[Hoopman]

Originally posted on 08/18/2010:

1) Playing at a good book is key (5Dimes is another reputable site, adding on to the list that Sawyer provided). If you deposit at a crap book you will eventually have problems with them. Also, having accounts with at least 2 books vastly increases your flexibility & earning potential.

2) When possible, take advantage of reduced juice options over any bonus offered. It is FAR more valuable in the long run as it reduces your breakeven winning percentage dramatically.

3) Your long term success in the industry is defined by how you manage the hot and cold streaks associated with gambling. Maybe you'll win 55% of wagers over an extended period (which may not sound impressive, but would actually yield a strong profit margin), but that span will be full of ups and downs. Have a well defined notion of what your maximum wager should be for one event and if you're running cold, there's no shame in cutting down that bet size for a bit or taking a few days off to clear your head. On that same note, not everyone is cut out for sports betting. Decide whether you can take the stress before you lose a lot of money.

4) Parlays are only for fun. Stick to straight wagers if you're serious about sports betting. Books generate a substantial portion of their revenue from parlays and teasers.

5) Don't chase your losses. It's SO tempting sometimes but is a long term losing strategy. You need to be able to move on quickly from a loss and not let it affect your future plays.

6) Don't tail other people's picks or pay for handicapper's services. You're responsible for your money and if you're not making your own selections, you're eventually going to be handing your money over to the books (or even worse, to the touts). Tailing teaches you nothing and you'll never develop your own skills.

7) Learn to handicap. I repeat, if you're not making your own selections, you're not going to be a long term winner. There are numerous threads about the different handicapping methods and techniques, as well as numerous proven cappers to learn from at SBR. Justin7 (one of the mods) is also publishing a book later this summer that should be a very comprehensive guide. In general, you need to be able to establish what a fair price is for a particular matchup so you can compare it to what is being offered and identify where there is value.

8) Keep records of your plays. They will help you learn from your mistakes and maintain greater discipline.

9) Pick one sport to start in and master it before you spread your focus to others. Trying to learn multiple sports at the same time is tough.

10) Do your homework about how betting actually works. Prices associated for spreads/totals in major sports are governed by the market (just like the prices of stocks/commodities/etc). Lines open at certain values set by the linemakers first by using statistics and then adjusting them to meet with public opinion so that they will hopefully generate equal betting on both sides (a perceived fair line). The books' goal is to have even betting (or rather equal money) on both sides so that they can take their 10% vig off the top and pay off the winners with the losers money, thus guaranteeing their profit margin.

The market can generally be considered to become more efficient closer to the start of the game. This means, that it's very important where a line opens, which way it moves (and how), and where it closes. Lines move as the books try to make one side more attractive to bettors so that the money evens out. The bottom line for you is to always try to beat the closing line and you do that by accurately assigning value to a matchup and then buying at the better price before the line moves, not buying into a line that has already moved.

11) Math Skills. If you don't have them, get some. Assigning value to matchups means at least a basic understanding of Expected Value, Binomial probabilities, Poisson distributions, & Pythagorean expectation. They sound complicated, but there are numerous resources online and in the Think Tank to reference as you work your way through them. The time spent on these will pay you back tenfold. Pay special attention to the ability to convert different odds formats to compare value, and how to calculate the value of points on a spread using push probabilities.

12) Excel. Learn how to use it. Many of the calculations you'll be doing are repetitive and strong command of Excel means being able to handicap much more efficiently. You need to develop methods to handicap games as quickly as possible so you can identify potential value and then focus on those selected games.

13) Line movement. Mentioned above, it's the pulse of the industry. It offers you a chance to observe how the books react to money placed on each side and can often provide hints as to what their opinions are on matchups. Handicapping comes first, but this is a good aspect to study later on.

I think that this is all excellent advice from SK and I very much agree with a lot of it. The only 2 above items I will challenge are #6 and #9.

Starting w/ #9, while it is smart to go after one sport at a time before moving onto others, this could take you a lot longer since all the sports are seasonal. For instance, if you're studying football and now it's February, March, April, etc, do you wait until training camp allowing basketball, baseball, and hockey to pass by. I would say you have to do them simultaneously simply due to the fact that it will take multiple years to master. Also, while doing these simultaneously, you may find that you're naturally stronger in a certain sport over the others and from there, you can delve deeper into that specific sport to master.

As for #6, this is w/o a doubt the most controversial topic on forums. A service that I use explained it to me the best and I'll paraphrase what I got from them. It's not just that you're paying just for picks, you're actually buying your time/freedom as well. I am able to spend more time with my family, run a business, hang out with friends, and get my plays in. If they're providing me with winning picks (meaning I make more than I actually spend on the plays), it is far more advantageous to me as I feel my time is worth more than spending a few bucks each day. In other words, I have created a new revenue stream w/o increasing my knowledge. Also, as one service told me, I can repeat this process multiple times and have multiple revenue streams w/o much effort.

For me to calculate the worth of the service, I look at the following:

1) ROI - Are the plays profitable enough to make my targeted amount and cover what I spend

2) Ease of receiving plays - I will only deal with a service if they send the plays directly to me. It makes my life easier to get the plays on my phone while also betting through my phone.

3) Timeliness and quality of responses to my questions - This is very important to me b/c it shows me if they actually value me as a client and also if they're a good service, I will learn from them as I go.

So I find 2-3 good services and spend approximately $750 per month and I turn around and make $4000 per month on average, that's $3250 average profit for me that I didn't do anything for. I'm still able to go out on the weekends, run my biz, travel, provide for my family, you get the point. I'm able to live my life and not be a slave to the computer, line movements, last minute info, etc.

I have found that this is the approach that rich and wealthy people have with regards to their finances. Poor and middle class people either want things for free or try to do everything on their own. You will find that is what is on the majority of these forums. Rich ppl value their time and realize some investments will be failures while others will be successful.

As for me, I've built my wealth and bankroll based on other people's knowledge and hard work. Success isn't all about how hard you work, it's also somewhat about how SMART you work. While this probably won't be popular on this forum considering the audience, it's the best way to get it done IMO.

BOL to you!