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how i handicap the NFL
basically it's 3 part system number 1 ATS handicap i dont give a flying fawwwkkkk about anything else anylast say or others in forums thats all opionated
the only thing that counts is what goes up on the score board
like say for example team A scored 150 points and allowed only 65 after 5 weeks
+85 point differntial divided by 5 wks = +17 ppg
Team B a DIV rival scored 85 but allowed 120 - 35 dived by 5 = -7 ppg
so we have +17 and neg -7 add togther to get difference on the 0 line between 2 points or teams
this is 24 17 + -7 = +10 for home fav
home fav is -8 points so pupy is +1 home fav drops to +9 and guess what your good
2nd i use my ATS charts best system ever updated weekly teams will fail after crossing over the 0 line from negative to pos
some never go plus they can lose ats for weeks like the steelers now 4 str8 negatives but they gotta stick with pickett now no matter what let him grow with the team
so i just compare teams on my charts my fav is 100% like one team trending negative other team head up to break through the 0 line aka 2 teams headed in opposite directions
like the chargers should have dropped negative @ the browns but browns spread dropped to +1.5 and they lost by 2 points blowing a 14 -0 early lead so now chargers down to +0.5 DEnv now totally screwd but may be backup QB can get team moving as a matter of fact Denv is making a U turn under the 0 line -6.5 to -6.5
now im liking them to cover or pull off upset
then part 3 of my system teams schedules like this Eagles week 4 beat Jaguars 29-21 but as a -6.5 fav dropped on charts to +2.5 next game at cardinals with huge lookahed to top rival of all cowboys i couldnt wait hmmer cards +5.5 and use in p lay and teaser combos BOOM eagles almost lost the game 20-17 win
injury reports early dont matter thats already figured in but late injury reports on game day matter
also quite a few times teams big mouths will cause u to lose s/u
like cowboys when 1st playing new team houston texans we will not be 1st team to lose to this new team
yipesssssssssssssssss Texans saw the report and went in to cowboys old home and beat them s/u
Dolphins vs Jaguars i faded as huge chalk because they had div rival up week 2
read after game a dolphins player said to other teams player see ya after practice buddy
he runs back to his bench and tells team they think we are a practice pre season team dolphins was huge DD Chalk and lost home opener s/u
this stuff you have no control over tempers fly hi in game causing players to be ejected even the HC
like years ago old Oak raiders VS chiefs omg fist to fist in games
that why they instituted the new taunting rule
make the play and walk away be a robot if other player pushes or shoves you walk away say something and beat them on the score board
but they dont and causes ejections or penalties 15 yards
so thats it my 4 part system has kept me ahead of locals and now the legal sports books
oooooooooooo btw no NFL game can be fixed by outside money no body can approach teams players or refs before games thats why they do not release who's reffing where before game day the ref rotation is hard to figure but some ref teams are known for exceissve fllagging so when you get that info then you know they have hatred of certain players or head coaches go other side.
my newphew 2 weeks ago on phone started in that Players talk to friends and family members telling them to bet on other team or on them in other words he was saying games are fixed so i just said yes yes yes and hung up
told him what bets i had in then after i won em all i said Butchie what happened i guess the players called menot really i dint say that just said i won $275.75
how i learned to handicap NFL long story started with best friend picking all games every week no money just for fun finally year 3 i figured it out
and of course super revenge games long ago Packers lost at cowboys bad all FG's by dallas had 6 but didnt ask GB if ok to kick 7th for the record next year Packers at home blowing spreads like crazy vs every team
then it came up Packers -6 vs Cowboys told my buddy who played in high limits 7 stud packers was a LOCK
so all the others big money guys took cowboys for $1000's and after game was over they said guess your freind knew what he was talking about
i told others i was playing at low lmit 1-5 who bet Cowboys why you gonna lose they laughed
then after game was over and i won my $100 wager in my sports book i said nice now i got extra $100 i can cash out
it was so cool to get cash at the casino i just gave info to operator where i was and name n phone number for them to verify it
but all gone now wtf every casino in ac nj and in near me has sports betting every day
wish i could just stay in casino and do live bets every sunday but wife would need cash to play slots and thats all day from like 12 noon till 5 pm she sometimes goes bust in 1.5 hours and if i got money tied up in bets cant give her any to try n win back
ok goota jett bad night last night gambling in casino $120 cash lost should have left after winning back $78 from last 20$ i had but stupid me didnt want to take the $50 loss
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Originally Posted by OldBill
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