1. #1
    Chance Harper
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    NFL Week 1 Betting Review

    NFL Week 1 Betting Review

    There was nothing subtle or understated about the first week of the 2008 NFL season as upsets and injuries provided a wild start to the campaign. In New England, quarterback Tom Brady has already seen his season end with a knee injury that will require surgery. That's too bad as a Week 2 matchup between Brady's Patriots and Brett Favre's New York Jets looms this Sunday afternoon at Giants Stadium.


    Between all the injuries, upsets, and debuts in Week 1, it feels as though we’ve already been through half the season. While the news that Tom Brady is out for the season dominated the headlines and airwaves, there were plenty of other happenings that will affect bettors’ bankrolls for months to come.

    Collateral damage
    New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will not play football for the rest of the season because of a left knee injury that requires surgery. Let me allow you a few moments for that information to process and sink in to your long-term memory. That’s right: The reigning NFL Most Valuable Player is out for the season with what appears to be damage to his anterior cruciate ligament to his left wheel.

    Foreshadowing things to come, the Pats couldn’t cover as 16-point home favorites in their 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Don’t worry – New England won’t see that type of chalk until Brady heals, unless Matt Cassel is the second coming. Thing is, if Cassel holds up, there could end up being some sharp value in the Pats.

    Brady wasn’t the only QB to go down in Week 1. Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young is out at least two to four weeks with a sprained left knee, although reports out of Nashville say Young has some damage to his medial collateral ligament. Not the best news if you’re something of a mobile quarterback.

    The good news for Titans backers was their 17-10 upset of the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3-point home underdogs. Kerry Collins took Tennessee home, although it’s possible the Titans will bring in Chris Simms (who is also expected to show his stuff to New England) to work out this week.

    The other fallout from this matchup was the loss of two members of the Jags offensive line. Guard Vince Manuwari is out for the season with a torn ACL in his right knee, while guard Maurice Williams is sidelined for two months with a ruptured right biceps. Add to this starting center Brad Meester’s right biceps injury that will keep him out for four more weeks, and suddenly Jacksonville goes from Super Bowl sleeper to potential fade bait.

    Big debuts
    Seeing Brett Favre in a New York Jets jersey reminded me of when Michael Jordan suited up for the Washington Wizards: Something didn’t seem right. When Favre threw his first touchdown pass and did that little run to the end zone with his finger in the air, everything returned to normal. Favre finished 15-of-22 for 194 yards passing with two TDs to lead his Jets past the Miami Dolphins 20-14 as 3-point road faves on the betting odds in his first regular season start with his new team.

    After Favre upped the ante with his performance on Sunday, Aaron Rodgers responded and then some by leading the Green Bay Packers past the Minnesota Vikings 24-19 as 3-point home favorites on Monday night. Rodgers was an efficient 18-of-22 for 178 yards with a touchdown, as the third-year QB also ran for a score for the Packers. While there’s still plenty of handicapping to do with regards to Rodgers and the Pack, things are looking up after Rodgers’ poise and ability was displayed against the Vikes.

    The season started, guys
    Who bet on the Chicago Bears to roll into brand new Lucas Oil Field and cover against the Indianapolis Colts in the Sunday nighter? The Bears did more than grab the payday in their 29-13 drubbing of the Colts as 10-point pups, they announced that the NFC North won’t be all about the Packers and Vikings this season.

    QB Kyle Orton managed the game effectively, while rookie running back Matt Forte ripped the Indy defense for 123 yards rushing and a score. Chicago ran for 183 yards in the upset, bringing up memories of the Colts’ Swiss cheese run defense from two years ago. Looks like Peyton Manning should have taken a few snaps in the preseason instead of over-nursing his inflamed bursa sac.

    Trends
    Bettors playing favorites cleaned up in Week 1, as teams giving points went 10-6 against the number. Home faves were especially profitable, going 6-3 ATS.

    On the totals side of the ledger, the under cashed in nine of 16 games played in Week 1. That balance means sportsbooks will likely take the same approach to Over/Under numbers heading into the second week of action.

  2. #2
    JRS21386
    The Oracle
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    Nice write-up... Keep it up.. Who you leaning towards this weekend?

  3. #3
    Fishhead
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    Let's hope the favs go 10-6 again in week two.

    SBR Founder Join Date: 8/11/2005


  4. #4
    JRS21386
    The Oracle
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishhead View Post
    Let's hope the favs go 10-6 again in week two.
    This may be the last week this happens... I can see it happening this weekend but conference play is about to start.. Thats when it gets hairy

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