Originally posted on 08/28/2013:

Quote Originally Posted by KornhuskerJ View Post
I've been leaning HARD on this one all week for the reasons above. I also saw the spike on my local book from BGST -3.5 to -5.5. Now its back down to -4. Thinking I should jump on it. Any advice? (I'm a newb)

  • Do not rely on anyone else's perspective in order to reach a decision involving your money.
  • Make sure you do as much independent research as possible.
  • Remember, just because you see something on an IBB doesn't make it factual.
  • Be able to discern the difference between opinions and facts.
  • Be cognizant of the fact that every gambler has a personal bias, whether or not they admit it.
  • A successful gambler will do their best to minimize the impact their personal biases have on their gambling decisions.
  • There is no such thing as a lock.
  • Practice bankroll management/do your best to avoid impulse bets
  • Don't bet a game just because it's on television
  • Avoide major conference matchups if possible. the value can usually be found in the smaller/less glamorous conference games
  • Look ahead to the coming week's schedule and either eliminate games that you have decided to avoid, or highlight the games you are interested in. Set your own line-paramaters in advance. If a game has the line you were looking for, bet it, don't wait to see if it'll become more favorable. More often than not, you'll end up missing the boat.
  • Don't auto-fade the public/Don't auto-bet with the public
  • Don't bet a game just because it indicates RLM. If you liked that side to begin with, just use that trend as an additional favorable reason to make a play
  • If you have yet to bet a game that is showing strong RLM, don't bet into the teeth of it... leave it alone... better safe than sorry.


Newb or not, your chances of picking a winner are 50/50... same as anyone here.