Originally Posted by
jcubs55
Adding:
Pacquiao DOES NOT win by KO, TKO, DQ +120 risking 2.0 Units to win 2.4 Units
Margarito wins by KO, TKO, DQ +500 risking 1.0 Unit to win 5.0 Units
Arright, gonna touch on a few things pretty quick.
After hearing a ton of analysis from my friend and watching a lot of vids, here is what we gathered on this fight:
Margarito is in the best shape of his life right now, and is coming out what is probably his best camp ever with his new trainer Garcia. Pacquiao has looked invincible in his last four fights and seems to be getting complacent. He has been in and out of camp with his mind on congress and a trip to random locations almost every weekend. He has looked better as of late but still seems a tad slower than usual while Margarito looks like he has the most speed he's ever had. Margarito has a chip on his shoulder after the plaster incident and knows this will be his best chance to silence critics. I'm not saying Margarito is a lock to win or anything, but he is definitely not a 4-1 or higher underdog. This is a value play. As for the total, people underestimate Margarito's chin. Pacquiao is giving up 15-20 pounds and half a foot to Margarito, and we think Margarito will definitely be able to handle Pacman's power punches.
Bottomline, a lot of things could happen in this fight. Pacman could come out and pick Margarito apart for 12 rounds and coast to a decision. Margarito could withstand 4 rounds of Pacman coming out firing, and then turn and stop Pacman a few rounds later. We won't be able to tell what was the "right" or "wrong" play based on the outcome of this one fight, but these bets should show profit long-term.
If Pacman is going to win, it should take him some time. Margarito should be able to last at least 9.5 rounds. If Margarito wins, it probably won't be by a decision given Pacquiao's quickness, speed, agility, etc. Look for Margarito to stop Pacman late, in the "9th, 10th, or 11th" as my friend suggested. BOL guys.