But, go here: http://basketballvalue.com/teamunits...-2011&team=POR and see that, at the least, the idea that Miller/Roy on the court at the same time is a negative doesn't hold up, and see also that Miller is really key to this team. But I still have to worry about the X stepup, as I call it, where a player's absence is made up for, in the first game, by the rest of the team. Anyway, for now, I'm adj POR -2 for Miller's X, which doesn't bring my PR down enough to warrant action. I'd need to get PHX +4, which isn't going to happen.

WASH at LAL, 207'-208' and -12',-13
LAL has been off 3; Gasol is a tad Q, Bynum a tad prob, but I'm assuming Gasol's a go, Bynum won't be, or won't play much, and isn't key anyway.
I made this game 212/-14'. I'm passing on LAL even if I found the -12 that would get them >2 from my PR, because there's almost no way I'm going to find value on LAL at home as a big fave, so if it looks like value (as it would if I found a -12 somewhere), I'd have to be suspicious. When earlier I was talking about seduction bets, this would be the kind I wouldn't like. If the line drops here it's because someone has private info that Gasol's X or limited or something. But I'm on the O at 207'. It opened at 206'; hope some of you got that.


Okay, enough. I just thought I'd show how I cap; hopefully others will do the same. Could be interesting. Or not, LOL.