1. #1
    arie1985
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    LA Rams vs SF 49ers - O/U 42.5 - How to play it right? It's simple

    When you look at the line of 42.5 what is more "difficult" for you to imagine that would happen, which bet is more difficult for you to place here? Over or Under. The answer should be simple.

    The bet that feels more difficult for you to place - that is the correct bet for tonight's game.

    Here, I helped you double your money.

  2. #2
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
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    Yes, often we find that the most "difficult" bet to make is the bet that wins.

    This is a fact of the jagged little pill that is the markets. It is born out of perception not being in line with structural reality. In other words, you may think you understand what are watching because you saw it, but we know that can be very decieving. If you're not making some kind of comparative ratings and matching teams not just against each other, but against the league as a whole, then your subjective capping will be weakened as what you see disconnects with what is actually happening.

    This will evetnually lead to bad bets.

    All that said, over the long haul worry far less about making the bet that wins and worry far more about making winning bets.


  3. #3
    stevenash
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    ^
    Ironic you just posted that, I was just thinking about betting the over tonight.
    Good advice, as per usual there.

    I like the Rams, I'm all over the Draft Kings seven point promo.
    If one likes the Rams, it would be silly not to play it at DK.

  4. #4
    BuckyOne
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    So, you guys play by feel???

  5. #5
    Bostongambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckyOne View Post
    So, you guys play by feel???
    I bet by the sense of smell.

  6. #6
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    I bet by the sense of smell.
    Both Monte Carlo simulations and linear regression analysis show that there’s no other way.


  7. #7
    budwiser
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    I guess the easy play is the over.

    I will go over 42

    Easy play was the cowboys and chiefs yesterday too

  8. #8
    Bostongambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Both Monte Carlo simulations and linear regression analysis show that there’s no other way.

    Lol…

  9. #9
    hubie69
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckyOne View Post
    So, you guys play by feel???
    I make my bets on the Tessie Dawg pictures Nasher posts. It's a complicated science but with the use of a Random Forest Regressor we can splice the correct play from the image itself.

  10. #10
    sweethook
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    numbers dont lie , do the math ..

  11. #11
    juicername
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    Exactly. Facts don't care about your feelings. There's a reason why the Trumptards are the best biggest losers in sports betting.

  12. #12
    budwiser
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    Exactly. Facts don't care about your feelings. There's a reason why the Trumptards are the best biggest losers in sports betting.
    A lot of bettors in books are black

  13. #13
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser View Post
    I guess the easy play is the over.

    I will go over 42

    Easy play was the cowboys and chiefs yesterday too
    So bet the under then!

  14. #14
    juicername
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser View Post
    A lot of bettors in books are black
    And winning big.

  15. #15
    budwiser
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    So bet the under then!
    too late i bet the over. after i read this thread too.

  16. #16
    DwightShrute
    I don't believe you ... please continue
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  17. #17
    budwiser
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    looks like the under, got it wrong

    both teams can't score from inside the 5, missed fg, no turnovers. not happening

    good call on the under

  18. #18
    stevenash
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    ^
    After yesterday's London clusterfuck I'm not calling anything done until the final whistle.
    That Viking game had no business going over, yet it did.

  19. #19
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by DwightShrute View Post
    Biden voter.

  20. #20
    DwightShrute
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    Biden voter.

  21. #21
    dante1
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    OMG, mr dwight is now up to 12 to 14 hours a day. I guess no swimming in the Caribbean "ocean" today.

    Imagine this idiot early in the morning to approaching midnight eastern time. just amazing!!!

  22. #22
    DwightShrute
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    Quote Originally Posted by dante1 View Post
    OMG, mr dwight is now up to 12 to 14 hours a day. I guess no swimming in the Caribbean "ocean" today.

    Imagine this idiot early in the morning to approaching midnight eastern time. just amazing!!!
    Over 13 hours of posting by you today dishonest dante. LOL. Just amazing. I don’t know what makes you so stupid, but it really works. Zero accomplishments as usual. Just dozens of posts filled with lies and incoherent dribble.

    You have an unhealthy infatuation about me 24/7, whereas I don't think about you at all.
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  23. #23
    TheMoneyShot
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    Quote Originally Posted by DwightShrute View Post
    Wagner lead with the helmet.... Fukk... woah. Guy got drilled.

  24. #24
    franklee168
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    Wagner lead with the helmet.... Fukk... woah. Guy got drilled.
    Helmet in the face. Love it!

  25. #25
    Nate rasta
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    L.A. is a shit hole.jibby needs to clean up the streets.the Bay way better aye

  26. #26
    budwiser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    L.A. is a shit hole.jibby needs to clean up the streets.the Bay way better aye
    Rams lost the backup center made a difference. the guy behind him Jeremiah Kolone I believe it was his first ever NFL game and he was horrible. Most of the time he was out there on an island looking for someone to block, that's not what you want out of an offensive lineman. Rams mortgaged their team for a one-year shot at a title and it showed

    Regardless the 49ers and the under was the play from the start

  27. #27
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser View Post
    Rams lost the backup center made a difference. the guy behind him Jeremiah Kolone I believe it was his first ever NFL game and he was horrible. Most of the time he was out there on an island looking for someone to block, that's not what you want out of an offensive lineman. Rams mortgaged their team for a one-year shot at a title and it showed

    Regardless the 49ers and the under was the play from the start
    Yeah, it can be tough when you're down to the third center.

    From a professional betting perspective the center, and health of the center, is arguably the most important individual player metric on the field. There are many reasons for this and they can be saved for another post but suffice to say it matters.

  28. #28
    KVB
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    I know you misinformation spreading political hack posters aren't exactly keen on self awareness but try to have the cerebral wherewithal to know your shit doesn't belong here.

    Of course maybe you think it does, or know it doesn't but naturally think someone else is to blame; either way get the fuk out. Go somewhere else, lie, then call each other liars. It's always that same script with all of you. Because of this fact, a Forum was created specifically for you "special" posters. Show some respect to SBR and use it.

    I would have a different tune if you guys weren't, collectively, such agenda pushing mis and dis information spreaders. I truly would sing a different tune. But the facts are what they are and integrity in that realm is gone for you guys, there is no defense for you there. Both COVID and American politics exposed educational failures, what's done is done.

    Now it's just a matter of hoping you don't continue to bring SBR down as well.

    Please have some self control when posting. Contain your nonsense, no need to see your vomit all over the place. Above all don't feel insulted and pretend like you must defend yourselves here. Just don't. Nobody wants to see that embarrassment.

    Thank you and Good Luck if you even bet.

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