[Matt Landes]

A close call for Clemson at North Carolina gave us some drama in an otherwise uneventful CFB weekend but we should learn a little more this coming week as conference schedules pick up some steam, with Iowa-Michigan and Auburn-Florida standing out as matchups of interest.

In the NFL there was plenty of intrigue, and as is often the case with a 15-game slate, there were also some misleading final scores that we can look to use to our advantage moving forward.

It's difficult to label any win by New England as misleading, given the Patriots' perennial propensity to outperform their stats, but you tell me who would normally win a game when Team A beats Team B 23-11 in first downs at 5.3-3.6 in yards per play. As New England demonstrated in typical Patriots fashion today, a +3 turnover differential and a special teams touchdown will make up for a sizable YPP shortcoming. With regard to Buffalo, i.e. Team A in the above scenario, turnovers come with the territory when Josh Allen is your quarterback (keep an eye on his progression through concussion protocol). But that level of statistical domination over a team of New England's caliber warrants our attention. To hold Tom Brady to a sub-50% completion mark and less than 4 yards per attempt, without a touchdown and with an interception, validates the Bills' defense as being the real deal. And it makes them a team to at least consider looking toward on the betting board moving forward. If not ATS, Buffalo game totals and opponent team totals to the Under will be going under the microscope shall the market leave any room for opportunity.

In another outcome that doesn't tell the whole story, Jacksonville escaped with the win in Denver in a game that was eerily similar down the stretch to Chicago's Week 2 win at Mile High. Today the Broncos won by almost a full yard per play, with their 0.9 YPP edge generally indicative of a 4.5-point scoreboard advantage, but they lost the turnover battle and ultimately the game. After the Chargers' injury report got even longer today - and it was longer than a CVS receipt before Melvin Ingram, Denzel Perryman, Dontrelle Inman and Sean Culkin went down in Miami - Denver may well be worth a look at the Chargers in Week 5 should the Bolts' MASH unit not show significant progress in the coming days.

While the outcomes in Buffalo and Denver weren't too surprising but arguably were misleading, in Baltimore and Indianapolis we saw outcomes that were surprising but not as misleading as one might imagine without digging into the box score.

The Browns benefited from a +2 turnover differential against the Ravens but didn't even need that advantage to win going away in Baltimore, with Cleveland walloping the heavily favored Ravens 8.7-5.9 in yards per play.

The Raiders were another road underdog to win outright with the benefit of the turnover edge yet not the need for it, riding an edge of almost a full yard per play to knock off the Colts.

These numbers make the case that Cleveland and Oakland could be better than we'd given them credit for prior to today, whereas the Ravens might not be as invincible as they looked after a 2-0 start and a Week 3 back door cover in Kansas City, and the Colts might not be a lock to win the division without Luck after all.

Lastly, from the "how much would you have bet if..." files in honor of Dave and his aptitude for impeccable bankroll management, let's look at Minnesota-Chicago. How much would you have bet on the Vikings to cover their leg of a 6-point teaser, which had Vikings +8.5 available earlier in the week, if you knew that:

- Roquan Smith would be a surprise game day inactive for the Bears;

- Mitch Trubisky would go down on Chicago's opening drive and not return, giving way to Chase Daniel; and

- Only 22 points would be scored in the game?

Minnesota ultimately made it interesting, coming up a failed 2-point conversion short of covering the +8.5, but the Vikings' failure to cover their leg was no fluke. When you can't muster 4 yards per play on offense, a 16-0 deficit can be too much to overcome.

Football is full of vagaries, as well noted by forum contributor SportsHec8 in last week's thread following a wild Thursday Night game in Green Bay and as demonstrated again today in Chicago. So as we roll up the sleeves and get to work on Week 5, let's use what we saw in Week 4 as a reminder that anything can and often will happen in the NFL. Success in this endeavor comes via the disciplined accumulation of small edges over time - nothing more and nothing less.

[Matt Landes]

As an update to the point about possibly looking toward Denver this week, Bradley Chubb’s season-ending injury throws a wrench into that equation. The Chargers appear to be the benefiting party of a significant injury for a change, and the loss of Chubb is a big blow to a Broncos pass rush that was finally starting to break through.

[Matt Landes]

2-MINUTE DRILL

Reading the 2-Minute Drill is often more than a 2-minute endeavor, but with today being Dave's favorite baseball day of the year and some of us having playoff baseball to get to, the goal will be to keep this one short and sweet.

​NEW ORLEANS -3 VS. TAMPA BAY

There's nuance to every handicap, but sometimes the simpler things prevail. It's become difficult to see past that in this matchup. Considering the Saints' strong HFA, with New Orleans -3 widely available at -105 and some even money floating out there, the market is now saying the Bucs are the clearly better team. Even with with Teddy Bridgewater at QB for the Saints, that's a tough sell.

Perhaps no team has taken more influential money this week than Tampa Bay so I'm treading lightly here, but at a certain point "numbers not teams" comes into play and this number stands out as a buy price for the Saints.

OAKLAND TEAM TOTAL UNDER 17

The hook would be nice with such a key number, as is scarcely available in the market for those with a lot of outs, but 17 -115 is the prevailing price point and still worth a "go," albeit a 4 on the 4-5-6 Malinsky scale.

While defense typically regresses from year to year, the Bears' unit looks about as good as ever in its current form and checks in at #3 overall in DVOA, sixth against the pass and third against the run.

And for Oakland's bottom-10 offense according to DVOA, this marks the third straight game away from home in a "no rest for the weary" setting across the globe.

Points are likely to be at a premium in Tottenham, particularly for the Silver and Black.

PICK OF THE WEEK: MINNESOTA -5 AT GIANTS

Daniel Jones has sparked a wave of euphoria in leading the Giants to victory in each of his first to starts, but after throwing two INTs to a bottom-5 Washington pass defense last week this stands to be his biggest test yet against a top-10 Vikings defense that gets two weeks of game film on Jones.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota couldn't have looked much worse in Chicago last week. But a lot of teams can say that after playing the Bears, and a subpar Giants defense stands to be much more forgiving. It's also a bit of a free roll on the Vikings' offense, as if they finally get Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen more involved via the passing game it stands to benefit them, and if they stick to their guns with their outside zone run scheme there are matchups to exploit on the ground against a vulnerable Giants LB corps.

In a sell high vs. buy low matchup, Sunday should prove that there's plenty of value to be had on the Vikings.

"COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES" - BEER OF THE WEEK



Beer: Happy Hawk
Brewery: Horus Aged Ales (Oceanside, CA)
Style: Imperial Stout
ABV: 13%

I had every intention of putting "stout season" on hold after featuring a stout for the second week in a row last week. But after tasting this beer last weekend, to not feature it while readers in Southern California still might have a chance to get it would be an injustice.

Brewed exclusively for Disneyland by a brewery from my hometown, Happy Hawk is bursting with hazelnuts and balanced out by notes of chocolate and coffee. With a decadent body, the thick mouthfeel helps it go down incredibly smoothly.

If you find yourself at Disneyland any time soon, make your way to the downstairs bar at the Lamplight Lounge in California adventure and see if you can snag a pour. It's a beer befitting of the view, and it's a best bet to make the Happiest Place on Earth even happier.

Rating: 4.5 out of 5

[Chi_archie]

get some

[Hendrixfan]

Matt, I want to thank you for doing this and I hope you don't get discouraged by the lack of responses and give up. I'm even more guilty than most, I check the thread multiple times every week, but rarely respond myself, mostly because my handicapping is mostly by feel and I'd be very disappointed for someone else to lose by following me. I bet mostly dogs, and when you do that, you end up with some really ugly losses.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Good stuff love the write ups

[Matt Landes]

Matt, I want to thank you for doing this and I hope you don't get discouraged by the lack of responses and give up. I'm even more guilty than most, I check the thread multiple times every week, but rarely respond myself, mostly because my handicapping is mostly by feel and I'd be very disappointed for someone else to lose by following me. I bet mostly dogs, and when you do that, you end up with some really ugly losses.

Thank you. Selfishly the writing is a good exercise for my own betting process, so I plan to keep it going. A bit less selfishly, I like to think it helps to keep the Point Blank Community connected and that's the ultimate goal.

In terms of responses, some upgrades to the site's overall user experience have had an impact on visibility for our weekly thread, so I'll continue to experiment with possibilities to make it as discoverable as possible. To that end, after evaluating a five-week experiment in the "Players Talk" forum, I think the best way to make our weekly threads easy to find and to maximize engagement will be to return to SBR's Point Blank forum so we can use that as our one-stop shop.

The Week 6 thread will be live there a little later this evening, and if anyone wants to find future threads easily, I recommend bookmarking the PB forum link.

[Money23]

Nice work! 💪🏼

[Matt Landes]

And as the fourth quarter unfolds in what's been a perplexing evening thus far in Kansas City, the NFL Week 6/CFB Week 7 thread is now live here.