[KVB]

Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27887654'>posted</a> on 06/30/2018:

...Probably should make a side roll to bet against Montreal until you lose a couple in a row and if they cover the first one oh well.

If Edmonton covers this spread, it's once again a high pressure situation for Montreal. I've covered this last year multiple times and we all witnessed the action, multiple times.

So what do we do here? Pass on all Montreal games until it breaks? Fade Montreal until the cover? If I wasn't so sure that cover would be a home win, or just a win, I'd fade possibly fade the moneyline.

Extreme situations call for extreme measures...

Once again that market has stacked money in multiple ways. Sure, we’ve seen three straight favorites win and cover, 4 going back to the end of week 2. With 11 games played, 8 have seen the favorite cover the spread and 2 of the 3 covering underdogs were upsets. The CFL early season underdog trend was bucked this year. For the Totals, we’ve seen 5 Overs and 6 Unders.

Those are the obvious stats for the season thus far, everyone can see those results. In light of this, we can add the less obvious, something we’ve done with NCAAF and NFL playoffs. With the less obvious, but shown in this thread, we see that out of the 9 possible bets this week (ATS, ML, Total) the stacking forecast is 7-1 with no spread prediction in game 1.

The failure was last night’s OVER, which we all saw coming and some of you bet.

In fact, the stacking forecast has been correct against the spread 5 out of the last 6 games and was wrong when predicting Toronto to beat Calgary last week…

...That leaves us with one more upset prediction, Toronto, to counter the first game this week. If that was a failure upset prediction, then I like Toronto's chances to settle some give and take....

While Calgary is like the opposite of Montreal, and Hamilton beating Edmonton last week was a 6.5 point upset, it still appears that the market is working its way towards a sizeable upset. While the stacking forecast was wrong against the moneyline in last week’s upset, it did have Hamilton predicted against the spread. While I didn’t want to read much into the early season forecasts, clearly the market has taken these strategies into into account as a form of protection.

So where’s the surprise? Is it Montreal’s turn? These are the types of factors that lead to a market break for a team like Montreal, no matter the sport, no matter the market.

Then again, that fact is why nearly every league has a Montreal (think Cleveland Browns) and, to the opposite end, a Calgary (think New England Patriots, or even Tiger Woods). Montreal has failed in the face of compression factors to a level I’ve rarely seen and you’ve witnessed it yourselves in previous CFL threads.

Eventually, these juggernauts (losers or winners) will succumb to the give and take of the markets. The CFL is just really stretching out the market. If you think about it, given the success of both the stacking forecast and sharp forecast over the last 3 years, a stretched market like this serves to mitigate the “bull run” that some groups have been in for a while now.

We’re at a point where a Montreal win will come with some sort of news, probably about the other team, that helps “explain” the cover or victory. Quarterback Zach Collaros being out may actually be good news for Saskatchewan.

Just ask HngKng.

This, in my opinion, is the state of the market right now. I offer no play, but I do offer the forecast. That says Saskatchewan wins with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 10 points. With no discrepancy against the market, that predicts the Favorite and the Over.

Consider this post when comparing with your own handicapping and remember this post when assessing the results of the game and week.