fyi, never a good thing to see plus money on a fav
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10-08-20 10:11 AM #1
Plus money now on tampa for the game and 1st half tonite
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10-08-20 10:14 AM #2
Chicago is, quit honestly, not a very talented team.
They are now on their backup QB.
I'm of the opinion Brady is going to sputter out here later myself as well, but TB wins this game
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10-08-20 10:17 AM #3
i like the under tonite and chicago for the 1st half
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10-08-20 10:19 AM #4
Minn I have to agree....they flat out aren't good-missing simple passes and out routes....Foles was not as sharp as people were hoping....
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10-08-20 10:20 AM #5
tampa open -5-105 and now -3.5 at plus 7 for the game, anytime you drop that much and now +07 money, you never play the fav.but this game is a long way off.the key will be the window about 15 to 20 min before the game if it still plus money more than 05, no way in hell you play tampa............
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10-08-20 10:24 AM #6
First full game as starter. They needed to see things in live action and now can adjust. Foles could do quite well.
Originally Posted by PaperTrail07
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10-08-20 10:26 AM #7
What is the Bears close + money, but it's at +3. Like Bears +3+103/Tampa -3-111. Then what, swami? I'm assuming we're talking Pinnacle. Originally Posted by carolinakid
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10-08-20 10:28 AM #8
yes when you have plus money on 1st half and game after dropping almost 2 pts, you never play the fav, but again we need to see where this thing is about 30 min before game and watch it for at least 15 mins to see if it get stronger or the line stay weak like it is now......if it stayed weak like it is now, i will use chicago as a SIP play
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10-08-20 10:29 AM #9
I do understand what you are saying, but it's not always so clear. Originally Posted by carolinakid
FYI I do think Bears is the play.
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10-08-20 10:32 AM #10
i mean it not a sure thing, but the dog will win more of these type of games than lose.for the people that been on forums for some time, they know i work the plus thing out pretty good at times in the football and college basketball
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10-08-20 10:36 AM #11
So you have it all covered. Nice. Hopefully the bears win Originally Posted by d2bets
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10-08-20 10:39 AM #12
Indi really put the film out on blocking Mack + Quinn.
Chicago is worthless if the can't get sacks and either flip the field or create turnovers.
That offense is better w Turbinsky. Foles cannot sustain long drives w those scrappy wrs
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10-08-20 10:42 AM #13
I really thought that Mitch would be better today if he had stayed at unc for at least another year before going to the nfl.
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10-08-20 01:18 PM #14
I get that but people think the chemistry magically develops in 1 week...not buying it....
Originally Posted by d2bets
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10-08-20 01:19 PM #15
Unless its rigged-you simply don't want your $ on the bears----they have less talent FLAT OUT
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10-08-20 03:17 PM #16
Defensive or special teams TD +232 @Pinnacle
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10-08-20 03:19 PM #17
as of 418 eastern time the plus money is no longer on the game 3.5-02, but still still plus money on the 1st half -3 +02, i will never play the plus money angle unless it +05 or higher.......i still say this total will go under....
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10-08-20 03:29 PM #18
A move of 5 to 3.5 is not that big a deal. I like the UNDER tonight.
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10-08-20 03:39 PM #19
it is when you see high plus money right before the game.Casual bettors are backing Brady at this time, 77% of the spread tickets are on the bucs.But big bettors are on the other side.23% of the spread tickets account for 66% of money wagers are on Chicago.the largest wagers as of now are on Chicago.......
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10-08-20 03:42 PM #20
what i want to see happen here is for the game line of -3.5 go to plus 7 or 8 or maybe even drop to -3 with plus money about 20 min before the kickoff.gl guys with your bets in this game tonite.(ck)
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10-08-20 05:18 PM #21
Whatever helps tuck you in at night. Originally Posted by carolinakid
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10-08-20 05:21 PM #22
it call working the numbers ^^^^^^^^^
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10-08-20 05:26 PM #23
Tampa or no play for me after watching that Indy game. Bears need to prove their worth to me. Under seems logical
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10-08-20 05:45 PM #24
with over a hr to go the 1st half is a play at this time, but we still have a long way to go before the kickoff, i want to see at least plus 7 on tampa in the 15 min before the game......
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10-08-20 05:50 PM #25
relax the line is wrong
Tampa should be -6.5
I have made lines all my lifePoints Awarded:
Ryermkd gave jjgold 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-08-20 05:52 PM #26
not tonite JJ, too many large bets on the bears tonite.........
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10-08-20 05:52 PM #27
The money on this issue is far more split than you realize but earlier in the week there's no question that move and jump from 5.5 down to 4.5 was "reverse line movement" and even blwoing through was more or less a steam move on top of that. Originally Posted by carolinakid
But as the closing tickets begin to come in I think you'll find that this line will likely rest at the 3.5 barrier, and the prices might just be close to -110 (-108, -105, whatever) prices on each side.
Sometimes there's the appearance of postions in the market and sometimes moves are signifcant and there are positions. This one could be a little deceptive because of the early stages of movement but really, in the end, they knew 3.5 was the mark.
So one of the only reasons originators give them the 5.5 is to work with that development of appearance.
My stacking percentages forecast has Tampa Bay winning the game with 24 points to Chicago's 20 or 21 points. My non-predictive public gauge has a closer game with Tampa winning 24-23.
Full disclosure...Over the last 100 consecutaive games the stacking forecast has been 49-45-6 against the opening line and 47-49-4 against the closer. It has been 60-34-6 against the opening Totals and 55-42-3 against the closers.
Good Luck ck
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10-08-20 05:56 PM #28
thanks KVB, you are right on the topic imo, that why i said i want to see in the last 30 mins down to the 15 min window what going on with the number.bol tonite sir with your action......
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10-08-20 05:56 PM #29
It's not what you think ck. Originally Posted by carolinakid
In fact, by the end, whatever your source of info, I'm sure my compilation of info, including calls from vegas and offshore, will likely show that the money is more split and may even show more money on TB Tom by the close.
Make no mistake, the public tickets are very likely to be on TB, and it's a lot of tickets. The money is there too.
We might have seen some market manipulation to get this line lower, but books are being stubborn at 3.5.
Shit, line could even jump to -4 before it's over, but I think they were hoping for -3 before hitting it again if it was manipulated early.
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10-08-20 05:57 PM #30
btw i think your numbers are pretty close, i was thinking along the same lines.
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10-08-20 05:59 PM #31
yes it been for the game on the 3.5 at plus money and then 3.5-2 or 3. we will get a strong move 1 way or the other imo in the last 30 mins, it will not be this number at kickoff
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10-08-20 06:03 PM #32
Tampa wins this one!
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10-08-20 06:04 PM #33
I got their 1st half points over 12.5
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10-08-20 06:05 PM #34
Going to drive yourself mental - especially when your “angle” doesn’t deliver. Contrary to popular belief, your crystal ball works as well as others - scraping numbers to quantify your edge is silly - make a hypothesis and bet on it because of your beliefs, not what some odds board “tells” you. Originally Posted by carolinakid
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10-08-20 06:11 PM #35
I'm one the UNDER 44.5 here. Originally Posted by KVB
I realize it's a 44 or 45 point game that is predicted in my forecast and it's done well withjust a .5 point discrepency to the market, but when I add market anlayisis the Total get's adjusted far lower.
It's that adjusted forecast that my Fund seeks when looking for triggers and I countered the public gauge and my raw, adjusted score, forecast.
The reasons aren't far off from some of your thinking in this thread ck but we haven't seen much line movement in the Total.
My sources so far have indicated that, consistent with the public gauge, the tickets are indeed on the OVER but the money is on the UNDER. My ratings so far indicate it's true but I do expect at least one more update during the last hour of trading to get a better picture.
Over the last 20 years and more than 5000 NFL games I tell you that 44 and 45 are pretty frequent numbers, or as many like to call them..."Key" numbers. It's tough to move this line during the week.
I don't like that because what people don't realize about "key" numbers, is that they are not static and while I just used the last 5000 games, you can go both further back, and more recent.
In fact, with some forecasts we adjust using a formula developed by yours truly that helps us factor in a recency bias for the key numbers. That formula is a response to things like rule changes and game evolution that can really do a number, pun intended, on the frequencies of NFL Totals.
I believe we are under another evolution phase where re-evaluating your own "Key" numbers is a good idea ck.
Good luck, mang.
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