Week 5 XFL best bets: A number we like on each game

ESPN INSIDER ($ MATERIAL)


Our experts -- ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian and Anita Marks, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network -- are here to give their best bets for XFL's Week 5 slate.


Records


Marks 8-5-1 (2-2-1 last week)
Bearman 4-1-1 (1-0-1)
Youmans 4-1 (2-0)
Kezirian 1-1 (1-1)


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Saturday's games


Seattle Dragons at Houston Roughnecks (-12.5, 46.5)

Bearman: Unders continue to dominate the XFL, with 11 of 16 games so far going under the total. Nine of the 16 games haven't hit 40 total points, and four of them haven't topped 30.


But what about this matchup? Three of the four Seattle games have stayed under, and the one that went over did so by half a point. The Dragons average 265.5 yards per game and 16 points per game (both second worst in the league), and they just benched Brandon Silvers at quarterback. Backup B.J. Daniels kept Seattle in the game last week, but he still only completed half of his passes after entering in the second half.


Houston has the best offense in the league, though, and Roughnecks games have been responsible for three of the five overs this season. However, Houston and Dallas (also a top-tier offense) played to a total of 47 last week, and that included a scoop-and-score TD and multiple short-drive scores for the Roughnecks due to the Landry Jones turnover machine. I don't see Seattle coming close to moving the ball as well as Dallas did.


Pick: Under 46.5


Marks: The Roughnecks have the best player in the XFL in quarterback P.J. Walker. I know it's a large number to lay, but Walker tosses the rock 70% of the time and the Dragons have the worst secondary in the league. Seattle allows the highest completion percentage and second-most yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.


It would be wise for Seattle to stick with B.J. Daniels as their starting quarterback, but a lot of what he is good at is running the ball (he had 85 yards rushing in the second half last week), and Houston's rush defense allows the fewest yards per carry.


Pick: Houston -12.5 and small play on over 46.5



New York Guardians at Dallas Renegades (-8, 36.5)

Bearman: This is simply too many points for a team to lay without its starting QB. The Dallas offense was already struggling with Jones and now will need to figure things out with Phillip Nelson under center. In the first game of the season, under Nelson, Dallas averaged 5.4 pass yards per attempt and didn't find the end zone, scoring nine points. The Renegades are averaging fewer than 20 PPG, so unless their defense (allowing 18 PPG) completely shuts New York down, that's a tough number.


The New York offense is bad -- dead last in the league in PPG (12.3) and YPG (236) -- but has shown a pulse under third-string QB Luis Perez. Perez led the Guardians to a TD and four scoring drives last week in a win over L.A. I'm not overly confident they are going to score that much, but neither will Dallas.


If it looks and smells like an under, it usually is. Take the points with the underdog and expect a similar low-scoring game like the one the Guardians played last week.


Pick: Guardians +8 and under 36.5


Marks: It was wise of the Guardians to roll with Luis Perez at quarterback last week. Let's hope they are wise enough to stick with him. Perez can be a solid game manager for the Guardians, who are better off without Matt McGloin.


The Guardians' defense will be able to do just enough to limit Dallas backup quarterback Philip Nelson. Jones is out two to four weeks with a knee injury, and Nelson just isn't very good. Dallas is a disappointing 0-2 at home.


Pick: Under 36.5 and small play on New York +8
Sunday's games


St. Louis BattleHawks (-4, 39) at DC Defenders

Marks: BattleHawks quarterback Jordan Ta'amu has been the biggest surprise of the XFL season. Last week's Player of the Week is completing 75% of his passes, has the best third-down conversion rate in the league and leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards.


Meanwhile, things aren't going well at the moment for the Defenders. Quarterback Cardale Jones went just 9-for-22 for 72 yards with no touchdowns and an interception last week and was pulled for the final seven minutes of the game. Over the past two weeks, Jones is sporting a 45% completion rate and has passed for only 175 total yards with no touchdowns and five interceptions.


Pick: St. Louis -4 and small play on over 39



Tampa Bay Vipers at Los Angeles Wildcats (-2, 40.5)

Kezirian: I anticipate a close game here, just as the point spread would indicate, but I like the home team enough to make a play. It comes down to the better coach and quarterback, which is often the case in football. Tampa Bay's Marc Trestman continues to demonstrate questionable decision-making, and Taylor Cornelius is inferior to Wildcats QB Josh Johnson.


The Wildcats have only one win, but I am optimistic given how their losses played out. They dropped the opener to Houston -- the XFL's best team -- and then lost to a healthy Jones and Dallas in Week 2. Following a blowout win, they lost by a field goal at New York in a game in which they statistically dominated but struggled mightily on third down. I expect a solid bounce-back performance at home. The Vipers are 0-2 straight up/against the spread on the road, and those trends should continue on Sunday.


Pick: Wildcats -2


Youmans: Despite missing the Wildcats' season opener, Johnson ranks third in the league with 788 yards passing. I rate him as the third-best QB in the XFL and suspect his best is yet to come because there is talent surrounding him. Tre McBride, picked up in a trade, totaled eight receptions for 127 yards and one touchdown last week when Nelson Spruce (third in the league in receiving yards) missed the game with an injury. Jordan Smallwood is another quality receiver. If Spruce returns for this game, expect Johnson to air it out and spread the ball around to those three big-play targets. Offensive coordinator Norm Chow must do a better job with the play-calling, though, as the Wildcats had only 40 rushing yards in last week's 17-14 loss at New York.


The Vipers' strength is their running back duo of DeVeon Smith and Jacques Patrick. Tampa Bay is probably overvalued this week after its 25-0 victory over a DC team that has turned into a dumpster fire, while L.A. is probably a little underrated at this point. The Wildcats were underdogs in the first three games and their role suddenly flipped to big road favorites last week, so it was not a big surprise that they failed in a new role. It's easier to bet the Wildcats as small home favorites here. A week ago, this line might have been -6, so this price looks cheap.


Pick: Wildcats -2


Marks: Trestman relinquished playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Jaime Elizondo two weeks ago, and it has made all the difference. Cornelius has looked more comfortable under center and is sporting a 77% completion rate since the change. The Vipers' offensive line is healthy, running back Quinton Flowers returned to the team this week and tight end Nick Truesdell is hoping to be active Sunday.


As for Los Angeles, Johnson will help the Wildcats put points on the board, but their defense gives up a ton of points and they are dealing with a number of injuries.


Pick: Over 40.5 and small play on Tampa Bay +2