Originally posted on 01/07/2013:

from my post on Dec 3rd:
Quote Originally Posted by The Seer View Post
Alabama -9 1/2 -110 3 units
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...l#post16998344
A few comments on this game:
Much has been talked about with the ND front 7 on D vs Bama's O line. I feel there are battle that need to be talked about and they favor Bama. Bama's defensive front 7 is better than ND's offensive line especially in the redzone. Bama has the number 1 red zone scoring defense in the country. ND's redzone offense is 119th & they get TDs only 46% of the time. The other area I expect Bama to take advantage of is ND's secondary. It's the weak link in the secondary and AJ McCarron is number 1 in the country in passing efficiency, completing 67% of his passes at 9.3 yds per attempt (not completion) 26 TDs & only 3 INTs. There are other reasons such as ND committing more penalties & Bama's ability to make defensive adjustments. Mobile QBs are not that big of a deal vs Bama. As we've seen Manziel is a once in a generation player but Bama made adjustments against him. In the Texas A&M game, after the first quarter, Manziel led his team to only 1 TD & 1 fg. Gholston is no Manziel. I think he has more of a chance of turnovers than touchdowns. The 2 previous championship double digit underdogs have won outright but the spread has never matter in the BCS title game. Either the favorite has covered the number easily or the dog has won outright. If you like ND you could take the ML but right now after being bet down the value is actually better to take Bama on the ML. The one thing that keeps me from dropping 5 units on this game is the motivation factor. It will seemingly have to favor ND here & we've seen how important that is in these bowls. It's tough to quantify. Louisville was a good team but they played well over their heads vs Florida. Spare me the Lou is great comments, they got blown out by Syracuse & beaten by UCONN. LSU who is used to going to BCS games was much less motivated than Clemson & also loses due to bone head game management by Les MIles when it was obvious they had much better talent. If those were playoff games then we see different results. Saban is the best at keeping his team focused but these are still 18-22 year old kids and they are predictable at times and unpredictable at times. Bama stayed at a hotel on South Beach where it was a big party atmosphere Saturday night. ND stayed 12 miles away. Alabama fans feel entitled & ND fans are happy to be there. There's a reason teams haven't repeated but I just can't make a case for ND scoring much into double digits while I'm sure Bama gets there minimum 24 -27 points. No play for me on the total as these games often turn into blowouts. I've won a bunch in these bowls & 3 units won't hurt so I'm letting it roll on the Tide (no pun intended). GL I'm off to a party.