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How Much Money Do You Plan to Lose on Preseason NFL this Year?
Everyone says they have a model to predict preseason NFL games that guarantees profit.
Who the fukk are you kidding? You are just throwing darts and just hoping to break even or just lose the juice.
I only bet $10 per game for shit and giggles and save my bankroll for Week 1 where teams play the starters.
If I hear once more that someone has a model to predict NFL preseason games I will go bananas.
Pavy be right about preseason football.
Bet backup QB's
Easy money
The Pre season is the free season
If Kyle Allen plays Washington will boat race Bengals on August 20th this is my play of the year.
There are plenty of preseason angles to attack with out there. There really are.
It takes the right matchups of teams that are working on specific areas of their game. The first step is to go team by team and see what the teams will be working on during the preseason. And what they won't need to work on until it gets closer to opening kickoff.
Understand things like poor defenses in the season before will get worked on during the preseason and depending on which aspect was poor, it could make a difference when they face certain teams looking to improve certain areas of offense.
The same things is true for areas of the game that won't be worked on during the preaseason.
Major cahnges, newplayers, etc. will get more work in the early preseason and as it gets closer to opening day, it becomes more about refining.
Harbaugh and Carroll actually want to win these games when it comes down to it.
Know that a coach isn't likely to try out a new offensive line or schemes while his star QB is under center, especially against a team working on the defensive line performance.
The gameplans unfortunately don't usually last the whole game and shit can fall apart toward the end, spoiling spread bets. But that can happen in the regular season too.
Be careful with the units in preseason, it's less a test of stats and edge and more a test of the ability to process a subjective side. It can also help prepare for the regular season.
I could go on, position by position and what the patterns are for most of how those positions or groups of positions get worked, or not worked, on in the preseason. It also gets a better looking at the coaches as well.
Betting preseason can be rewarding but patience is necessary to get the right matchup and defining value has to be done in a relative market way. How to determine that value is not something I think I've gone i over in the Forum, but I have done quite a bit on preseason analysis here.
Good Luck.
None.... got my $25 free bet w/ Heritage and it's do or die all the way 'til Tampa Bay begins to play!
Yep me too and I went all in on Pittsburgh. I don't give a rats ass about this game tomorrow but Pittsburgh does to some degree so I'm going with them since its a free play.Originally Posted by Headsterx
That's a great write up and like the coach point. But isn't there basically a new set of guys every quarter? Second halves maybe same back up guys I guess but hard to know how many points they're going to put up or be up against.There are plenty of preseason angles to attack with out there. There really are.
It takes the right matchups of teams that are working on specific areas of their game. The first step is to go team by team and see what the teams will be working on during the preseason. And what they won't need to work on until it gets closer to opening kickoff.
Understand things like poor defenses in the season before will get worked on during the preseason and depending on which aspect was poor, it could make a difference when they face certain teams looking to improve certain areas of offense.
The same things is true for areas of the game that won't be worked on during the preaseason.
Major cahnges, newplayers, etc. will get more work in the early preseason and as it gets closer to opening day, it becomes more about refining.
Harbaugh and Carroll actually want to win these games when it comes down to it.
Know that a coach isn't likely to try out a new offensive line or schemes while his star QB is under center, especially against a team working on the defensive line performance.
The gameplans unfortunately don't usually last the whole game and shit can fall apart toward the end, spoiling spread bets. But that can happen in the regular season too.
Be careful with the units in preseason, it's less a test of stats and edge and more a test of the ability to process a subjective side. It can also help prepare for the regular season.
I could go on, position by position and what the patterns are for most of how those positions or groups of positions get worked, or not worked, on in the preseason. It also gets a better looking at the coaches as well.
Betting preseason can be rewarding but patience is necessary to get the right matchup and defining value has to be done in a relative market way. How to determine that value is not something I think I've gone i over in the Forum, but I have done quite a bit on preseason analysis here.
Good Luck.
Pre season anything is a lottery imo just throw some bucks on +money shots for fun. Never really understood why pre season NFL is taken quite seriously by punters, had always put it down to lack of football then the fun starts..but not really. Where as NBA, soccer, MLB etc have tonnes of actual games so no one really cares. But yeah 4 weeks worth of games I'm sure there is some quality plays in there if you do a bit of work and get a bit of luck.
I'm not betting the preseason this year. I want to see how teams are going to navigate the new format. Also over the last 4 to 5 years I've noticed an increase in interest and the late line movements have been taking away any edges that appear.
Won't be betting on Hall Of Game game but a few preseason games.
Tailing! Either the start of something or the beginning of the end. Let's go Steelers!
0.00
I have -$15,000 and -2900 points
I wont be gambling for quite some time
I don't bet NFL, preseason or regular season.
0 here,i dont like the pre season at all..
Do you guys set aside a certain amount for each sport?
What kinda question is this??
Why not? There is some great opportunity in the NFL. In some cases some of the best in any sport.
The other sports are like going to class, the NFL is like the paper you write after going to all the classes, and the NFL class too. The playoffs are the midterms and the Superbowl is the final exam.
If you go to class you have a good shot at testing well.
After all, they do the same thing every year. I'll show it in the CFL this year and you can see how that same thing just requires more patience at different times of the season for the NFL.
We'll just have to see what order the market runs as the season gets under way.
I have a model that predics pre-season, regular season, playoffs, player props and drafts..
Its strong across the board..
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Strong across the board!!
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