[Romanov]

Originally posted on 03/18/2011:

He had an 8-2 run since I been following him , got to respect that

look pal lets do some basic binomial probability on what is now an 8-4 run:

The probability that he goes 8-4 at some point if he hits 50% in the long term is as follows.

(12 choose 8)*.5^12

= .12

Meaning, for every 100 12-game series a 50% gambler has, 12 of those series of 12 (follow me here) will turn out to be 8 wins and 4 losses. That is a pretty common figure. I would not simply back this guy because he went 8-4 once


Also,

If someone wins bets at a 50% clip, and lets say this guy plays 400 plays an NBA season, we can expect a streak of wins to be:

.5^k = 1/400

k = 8.64

So, we can EXPECT a schmuck who hits half his bets to hit 8 in a row over 400 plays.