[polsefest]

NFC Championship Game Results

Favorite(Opp.) Score SU LINE(Dif.) ATS O/U(Dif.)
‘09 @NOR(MN) 31-28 W -4( 3) L O/53.5(5.5)
‘08 PHI(@AZ) 25-32 L -3.5(10) L O/47(10)
‘07 @GB(NYG) 20-23 L-8(3) LO/41(2)
‘06 @CHI(NOR) 39-14 W -2.5(25) W O/43(10)
‘05 @SEA(CAR) 34-14 W -3.5(20) WO/43(5)
‘04 @PHI(ATL) 27-10 W -5.5(17) W P/37
‘03 @PHI(CAR) 3-14 L -4(11) L U/36(19)
‘02 @PHI(TB) 10-27 L -4(17) L O/34(3)
‘01 @STL(PHI) 29-24 W -10.5(5) L O/49(4)
‘00 MN(@NYG) 0-41 L -2.5(41) L U42(1)
‘99 @STL(TB) 11-6 W -14.5(5) L U/44(27)
‘98 @MN(ATL) 27-30 L -10.5(3) L O/55(2)

*Notes*
Road Fav is 0-2 SU & ATS
DD Fav is 2-1 SU & 0-3 ATS
SD Fav is 4-5 SU & 3-7 ATS

syndicate action moved the line from -3 to -3.5. they will hit the +3.5 side to fast for the books to bring it back to +3 on them. if u like chi-town get in and get in now.

2 games is too small of a sample to base it off just those stats.

[riggs]

Looks like this line will hit 4 soon...

[Sunde91]

Looks like this line will hit 4 soon...

Games like conference championships and Super Bowl are different animals. Sharps don't have nearly as much pull because the public is so much more heavily involved.

3.5 point movement in about 12 hours for BCS title game.

[masontnk]

This line was set at that mark in order so split the money. Everyone would of pounded the hot packers if there were getting anything. But with them laying the points now people will stop and think about it and say how can the #2 seed at home be getting points. So they will take the bears. Al vegas is trying to do is split the money right down the middle on this one. It would be hard to see anyone fixing a game that means so much.

[d2bets]

3.5 point movement in about 12 hours for BCS title game.

That's cuz the public and the sharps all piled the same way.

[Adr3nalin3 Ru5h]

just take the packers M/L.... easy money

[riggs]

This line was set at that mark in order so split the money. Everyone would of pounded the hot packers if there were getting anything. But with them laying the points now people will stop and think about it and say how can the #2 seed at home be getting points. So they will take the bears. Al vegas is trying to do is split the money right down the middle on this one. It would be hard to see anyone fixing a game that means so much.

Good analysis here...

[d2bets]

I just fine it hard to see why someone would lay -3.5 on a road team in such a tough rivalry game. This game can go either way. But then laying another 3.5 on top of that? Just can't be smart money.

[DwightShrute]

GREEN BAY
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Green Bay's last 10 games on the roadThe total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing ChicagoGreen Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing ChicagoThe total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against ChicagoGreen Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against ChicagoGreen Bay is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Chicago

CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at homeChicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at homeThe total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Green BayChicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green BayChicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green BayThe total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Green BayChicago is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Green BayChicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Green BayChicago is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay

[esulima]

left vagas today people are betting the pack 10-1 smells like a let down

[JR007]

WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT SUNDAY'S CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
It's very interesting that BOTH of this Sunday's conference championship games in the NFL playoffs have played out the same way in terms of sharp betting.

• Green Bay and Pittsburgh are the favorites.
• Green Bay and Pittsburgh get meaningful support at -3, so much so that sportsbooks had to raise the juice to -120, or -130 at that number before finally settling in at -3.5.
• During the course of events right at the open, or later in the week, some stores posted a favorite by four points, but immediately saw the dog get hit fairly hard.

That makes it pretty clear. Sharps (professional wagerers) like the favorites -3 and the dogs +4!
Good night everyone, see you next time!
It's just not any more complicated than that at the moment. I will be interested to see if additional sharp action comes in on the underdogs over the weekend if the line stays at -3.5. Wise Guys who liked the favorite are already in at -3 or -3 with additional juice. They could read the tea leaves and made sure they got in at that critical number. My sense is that some dog lovers are waiting to see if the public backs the favorites up to four or more on game day. Then they'd come in at lines that offer a little more insurance than just 3.5.
Could the public back the dogs? Most of the time I'd say no. But, we have VERY appealing underdogs this week in terms of squares. Chicago is a team they could easily support at home in a Cinderella story. The Jets are a popular betting team most of the time, and just won outright two weeks in a row as underdogs. As a general rule, the public is going to bet favorites in championship games. That's just always the case in all sports going back since gambling started. This year, things could get interesting.
I haven't talked about the totals yet. There's nothing to talk about! Green Bay/Chicago opened at 43 and has stayed there. NY Jets/Pittsburgh opened at 38.5 and has stayed there. Both cities have the potential for weather influences. It makes sense to wait until the last second unless you know for sure bad weather is coming that would inspire an Under bet. That being said, all four teams have experience playing in cold weather. And, all three cold weather games went OVER last week! Games in Pittsburgh, Chicago, and New England landed on 55, 59, and 49 thanks to a lot of cheap field position points, and some strong armed quarterbacks who could throw through the wind.

[Hexum]

it might drop to +3 bears at some sites.

Bears. 3.5 locked

Over 42 locked.

[Chuck Sims]

Vegas wants you to take the Packers? How f-u-c-k-i-n-g clueless are you?

Vegas is begging for Bears action. They also are praying for a Bears win.

[hustla]

just took small bucks on Bears moneyline

[Finalnub]

Packers look like a team of destiny right now. Ride them all the way!

[Hexum]

Vegas wants you to take the Packers? How f-u-c-k-i-n-g clueless are you?

Vegas is begging for Bears action. They also are praying for a Bears win.

so why not raise the line only .5 while the jets game went up a full point already

[Chuck Sims]

Jimmy V who operates all the Leroys sportsbooks says its all Packers money so far(Friday).

Says its a position the sportsbook does not want to be in(obviously). Unless you're some dumb square that thinks Las Vegas controls the outcome of NFL games.

[beerman2619]

who is the clown that started this post?

[wingoldracing]

Packers will win
and steelers will win

[The Seer]

glad I was square today

[frostno98]

Classic over analyzing of a game gets you buried today

[Hexum]

not buried. Only good thing about this is the fact i only played it as an "if win" and .5x on it. Bears +3.5 of course being the first bet.

Shitty day to be a bears fan, i hate cutler too.