Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=22318309'>posted</a> on 07/28/2014:

L10 years, road faves that fail to score in the 1st are 2683-2735. average pregame odds were -135. so, a rough estimate says you would need to be offered approx 35 cents for this to be practical. the problem is that when the road fave DOES score in the top 1st, they go on to win 68.6% of the time (1669-765)..... except that you probably weren't on those games, because they got even more expensive than u wanted