Originally posted on 07/24/2016:
I actually give the striking advantage to KK in this matchup. In her 2 UFC fights so far, she has landed an incredible 6.17 SS/min. Rose has good striking too but she was actually outstruck by Tecia Torres in her last fight 61-46. Torres hit her consistently with kicks and punches and I think Kowalkiewicz will do that even more.
I think if Rose wins this, it will be by spamming takedowns and landing strikes from top control or sinking in a sub. However, KK has defended 25/26 TDs in her fights so far (Markos landed 1/11, Clark 0/15) so she is not easily taken down.
With Rose coming off a very close fight where she was outstruck and failed to do much damage when she did get takedowns, her being a -260 favorite against an excellent striker with good TDD makes little sense to me. The odds make this a dog-or-pass fight and I think the dog is very live.