Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27084733'>posted</a> on 07/14/2017:

For the second game tonight the sharpest forecast I can make has Edmonton winning with 31 points to Ottawa’s 27 or 28 points.

The stacking forecast has Edmonton scoring 31 points as well with Ottawa scoring 24 points.

This time, the line opened at the stacking forecast and has moved to the sharp forecast. It’s one of the reasons I mentioned the line movement on the first game. Again, this pairing is by design and those in the previous CFL thread have learned a bit about this behavior.


Even with only two Edmonton games so far, the money seems to be sharpening in the marketplace but as the market matures, I may get into those mechanics a bit more.

Interestingly, less sophisticated methods almost all yield about 31 points for Edmonton. The public gauge makes the game closer, giving Ottawa 30 points.

There is literally a consensus among the main numbers I post of 31 points for Edmonton. A consensus over 30 like this could spell doom for Edmonton. Edmonton only has two games played so far, so this is likely the first of what will be two or three times where we see an extreme consensus. It’s something to watch.

In short, the public was on Calgary and are now taking Ottawa, for the most part. If Calgary fails, there could be quite a bit of pressure on Ottawa, and this could show itself on the field. Specifically, it could lead to Ottawa going up early, only to get beat.

But first it’s up to Calgary…

Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
A few things I didn't get into here, at least yet, one of which is the effect of having two games with roughly the same point spread being offered. This is by design and the inevitable uncertainty of the first game can contribute to an Over play...

The game is currently tied 16-16 in the third period. The result is full uncertainty at this point and is what I meant when I posted that above.

It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.