[Orion1178]

There's a lot of matchups where teasing a 2 pt line to 8 pts is massive value. You're going over basically every key number when you do that

You can check this yourself - on draftkings, if you take an alternate line from 2 points to 8 points, the line is like -330. Teasing 2 games is basically the equivalent of -275 each


The key is to bet teams that are very reliable to tease from 8 down to 2ish (always tease below 3) and then certain matchups where a close game is very likely

[19th Hole]

The best way to make $$$$ in the NFL is to have the winner.

[Booya711]

Fading Johnnyvegas is the best way

[DrunkHorseplayer]

There's a lot of matchups where teasing a 2 pt line to 8 pts is massive value. You're going over basically every key number when you do that

You can check this yourself - on draftkings, if you take an alternate line from 2 points to 8 points, the line is like -330. Teasing 2 games is basically the equivalent of -275 each


The key is to bet teams that are very reliable to tease from 8 down to 2ish (always tease below 3) and then certain matchups where a close game is very likely

Maybe DK likes to charge ridiculous extra juice on teasers to reel in the fish.

[raiders72001]

There's a lot of matchups where teasing a 2 pt line to 8 pts is massive value. You're going over basically every key number when you do that

You can check this yourself - on draftkings, if you take an alternate line from 2 points to 8 points, the line is like -330. Teasing 2 games is basically the equivalent of -275 each


The key is to bet teams that are very reliable to tease from 8 down to 2ish (always tease below 3) and then certain matchups where a close game is very likely

Those are Wong teasers when you cross 3 and 7. You can beat them at -110 but not -120. Break even -110 is around -262 parlaying 2 teams. Some 3 team 10 point teasers can be profitable at -120 at DK.

[Orion1178]

Those are Wong teasers when you cross 3 and 7. You can beat them at -110 but not -120. Break even -110 is around -262 parlaying 2 teams. Some 3 team 10 point teasers can be profitable at -120 at DK.

Not all teasers are equal

Certain teams play very close games. Teasing against a team like San Fran or Dallas (teams that have a tendency to have blowouts) is stupid

Teasing against Minnesota is a great idea

[raiders72001]

Not all teasers are equal

Certain teams play very close games. Teasing against a team like San Fran or Dallas (teams that have a tendency to have blowouts) is stupid

Teasing against Minnesota is a great idea

It's all math. If you are teasing down from 7.5 to 1.5 figure out the no-vig ML and deduct the value of the 1. If you tease down from 8.5 to 2.5 do the same deducting value of 1 and 2. I normally use the Pinny no-vig line when teasing down for my calculations. Each leg of a 2 team 6 pt teaser at -110 has to win 72.4% of the time.

[gauchojake]

OP solved gambling. Thanks

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OP solved gambling. Thanks

My two cents on Teasers:

1) SO OFTEN, I hear players say "I'm going to Tease that game." And it's just the #, doesn't have anything to do with their opinion on the game.

2) The Teaser ODDs have gotten worse over time. What do you pay on 2-team 6-pointers? -120?

3) I will go ahead and challenge someone to post their NFL Teasers on this site.
...If they can bet 40+ Teasers and clear +10% profit, I'll give them a prize.

Much easier said than done, IMHO.

[str]

All you need to do is watch ANY commercial that encourages gambling.

Teasers and parlays, same game parlays, is typically said in the first sentence or two. Because that is what
“ they” encourage the player, especially new players to do. The customer needs to hear that and realize that their most profitable scenarios are exactly what they are pushing.
Like Raiders said , it’s all math . These places are hopeful people do not take that into consideration.
Same at the racetrack. Bet Triples! Bet Pick 6’s! And what’s the biggest rake for the tracks? Take a Guess.

[raiders72001]

My two cents on Teasers:

1) SO OFTEN, I hear players say "I'm going to Tease that game." And it's just the #, doesn't have anything to do with their opinion on the game.

2) The Teaser ODDs have gotten worse over time. What do you pay on 2-team 6-pointers? -120?

3) I will go ahead and challenge someone to post their NFL Teasers on this site.
...If they can bet 40+ Teasers and clear +10% profit, I'll give them a prize.

Much easier said than done, IMHO.

[raiders72001]

Saw an 8.5 with Det and teased it with Indy.

When I played at 5Dimes they used teaser protection and may move a 7.5 to 9. Nitrobetting allowed me to tease a heavy 8.5 down to 2.5 as shown in the pic above. Nitrobetting has 6 pt -110 even though I teased down an 8.5 -114.

Their 6 pt teasers are -110 and 6.5 -120.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice, Raiders.

Here's one counter that I put to Teaser bettors. Can anyone confirm that TEASERS produce a better ROI than Parlays?

Take the example above. Both sides won SU/ATS. A parlay pays +260.

So often a Teaser seems like a crutch to me. I just don't believe that Teasers are a license to print money.

[raiders72001]

Nice, Raiders.

Here's one counter that I put to Teaser bettors. Can anyone confirm that TEASERS produce a better ROI than Parlays?

Take the example above. Both sides won SU/ATS. A parlay pays +260.

So often a Teaser seems like a crutch to me. I just don't believe that Teasers are a license to print money.

Parlays are awful unless correlated. For teasers as I said earlier, it's all math. Teasing down a heavy 8.5 is a huge advantage when the line should be 10. The second leg doesn't even have to meet the 72.4% break even leg.

[raiders72001]

Then there were books in the past that had 3 team 6 point teasers at +180. I can't find that anymore.

[raiders72001]

At one time Nitrobetting made a mistake and they were allowing .5 pt alternate lines to be teased at -110. If a line was 1, you could use the alternate line of 1.5 and tease that to 7.5. That doesn't exist anymore either.

[raiders72001]

FD allows correlated but only up to a certain percentage. Many allow correlated up to 25%, some 33%. Example of 25%, A line of 10 with a total of 40 could be parlayed +10 with u40.

Thursday night game they are allowing correlated.

[Orion1178]

All you need to do is watch ANY commercial that encourages gambling.

Teasers and parlays, same game parlays, is typically said in the first sentence or two. Because that is what
“ they” encourage the player, especially new players to do. The customer needs to hear that and realize that their most profitable scenarios are exactly what they are pushing.
Like Raiders said , it’s all math . These places are hopeful people do not take that into consideration.
Same at the racetrack. Bet Triples! Bet Pick 6’s! And what’s the biggest rake for the tracks? Take a Guess.

Lot of people are stupid and tease dumb lines

Leasing a -4 into a +2.5 for example or teasing a +6 to +12. If a team is +6, it means there's a significant possibility of a blowout

Teasing overs is incredibly stupid also. If the line is 54, 48 doesn't really help that much

[raiders72001]

Lot of people are stupid and tease dumb lines

Leasing a -4 into a +2.5 for example or teasing a +6 to +12. If a team is +6, it means there's a significant possibility of a blowout

Teasing overs is incredibly stupid also. If the line is 54, 48 doesn't really help that much

same goes with teasing college. Never do that.

[raiders72001]

I may not play any teasers this week but here are the teams to look at if you do. Bears, Hou, Wash, Chargers, Rams. I was going to tease down Philly but passed. It's not a good leg.

[Orion1178]

I may not play any teasers this week but here are the teams to look at if you do. Bears, Hou, Wash, Chargers, Rams. I was going to tease down Philly but passed. It's not a good leg.

I teased bears, Hou, wash and chargers but not the rams. Arizona has been a competitive spunky little team. Wouldn't surprise me if they pull the upset

Bears have been real competitive recently
Houston has been competitive all year
I love chargers getting 8 pts at home. They very rarely get blown out at home

I don't tease favorites down unless it's 8 or 9 pts down to 2 or 2.5. I think that's the best value

[Orion1178]

same goes with teasing college. Never do that.

Teasing college is retarded. Plenty of matchups where spread is 2 pts and loses by 30

Teasing anything but nfl is stupid

[Eddy Munny]

So teasing NBA is the best bet?

[Orion1178]

So teasing NBA is the best bet?

Are you being sarcastic? Nba teasers are awful

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Orion:

*Keep this thread going.

I understand Raiders' posts. If a book is a little slow to move a #, I can see big edges on banging out the Wong teasers. The example of Det/Car is a good one, -2.5 was awfully good.

I'm still skeptical. I think it's hard to identify two sides that are going to get there. If you see a book with the right juice/lines, I guess it's possible.

[Orion1178]

Orion:

*Keep this thread going.

I understand Raiders' posts. If a book is a little slow to move a #, I can see big edges on banging out the Wong teasers. The example of Det/Car is a good one, -2.5 was awfully good.

I'm still skeptical. I think it's hard to identify two sides that are going to get there. If you see a book with the right juice/lines, I guess it's possible.

Teasing 9 to 2.5 is a great choice, you just gotta be on upset alert and smell out potential problems

Carolina at Detroit IMO will win 90+% of the time. Even if it's a close game, carolina has a rookie QB - the odds of him pulling it out is very unlikely

I loved teasing KC 9 to 2.5 at jets. The odds of mahomes losing to zach Wilson is very unlikely

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Teasing 9 to 2.5 is a great choice, you just gotta be on upset alert and smell out potential problems

Carolina at Detroit IMO will win 90+% of the time. Even if it's a close game, carolina has a rookie QB - the odds of him pulling it out is very unlikely

I loved teasing KC 9 to 2.5 at jets. The odds of mahomes losing to zach Wilson is very unlikely

I'm talking about Car/Det LAST week.

As for 9 to 2.5, again we're getting into pricing. Some guys do the 6.5-pt Teaser, but at what price?

I understand Raiders' comment that it's all math. In my experience the math doesn't line up, unless you are getting the line/juice you need.

[Orion1178]

I'm talking about Car/Det LAST week.

As for 9 to 2.5, again we're getting into pricing. Some guys do the 6.5-pt Teaser, but at what price?

I understand Raiders' comment that it's all math. In my experience the math doesn't line up, unless you are getting the line/juice you need.

Yes I know, I meant the car/det last week was a great play. That play will win 90% of the time in hypothetical scenarios

I think either an 8 to 9 to 2.5 is the best favorite teaser but again you have to smell out upsets

I'll tease every 8-9 pt spread against Bryce Young. These rookie QBs tend to have a very poor straight up record because you have to learn to win close games. Cj stroud is the rare exception but he plays like a veteran

[DJK]

So, are you up for the season playing teasers?

Personally, ML parlay is the better option for me instead of teasers.

[Orion1178]

So, are you up for the season playing teasers?

Personally, ML parlay is the better option for me instead of teasers.

Teasing 9 to 2.5 is a much better play than parlaying 400 MLs

Not that many games are decided by 1 or 2 pts. So far I'm 3-1 on teasers

Teasing 9 to 2.5 is basically a -275 parlay. Much better than parlaying straight up at -400. Very few games are decided by 1 or 2 pts

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Keep posting Teaser plays, Orion. Prove me wrong.

Very tough. One OTHER reason why Teasers got tougher:
*The new Overtime rule yields more Ties.
...When will the next -8.5 land a Tie?

[Orion1178]

Keep posting Teaser plays, Orion. Prove me wrong.

Very tough. One OTHER reason why Teasers got tougher:
*The new Overtime rule yields more Ties.
...When will the next -8.5 land a Tie?

Here's my rules on it

For favorite teasers - I try to avoid playing teams that have a tendency to underperform vs bad opponents and playing against teams that are overperforming. Arizona has been much better than expected. I try to play situations where it comes down to a close game, the favorite is way more likely to win. Mahomes is great in close games for example. I also prefer home faves much more than road faves. Road faves get upset way more often

For underdog teasers - main thing is to avoid matchups where the favorite is an explosive team that can put up a lot of points. I love underdog teasers where the fave has a very weak offense because 7 8 points is a ton in that scenario. I'll tease every small underdog against Pittsburg or LV this year because both teams have awful offenses. There's also certain teams that seem to always play close games. Every game Minnesota plays seems to come down to the end. I'll tease every +1 or +2 vs Minnesota

[raiders72001]

I'm talking about Car/Det LAST week.

As for 9 to 2.5, again we're getting into pricing. Some guys do the 6.5-pt Teaser, but at what price?

I understand Raiders' comment that it's all math. In my experience the math doesn't line up, unless you are getting the line/juice you need.

Look at Ari/Rams. At pinny the ML is +256 and -306. The no-vig line is +/- 268.32. That's an implied probability of winning 72.85%. If you tease from -6.5 to .5, that's the same as ML. So you would need to find a 6.5.

In order to beat -110, you have to win 52.38% of the time. 110/210. You have to play at a place such as Nitrobetting to get -110.

A teaser is nothing more than a parlay. So I look to get two legs above 72.37%. Square root of .5238 is .7237. Rams chance of winning is 72.85%. You also want to consider line movement. If you think the line will go up that increases the implied probability of winning. That's what I do such as the Det game.

Normally I look for a lot better -7.5 to -1.5 but then you have to deduct the value of 1 because it's a loss.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Makes sense, Raiders. See my post 31. I'm of the opinion that Ties will come in more regularly under the Revised tie rules.

[raiders72001]

I use to get 3 teamers at +180

100/280 = .3571. Cubed root of .3571 is .7094. Then you only have to win 70.94% of the time.