[kingdom]

Tease either team with the under and you can't lose. neither team can score. i took the bears because of the extra point. juice only counts when you lose..

[d2bets]

Is this satire?

[kingdom]

not at all. how do you pick a side between these two teams. i haven't lost a teaser in 3 weeks

[kingdom]

i always thought it funny people bet huge favorites with the ponies, and would kill for a 70% gain in the market. but won't risk it on a baseball and football game. i haven't lost in baseball in over 5 years betting favs. you don't play every -120 or -140, but it can be situationally good.

[d2bets]

not at all. how do you pick a side between these two teams. i haven't lost a teaser in 3 weeks

How does the juice only count if you lose? If I have $100 in my pocket to wager and I lay -110, I can get back $191. If I lay -130, I can only get back $177. The juice matters when you win.

[kingdom]

it was a fun figure of speech. but if you win much more often by taking the favorites, especially in baseball, you can win more with proper strategy. i have baylor and added ucf at a terrible ml number just to get a better number. many struggle to hit 50 percent at -110. i've gone on some big runs with teasers as well as baseball systems. with -110 i get a lot of back and forth like most.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good logic for sure.

These bastards (Bears) are down 5 in a game w/ 19 pts. Missed FG might be your saving grace.

I know Soldier Field used to be a tough venue for kickers.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

it was a fun figure of speech. but if you win much more often by taking the favorites, especially in baseball, you can win more with proper strategy. i have baylor and added ucf at a terrible ml number just to get a better number. many struggle to hit 50 percent at -110. i've gone on some big runs with teasers as well as baseball systems. with -110 i get a lot of back and forth like most.

Kingdom, keep it going. If you think it's value, fire away.

My one word of caution:
*NFL Teasers have become lexicon of the NFL talking heads. As if it's +EV on a plate.

I'm convinced these talking-heads heard about Teasers from years ago and now just repeat it. Analyze the variance and fire when you think it fits!

[d2bets]

Bears receivers can't catch the ball.

[d2bets]

Bears receivers can't catch the ball.

Yep.

[kingdom]

fields is a one man show. bears haven't invested in offense in years. much like the ravens. in a receiver draft, the ravens took queen and dobbins with their first two picks. trevor lawrence has limited help as well. if you draft a qb in the first round, help him. eagles and bills are a great example of what happens when you help your qb. and also, i guess i should have teased baylor with ucf also lol.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

fields is a one man show. bears haven't invested in offense in years. much like the ravens. in a receiver draft, the ravens took queen and dobbins with their first two picks. trevor lawrence has limited help as well. if you draft a qb in the first round, help him. eagles and bills are a great example of what happens when you help your qb. and also, i guess i should have teased baylor with ucf also lol.

Haha, no Coll FB Teasers. You're smarter than that.

I really wonder about the pricing assumptions of the NFL teaser. Underlying assumption was that so many games landed on 3 and 7.

Yes, but that's historical. The databases even go back to b4 the 2-pt conversion. I remember watching games that were 31-23. Team scores TD at gun...but can't go for 2. Meaningless XPt and they lose 31-30.

So many different combinations now with the longer XPt and different viable coaching options on the 2. Look at the KC/Raid game. At 30-23, Reid opts for 2. Big impact on the +7 ATS (if that's the last score). And there was a chance it lands 9...which was a dead NFL number for so many years.

[kingdom]

this year the league is filled with parity. that has been a big help. there are not many good qb's this year and it makes for close games. i mean the jets have 3 wins. many avg teams with winning records. i have to take a look at this weeks games. i been busy but i like to cap when last sunday's game are fresh in my mind.

[stake1]

these “tnf” games are the ugliest versions of football ever witnessed

[ChuckyTheGoat]

these “tnf” games are the ugliest versions of football ever witnessed

Yes, they're bad. The players have talked about the lack of preparation time. Any player carrying an injury from Sunday is going to have a very tough time looking good four days later.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

this year the league is filled with parity. that has been a big help. there are not many good qb's this year and it makes for close games. i mean the jets have 3 wins. many avg teams with winning records. i have to take a look at this weeks games. i been busy but i like to cap when last sunday's game are fresh in my mind.

Kingdom, you're a smart guy. Good stuff.

After tonite's game...league average scoring is down APPROXIMATELY 3 pts (from 2021). 46ppg to 43ppg.

Try to identify the reasons for that. For me:
1) Too many bad QBs, especially backups forced into action b/c of injury.
2) Monsoon game. The SF/CHI game sticks out. Really, a Bear win is unlikely there on a dry field.
3) More inclement weather games. Impacting games on the eastern seaboard. Wind/rain after the storm passed.

Your logic on dog/under and teasers in tight games makes sense to me. Good Luck, hope you keep hitting em.

[kingdom]

thanks chucky. i have a thread in the nfl forum with my fav plays and tease plays. gl to you as well sir.

[Bostongambler]

Kingdom Come!

[Booya711]

these “tnf” games are the ugliest versions of football ever witnessed

It doesn’t matter the day, the bears are trash