[beaneaters]

I've been very average the last couple weeks, hovering around .500. I guess thats okay, given how I play far too many games.
I continue that problem this week, but while adding even more ATS picks, I've avoided over-under selections, which I've been dreadful at all season.
Hopefully I can gain some more ground this time around. Good luck all.

Three units
Indianapolis -8.5. I really don't know how the line is falling in this one. Baltimore just played their Super Bowl last week against New England. They won't have anything left. And coming off a short week, against a Colts team that is starting to regain its footing, I can't see this one being close. People are forgetting the horrid Ravens team pre-Patriots.

Philadelphia -3. Its tough to sweep a divisional opponent, even tougher with Eli under centre. The Eagles have a strong revenge factor in this one, having been manhandled in the first meeting, but a healthier offensive line and the presence of Brian Westbrook is key. Sure, the Giants are 5-1 on the road, and have won 8 of 10, but who have they beaten since that Eagles game? The Jets (3-9), the Falcons (3-9), the 49ers (3-9), the Dolphins (0-12), the Bears (5-8), and the Lions (6-6). I have to think the Giants are a fraud.

Two units
Dallas, -10. Picking double digit road favourites is dangerous business, but a few factors ease the concern. 1) Dallas has had 10 days to prepare; 2) Detroit is sliding like nobodies business and can't protect Kitna; 3) and the Cowboys will be out to avenge a homefield loss to the Lions last year.
Green Bay, -9.5. Bought the half-point when the line opened at 10. I'm a little worried, didn't realize Rodgers wouldn't be available, but with 10 days of rest, hopefully Favre is ready and is given the protection he needs. Oakland only has 21 sacks all season, and I'm counting on a letdown after a pair of divisional victories.
New England, -10. I've been wrong on the Patriots the past two weeks, when they failed to cover huge numbers. So now they open at 13, the public backs the Steelers to the tune of 65 per cent, and the line drops to 10.5? I don't get it. I have to take the Pats for the same reason I did last week. They've had their scare, and should be refocussed. But I also can't get past the fact the 9-3 Steelers are just 4-3 outside their division, and have road losses in Arizona, Denver, and to the Jets.
Tennessee, +1. As a San Diego fan, I just can't get past the image of a one-dimensional team like Minnesota shredding the Chargers defence for 378 yards on the ground a few weeks back. The Titans aren't offensively gifted either, but a decent running attack will free up a mobile Vince Young to keep the Chargers off balance. Given San Diego's unreliablility on the road, Tennessee's greater need for the victory, and the Titans finally snapping their three-game skid last week, I expect Fisher and his crew to finish strong.
Cleveland, -3. I'm worried about this one. At the start of the week I thought it was a no-brainer. It opened at 3.5, and I even bought the half-point to take it to three. Now its down to 3 at most books all by itself. Damn. 80 per cent of the money goes on the Browns, and the line drops? I just have to hope that Cleveland comes out pissed off after their 'loss' in Arizona last week.

One unit
Carolina, +10.5. The numbers don't lie. The Panthers are a solid underdog (70-44 ATS), while Jacksonville struggles as big favourites. The Jags are in letdown mode after their showdown with Indy, and their suspect secondary should provide Vinny just enough space to keep it within single digits.

And for added viewing pleasure, I'm making small one-unit bets on the three road dogs of seven points who are facing divisional foes. Hopefully emotion and bitter rivalry can help Miami, Arizona and Kansas City keep things close.

[ChuteBoxe]

Don't like the Philly play and Carolina, but everything else looks good to me. Good luck man.