Originally posted on 09/11/2018:

Those numbers add up quite well. You can see the odds history here so you don't have to rely on memory. https://www.bestfightodds.com/events...y-vs-till-1530

If you take the 5Dimes closing odds and de-juice them, they imply the following probabilities of each outcome:

Zabit Wins (-1375/+900) = ~90.5%
Zabit ITD (-145/+115) = ~56%
Zabit Dec (+165/-205) = ~35.5%

56% + 35.5% = 91.5% ≈ 90.5%

This is what you would expect.

Beyond that, your math is way off. There is no scenario where you have an upside of $1,137 since if Zabit wins by decision he does not win ITD, so you'd lose the ITD bet, so your upside is only $437. Similarly, if Zabit did win ITD, you'd lose the decision bet, so you would not be up $430; you'd be down -$270. Of course, if Davis won, you'd still be down $1,400 either way.