Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27154955'>posted</a> on 08/18/2017:

The sharp forecast has Ottawa winning with 33 or 34 points to Hamilton’s 20 or 22 points.

The stacking forecast shows Ottawa winning with 36 points to Hamilton’s 19 or 20 points. Less sophisticated methods, many using averages get a slightly higher scoring game but virtually all predictions give Ottawa the win. The public gauge says Ottawa wins 32-26.

The offered Total is a bit tighter for this game sitting at the sharp and stacking forecasts. The public gauge is a little higher but this line opened and has stayed pretty “sharp.” From the standpoint of analyzing the market, so many being sidelined could indicate an Under play.

In terms of favorites and dogs, Overs and Unders, wins and losses, etc, there are three things that can happen: a streak one direction, a streak the other direction, or alternating one way then the other. You can have a couple one way, then the other, but that’s really just alternating.

If we view the markets in terms of give and take, the alternating market is somewhat natural. Even if we look at the basic Over vs Under we’ve seen 7 Overs followed by 5 Unders before this week began. Now, I’m not saying to bet the opposite of a recent streak just because there’s been a few in a row. If you’ve followed the football post season and event recent CFL season you’ll know that often what is obvious to the public has a hidden side of money being stacked as well.

For example, last week there were 4 Unders and the sharp forecast failed 3 consecutive times. In the first game this week, it went Over, as predicted by the sharp forecast. Money was being stacked in other ways last week as well, just look at the situation with streak riding and streak breaking bettors concerning recent Total results of the teams playing.

My point is that the sharp Total, which, by the way is very similar to Ottawa’s first game last week when you look at the alignment with the forecasts, will sideline bettors, or force them to gamble. At a stage where the market is rolling out of a very streaky, for both results, phase, this tight line is just one indication that the market may be willing to ease into its “natural” give and take phase. Another indication came in the final game last week when looking, again, at recent Total results of the teams playing.

Just like yesterday’s sharp forecast being sidelined in regards to the moneyline helping to tip us off to the anticipated Edmonton loss, today’s forecast shows the same type of mechanic for the Total. This time however, the anticipation comes in the market seeking that give and take stature.

This gets a bit deep and delicate as there are more factors and metrics involved but last time we had market mechanics jump from the spread or moneyline side to the Totals involved the markets turning from shakeouts. I warned of the immediate jump and that it may take patience to realize, and thus passed on a winning play.

This time I didn’t heed that warning and I picked up UNDER 56 (-108) for Ottawa Redblacks versus Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Good Luck.