[KVB]

Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=26254790'>posted</a> on 09/14/2016:

what do you think about that total of 39½?

It’s only week two so it’s tough to form an opinion. From a numbers perspective, here’s my research so far. There are many ways to handicap, you know that, and here’s a sample of them.

First there is an unsophisticated group of bettors who use a lot of common stats, it doesn’t matter which ones, and a lot of averages to come to a number. It’s absolutely non-predictive, but worth a look because it represents a very public type gauge, taking into account some quantified public perception; it is especially helpful when graphed over time. That forecast of the unsophisticated bettors give Seattle a 20-13 win. That’s only 33 points.

Now the next forecast is by far the sharpest year to year, long term forecast. It tends to follow wild market swings, having bad streaks or sets of bets being followed by good ones. I’ve seen less and less middle of the road weeks and sometimes it takes patience but it gets there. Truthfully, the forecast is dynamic, meant to be played against a sharper market, and is really most effective after 4 weeks of data. At that point, sharper participants enter the marketplace. It is weaker in the early season but still worth a look. That forecast has Seattle winning 20-7, not far from the above forecast…and only 27 points.

Now let’s look at a third forecast. Here, we take into account a number of statistics and player matchups to get a little more sophisticated. It is not as dynamic as the last but really stacks some relevant percentages, giving a great start to work from. In terms of TOTALS, this forecast is often in line with the opening lines, even early in the season. This forecast has Los Angeles winning with 21 points, and Seattle scoring 17 or 20 points, both cases with essentially equal probability. That’s 38 or 41 points, and it happens to encircle the 39.5 (the raw score had a total of 40.0 points exactly.)

It is only week two and both of the latter forecasts will get much more competitive as the season progresses. They simply aren’t as good early in the season but I can see why the line is at 39.5 (see forecast 3 and consider teaser numbers). I can also see why there will be pressure on the UNDER (I think we all can, especially given the Monday night debacle.)

But the NFL can only drop a line so low before OVER bets are triggered. It makes no difference to market moving money whether this line is at was at 38.5 or 40.5. Putting it in the middle of this “no-man’s zone” is an early feeler, a test to some bettors but it sidelines anyone approaching that 3^rd style forecast, forcing them to gamble. It also has protection from some teaser odds. So it looks like the books really want to split the money.

In reality, the books know money is coming on the UNDER and that line could test 38. At 38, some OVER buying begins to trigger, regardless of forecast. But if it were to press through to 37 then that triggers the kind of buying that tends to win bets…the best number after public steam has pushed the line.

Remember, triggering those OVER buys also stops UNDER orders as well. I suspect the books have every intention of playing with this total number in order to generate action. I would also suspect that they will carefully tier down on UNDER moves so as not to trigger those automatic OVER bets, or move quickly to mitigate them. If this appears to be happening then, depending on other general market factors, I may be in the market for an OVER.

There should be no hurry to get the UNDER, the game is not ending in 39 points. In my opinion, the UNDER doesn’t lose “value” until 38. If the answer is indeed the UNDER, you know it’s going to be an ass game, killing the teaser in the process and giving everyone what they expect.

Speaking of significant numbers and teasers, if the books go with 39.5, I wonder how many 6 point teasers this weekend will have UNDER 45.5.

Sometimes the books will “sell” plays to the marketplace, sometimes it works out for the player, sometimes it doesn’t. But make no mistake, the book is keeping track.