Originally posted on 08/25/2018:

Quote Originally Posted by Alfa1234 View Post
So what you're saying is, you've found a way to filter the non-efficient closing lines and have found value in those specific closing lines? How large is your sample size?
First, to clarify, I don't only wager on closing lines, I also sometimes wager on lines nearer to the opening and sometimes I even beat the closer but that is not my focus. And no, I don't beat the closer often enough or by enough of a spread to account for my profitability. Whether or not I wager nearer the opening or the close is determined by the criteria that determined the event selection.

Second, as to sample size, I really do not want to discuss my personal figures other than to say that I have been doing this successfully for over 40 years and my results are well beyond 3 sd's. I have only had 1 losing year and that was my very first year. I actually started out wagering on horses and it was that experience where I learned the concepts and methods that I have used to make money on various endeavors including horses, jai alai, greyhounds, hedging, live wagering and sports wagering (taxes paid as necessary for any of you IRS agents out there).

To continue, it does not matter whether you (group you not you personally) believe me or not. But you know whether or not you are profitable (unless you are fooling yourself). If you are profitable, great, continue what you are doing. Nothing I write should interfere with that. But if you are not profitable, then you have to or at least should question what you are doing and/or whether or not what you believe is true or not.

I am not really a gambler, I was attracted to wagering more for the puzzle of it, not because I was a sporting nut. I needed to "solve" the puzzle. I will not discuss specific criteria but when I have some time I will write about how I started and how the light bulb moment came for me.

As a starter , there was a post that reminded me of how I started that asked essentially what happens to your wager if Judge and Stanton are scratched. I know I can Google it but I won't and didn't. I have heard the name of Judge, I think I heard that he is a home run hitter but I had no clue who Stanton is and I have no clue what positions these two play or for that matter I can't even remember what team the post mentioned (Yankees?). To relate that to my story from the mid 70's, another horse player asked me who I wagered on and I told him and then he asked me who was riding the horse and I told him I didn't know and of course he told me that I couldn't bet on a horse if I didn't know who was riding him! Of course that is not true and part of my story if and when I get around to posting it.

Again, good luck to all regardless of what method(s) you use.

Joe.