[outdrawed]

Skins -3

I realize that 3 points isn't static when it comes to HFA, but my favorite bets are on lines where the home team is a 3 point favorite at home. Then it's, for me, a matter if deciding if one team is far better than the other and if so, going that way. The Redskins are the better team here. It will also be more time for the emotional factor to have worn off from the Sean Taylor tragedy. I don't really buy into a team playing better or worse after something like this because I think every team handles it differently, but I think we can expect the Skins we've seen all year to be present for this game. Skins win handily.

Dolphins +7

lolololololololol. I love it. I absolutely love it. You should all know how I feel about the Dolphins, and despite yesterday's beatdown, I still think this team is better than anyone wants to give them credit for. Also, the Bills offense isn't remotely good enough to be giving 7 points to a team. Dolphins may not have enough firepower to win this game, but 7 points is just waaaaaaaaaaay too much.

Titans PK

Albert Haynesworth is back in the lineup. Just in case you guys weren't aware. That alone is enough to make me like the Titans, who are still being undervalued after being demolished with AH the last couple of weeks. Also, at what point did we decide SD was a real good football team? Two wins against a couple crappy teams? The loss to Jax? The fluky win against a Colts team who started half their offensive unit? The complete and utter beatdown handed to them by Minnesota? I'm confused, that's all.

Chargers/Titans U41

Once again, Titans defense WITH Albert Haynesworth is heads and tails better than without him. Toss in the Titans inability to points on the board (last week notwithstanding), and I think we're looking at a 17-13 game.

[Doc JS]

Dolphins +7

lolololololololol. I love it. I absolutely love it. You should all know how I feel about the Dolphins, and despite yesterday's beatdown, I still think this team is better than anyone wants to give them credit for.

Not trying to flame here but:

How much credit do you want to give to a team that is winless (and has a real shot at 0-16) and lost by 27 as a home fav yesterday?

[outdrawed]

Not trying to flame here but:

How much credit do you want to give to a team that is winless (and has a real shot at 0-16) and lost by 27 as a home fav yesterday?

It's one game. Yesterday's game was a debacle, and if they played like that every game, sure, they'd deserve their 0-12 record, but they've played much better than 0-12 all year, and the 6 3-pt losses suggest that.

The one thing that is disconcerting to me is that the two games they definitely should have won, they were crushed (home vs Oakland, home vs. Jets), but I'm willing to chalk it up to variance.

Who knows. Maybe Beck will take more than a few games to get his bearings and we continue to be awful against crappy pass defenses. But it's far more likely that he'll have much better games in the very near future.

[Doc JS]

It's one game. Yesterday's game was a debacle, and if they played like that every game, sure, they'd deserve their 0-12 record, but they've played much better than 0-12 all year, and the 6 3-pt losses suggest that.

The one thing that is disconcerting to me is that the two games they definitely should have won, they were crushed (home vs Oakland, home vs. Jets), but I'm willing to chalk it up to variance.

Who knows. Maybe Beck will take more than a few games to get his bearings and we continue to be awful against crappy pass defenses. But it's far more likely that he'll have much better games in the very near future.

The Fins very well may stay within 7 of the Bills. The Bills, as you pointed out, are not exactly an offensive juggernaught themselves. (But I didn't think the Jets were either). And it is certainly open to question as to whether they deserve to be a 7 point fav vs. anyone - Miami included.

Personally, I have not had a great deal of success betting on bad teams hoping they will start playing better.

BOL to you on your play.

[hamburglar628]

the redskins game and dolphins are two bad picks. Dolphins can easily get blown out if bills decide to use their somewhat decent air attack on them. Plus the redskins are horrible at winning games they should be winning let alone covering the spread.

[outdrawed]

"Personally, I have not had a great deal of success betting on bad teams hoping they will start playing better."

This isn't so much an instance of betting on bad teams hoping they play better. Looking at the stats, Miami HAS played better than their record. It's just a matter of betting on the scores to start reflecting how they've played. I am admittedly very new to sports betting, but I've had some early successes with betting based on how a team has actually performed (using DVOA as a starting point), and trying, to the best of my ability, to ignore meaningless statistics like win-loss record and the like (as contradictory as it may seem).

Anyways, I do expect the Bills to win this game, because they're the better team and playing at home. But there is definitely value in this line, and most likely the ML (which I haven't seen a line for yet.)

[outdrawed]

the redskins game and dolphins are two bad picks. Dolphins can easily get blown out if bills decide to use their somewhat decent air attack on them. Plus the redskins are horrible at winning games they should be winning let alone covering the spread.

The Bills have a somewhat decent air attack? I must have missed the memo. It's slightly below average, and the Dolphins are better at defending the pass than they are defending the run. Regardless, count the games Buffalo has won by 7 or more and the number of games Miami has lost by 7 or more. Next, look at the number of points Buffalo scores each game. They've put up over 20 twice this year, and one of those games was against Dallas where all but 3 points came from defense or special teams. You're pretty much hoping Buffalo holds Miami to single-digit points.

Your Redskins argument is just wrong and completely irrelevant and that's all I'm going to say about that.

[hamburglar628]

I'm a dolphins fan myself. Did you not see what the jets did to the dolphins yesterday? The bills are better team than the dolphins overall. Yes, the bills can throw the ball downfield if they chose to all over miami. And redskins...are you an idiot? They just lost to the bills AT home, they are horrible against the spread. Their season is coming to an end fast.

[outdrawed]

I'm a dolphins fan myself. Did you not see what the jets did to the dolphins yesterday? The bills are better team than the dolphins overall. Yes, the bills can throw the ball downfield if they chose to all over miami.

Unfortunately I didn't get the game of the century and was stuck watching Indy/Jax. From the looks of it, though, Beck pretty much handed the game to the Jets and the defense wasn't awful. Not good, but not awful. I highly doubt Buffalo is going to throw all over Miami. The bills would be smarter to run it more often than not against the Dolphins bad rush D.

And redskins...are you an idiot? They just lost to the bills AT home, they are horrible against the spread. Their season is coming to an end fast.

Wow. The Redskins lost a game? Alert the presses! Upsets NEVER happen! Meanwhile, the Bears still suck and are on the road. I'll take the less sucky team at home thanks.

[hamburglar628]

you probably didnt even see the most important factor in the game ITs AT buffalo

[outdrawed]

you probably didnt even see the most important factor in the game ITs AT buffalo

Uh, yeah I did. That doesn't change the fact 7 points is too much to be giving the Dolphins.

[hamburglar628]

seeing how the dolphins have a history of doing poorly at the end of the season due to playing in divisional games that are going to be about a 40-50 degree temperature change than playing at home. Its a huge factor.

[outdrawed]

So how many points do you think Buffalo's HFA is worth this week?

[hamburglar628]

the less sucky team...the bears? Look at the teams the redskins beat and loss to. Their a bad team that barely wins games that should win and lose games to much better teams. They dont have a good offense at all. They had their first passing offensive touchdown about a week or two ago against the jets. If anything I would pick the under again in this game. Home field doesn't mean anything in this game as you can see from yesterday performance against the bills. Upsets do happen...more frequently to bad teams such as the redskins.

[outdrawed]

Ok, you keep harping on the one game where they were upset by a last second FG to a team that is OK, less than a week after a member of their team was shot to death, and you keep pretending as if that one game means that they are an awful team.

The Redskins had the second hardest schedule in the NFL going into last week's game. They've played the best team in the NFC twice, as well as the second and third best teams in the NFC, and they played the best team in the NFL as well. They are better both offensively and defensively than the Bears, and they have better special teams. They are, by far, the better team, and despite what you'd like to think, them losing to the Bills on a last second FG doesn't change that.

[mv09]

Titans PK

Albert Haynesworth is back in the lineup. Just in case you guys weren't aware. That alone is enough to make me like the Titans, who are still being undervalued after being demolished with AH the last couple of weeks. Also, at what point did we decide SD was a real good football team? Two wins against a couple crappy teams? The loss to Jax? The fluky win against a Colts team who started half their offensive unit? The complete and utter beatdown handed to them by Minnesota? I'm confused, that's all.

Chargers/Titans U41

Once again, Titans defense WITH Albert Haynesworth is heads and tails better than without him. Toss in the Titans inability to points on the board (last week notwithstanding), and I think we're looking at a 17-13 game.

Living Next to Houston, I saw the titans game yesterday.

Albert played yesterday and Ron Dayne and the Houston Running game still looked great.

GL though

[outdrawed]

Great may be an overstatement. 18/86 is decent, but nothing spectacular, and from the looks of it, Houston was throwing a bunch which leads me to believe they weren't doing all they could to stop the run but instead were making sure Schaub/Rosenfels couldn't beat them.

That being said, I expect SD to do more running than throwing, which will slow the game down.

[hamburglar628]

LOL they have better special teams than the bears? One of the biggest factor will be hester, because if the redskins ever get dkwn in this game they will have a lot of trouble with their semi decent offense to put up points. It doesnt matter if you think they have the second hardest schedule. They get blown out by those good teams (pats and cowboys) then beat some of the worse teams barely, such as the jets.

[outdrawed]

LOL they have better special teams than the bears? One of the biggest factor will be hester, because if the redskins ever get dkwn in this game they will have a lot of trouble with their semi decent offense to put up points. It doesnt matter if you think they have the second hardest schedule. They get blown out by those good teams (pats and cowboys) then beat some of the worse teams barely, such as the jets.

lol, whoops. Yeah, the Bears have a better special teams. I looked at the wrong ranking and didn't use common sense to realize the Devin Hester is a man among boys.

Anywho, everyone's been blown out by the Pats, and the Redskins lost by 5 to the Cowboys IN Dallas, so I have no idea what you're talking about there. As for the Miami and Jets games, they played down to their opponent, no doubt about it. They also handily beat the Eagles and Lions, kept it close IN Green bay, and completely dominated the Bucs in Tampa Bay. (Outgained TB by 220 yards.)

You're cherry picking stats and games instead of looking at the season as a whole. Barely beating two bad teams doesn't automatically mean the Redskins are a bad team, especially when they've played well against some of the better teams. Perhaps they play worse against worse opponents, but there's not enough games in the season to definitively determine that.

[outdrawed]

Miami up to +7.5

I feel like I'm getting an early Xmas.

[outdrawed]

My plays thus far:

Redskins -3 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91u

Dolphins +7.5 (-110)
Risk 2u to win 1.81u

Packers -10 (-120)
Risk 2u to win 1.67u

Line was -10.5 (-110) and I was able to buy the half point for 10 cents. Ganchrow's calculator has the half point from 10.5 to 10 equal to about 12 cents and change, so the buy was the right play. The Raiders only look like they're coming on strong, but don't let them fool you. They haven't been able to pass all year, and I'm not about to pretend that last week was an indication of what's to come. There's a reason McCown was backing up Culpepper the journeyman and Oakland drafted Russell with the first overall. Oakland's running game plays right into GB's strength, and the emergence of Ryan Grant has vaulted GB into one of the top rushing teams in the league. Oakland falls back to earth a bit.

2-team Teaser:
Vikes -2.5/Giants +9

Vikes opened at 7 and the line continues to rise. It's at 9-9.5 at some places, so getting being able to tease it from 8.5 is a gift. Teased the Giants from -3 (-125) to +9, which is getting almost 6.5 points. I haven't really done too much analysis on either of these games, and this play is done purely because the math tells me to.

[Deceptive]

ANYONE WHO GOES AGAINST YOUR PICKS WILL GO 4-0 COUNT ON IT, YOU HAVE NO STATISTICAL BASIS ON YOUR PICKS, JUST EMOTION. EMOTION LOSES MONEY. HOW CAN A TEAM THAT IS WINLESS BE UNDERRATED GIVE ME A BREAK AND HAVE YOU SEEN TENN. PLAY, S.D. MAY SUCK BUT THEY SURE CAN SCORE NUMBERS PROVE IT, PLUS I WILL TAKE L.T. RUNNING OVER ANY TITAN R.B.

[outdrawed]

Actually, pretty much all my games are bet using statistics. I have no idea where you got the idea I'm using emotion in my picks.

With Albert Haynesworth, the Titans are 7-2 (losses to Indy and TB) and giving up 16 points a game. Everyone assumes the Titans are a horrible football team because they got absolutely demolished without Haynesworth. Well, now he's back.

SD has beat two crappy teams in the past two weeks and now everybody is back on their jock. I think SD is good, and I think SD is better than Tennessee, but with HFA, getting Tenn as a PK or at +1 is great value to me.

As for LT being better than any Titan back. Well jeez, it's a good thing there's 22 players on the field at one time, huh?

[Deceptive]

Actually, pretty much all my games are bet using statistics. I have no idea where you got the idea I'm using emotion in my picks.

With Albert Haynesworth, the Titans are 7-2 (losses to Indy and TB) and giving up 16 points a game. Everyone assumes the Titans are a horrible football team because they got absolutely demolished without Haynesworth. Well, now he's back.

SD has beat two crappy teams in the past two weeks and now everybody is back on their jock. I think SD is good, and I think SD is better than Tennessee, but with HFA, getting Tenn as a PK or at +1 is great value to me.

As for LT being better than any Titan back. Well jeez, it's a good thing there's 22 players on the field at one time, huh?

Well if you knew anything about football you would know that while their are 22 players on the field there is only one ball carrier at a time and that person can make a big difference on any team i.e. adrian peterson for the vik's. so take tenn. as they fade into the second half of the season.

[outdrawed]

That would explain Oakland's success this year.

Also, Ten's run D >>> SD's run D, if you want to play that game.

[etothep]

personally, the chargers are one of the teams who i refuse to bet on or against this season as there is just no telling which chargers team will show up

i can just as easily see them losing by 10 or more as i can see them winning by 14+

[outdrawed]

That's a good point. Chargers are the 4th streakiest team as of last week.

[outdrawed]

Week 13 DVOA Numbers are out.

I may eat a little bit of crow on the Dolphins/Bills game, as DVOA has the Bills as 4.5 points better than Miami on a neutral field. I still feel comfortable getting 7.5 points against a team that has massive problems scoring though.

Same on Bears/Skins. I completely underestimated how much the Bears would rise. DVOA has them around a point or so worse than the Skins. I may stick with the one unit I have.

So taking a quick glance at the numbers, decent bets look like Jets +3.5, Lions +11.5, Falcons +4.5, Chiefs +6.5, Jags -10.5

I'll do some more analysis on the games such as matchups and whatnot later, but for now, I'll back down off some of my earlier picks. I still think they're good plays, but not as good as before.

[outdrawed]

Some nice totals I'm looking at here...

Car/Jax O38

Jacksonville's offense is better than people think, and its defense is worse than people think. The Jags have scored at least 24 points in its last 6 games, and have gone over 38 in those 6 as well. Carolina may not have a powerful offense, but I think we can expect Jax to put up 28 at least, and then it's a matter of Carolina getting two scores.

Ari/Sea U45.5

This line is silly. We're looking at two averagish offenses, an average D, and a very good D. This line is about 6 points too high.

NO/Atl O42.5

A good O and 2 bad D's and the line is right in the middle? Hmmmmm. Take the over.

Colts/Ravens U44.

This is juicier than...Juicy Juice. No seriously. The Ravens' offense is still pathetic. Both Ds are in the Top 6. You could probably make a lot of money if you just bet the under in every Colts game while Peyton was the QB. Nothing against him, but in fact, it's mad props to the outstanding defense the Colts have.

Chargers/Titans U41

As discussed above.

[hamburglar628]

I agree with you on the Colts/Ravens. Ravens will be running the ball most of the game just like the patriots since it was the first time they actually looked decent on offense. With Manning being hurried a lot, I don't see a lot of scoring at all.