Originally posted on 02/26/2012:
I play mostly at Pinnacle, but sometimes at other places. I almost always have a strong pregame opinion when I play a game live. Sometimes I don't like the pregame line, so I wait and see what becomes available. Trying to wait and get the best line is REALLY hard, as momentum can shift quickly. Sometimes you need to just take what you're given or pass on it altogether. You're going to miss a lot of good opportunities no matter how close attention you pay. It really depends on the tendencies of the two teams playing, as well as scheduling. Most of the time the games I bet live are ones where I expect one team to really come out swinging early and result in imbalanced scoring in the first 6-12 minutes. That's the time in the game where you typically get the best balance between value on live lines and a reasonable expectation that your team is going to play better as the game goes on.
I've largely moved away from heavily stats-based capping, instead using a more fundamental approach of line analysis and situational angles. They account for 90%+ of the plays I make, but that being said, you really need to be able to quantify where a fair line lies at any point in the game if you plan on doing live betting frequently. Whatever method you come up with has to be simple, team-specific, and predictive rather than just summarizing what's happened so far in the game. You'll probably find the format at http://popcornmachine.net/ very helpful in doing the conceptual design for how you approach live-betting.