Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27086451'>posted</a> on 07/15/2017:

Notice the Pinny line. This time they won't come off of 3.5 as that underdog money comes in. Again, I wouldn't suggest reading too much into this as we can only get hopeful that in this give and take world, this time the plus odds on the spread fail.

Money is always being steered and the books revealed some cards last night. Any signs of said cards that show up so soon tend to not have a predictive value in a give and take sense...they are more like traps. Money is always being steered and bookmaker techniques play a huge role, but we all know the give and take isn't always immediate, it's why bettors need patience.

Because the same thing happens, year after year, it is possible to quantify the books behavior, but it must take into account the current market environment when being applied.

Otherwise we fall prey to the problem I've posted before about models being static, and not dynamic, as they are based only on a universe of past stats that seldom includes context.

That's where market analysis enters the picture and why the sharp forecast I post is much more dynamic, able to flow through a season of the market.



edit: I am referencing yesterday's game when talking about today's line.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post27084992