[KVB]

Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=26284216'>posted</a> on 09/21/2016:

KVB, what do you think of the over 57 in the GT/Clemson game?...

Here’s what I have so far but it may not say much as we still don’t even have 4 games under our belt.

That sort of public sense, mostly non predictive line I create gauges a few things and has Clemson winning 31-21. That’s only 52 points and note that the line opened early at 53.5.

As we sharpen the forecast we get Clemson winning the game 42-17 and we’ve seen the line move towards that forecast. An offshore book put up the 53.5 but it was gobbled up quickly and most houses opened around 57.

That book may have been trying to cater to a lower scoring crowd with that open, after all both defenses haven’t given up too much and all three Clemson games failed to reach the 62 plus lines that have been dealt while GTech’s defense caused the same issues with its mid-40 lines.

But that’s a pretty weak assumption as the competition has been some out of conference games and is difficult to gauge. Also with the exception of week 1, the teams have done their part in getting some points. The only significant information there is about Clemson (a top ranked team) and the fact that they have three consecutive UNDERs. Remember streak riders and streak breakers from the CFL thread Jay? Well a streak has developed and they will come into play.

Perhaps the book knowingly opened this line low with the intention of drawing action on the OVER and raising that line to 57, maybe it settled there and other books felt safe to open there. Maybe that first book took a position, without a Pinny lead, even if only to establish a “feel” for the market.

But what kind of position can the book take with early opening low limits? As far as I can tell, less than a 57 total was out there for a few hours. Why? Trades at those levels were obvious for the OVER but not very meaningful. So why post it?