[Razz]

Just one for now. I'm not sure what this line will do, so I figured why not put it out when it's under 3.

5* Cowboys -2.5 -115

[begolf25]

I thought you didn't like to fade people Razz?

[Razz]

C'mon begolf, you know I wouldn't do that. I had this game pinpointed from the time it appeared the Chiefs were going to beat the Broncos.

Here is a summary of everything I am playing in the NFL this weekend - I will edit in the record later, as I still haven't gone about adding in last week's games:

Sides

5* Cowboys -2.5 -115 vs. Chiefs
2* Chargers -13 vs. Dolphins
2* Raiders -2.5 @ Jets
2* Packers -5.5 vs. Lions
? Jags + vs. Colts
? 49ers + @ Seahawks
? Bears + @ Steelers

Totals

4* TB/Carolina Under 37
2* NYG/Philly Under 37.5
2* NE/Buffalo Under 37
2* Chicago/Pittsburgh Under 31
2* Houston/Tennessee Over 44
2* Baltimore/Denver Under 40

[GOD IM GOOD BB]

Razz this is my first posted message and I'm a little baffled by the Jags pic. Any particular reason why you like the back up in Jacksonville. Also I really dont understand why you think the Jags have more to play for then the Colts. All the Colts have done is locked up a playoff spot. I'm sure with homefield advantage at stake Dungy won't be resting any players this week. Plus,with the added drama of being considered the best team ever if they go undefeated,I dont see them laying down to a Jags squad that has trouble scoring. Any advice?

[Razz]

Razz this is my first posted message and I'm a little baffled by the Jags pic. Any particular reason why you like the back up in Jacksonville. Also I really dont understand why you think the Jags have more to play for then the Colts. All the Colts have done is locked up a playoff spot. I'm sure with homefield advantage at stake Dungy won't be resting any players this week. Plus,with the added drama of being considered the best team ever if they go undefeated, I dont see them laying down to a Jags squad that has trouble scoring. Any advice?

First off, let me say welcome to the forum, and I always appreciate feedback. I can understand everyone's desire to bet on the Colts this week, and every week for that matter. I wouldn't fault anyone for betting on the Colts this week (They are 6-0 ATS on the road), but I am pretty convinced the Jags need the win more.
As difficult as the Colts' remaining schedule is, they aren't going to lose three games, which would be required for the Colts not to have homefield throughout. Also, in my opinion there is a reason five teams have gone 12-0, and then failed in their closing games. They get to the point of being overconfident, and losing the requisite focus to go on the road and beat a team with more to play for. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have to win at least two of their last four games, if not three.
Most importantly, I'm not sure the Colts are as good as everyone thinks. Their schedule has been absolutely horrendous, with their only impressive road wins at New England - who was injured up and down the roster at the time - and Cincinatti - who can't stop anybody. Both of those teams put up a lot of points on what I feel is a highly overrated Colts defense. Also, as much as I like Leftwich, he is not that much of an improvement over Garrard.
With all that said, I'm not going to go crazy betting on the Jags this weekend. There is still a ? by the play because I don't know how many units - 3 would be the absolute max, and more importantly, I want the line to rise.

As far as being the best team ever, it would be nearly impossible for anyone to surpass the 1985 Bears in my opinion.

[imgv94]

I totally agree with you razz about the Colts..They are overrated.There defense
is nothing to brag about-look how there defense looked in the games Vs
the Rams&Bengals. And If there's already talk about this team being the best
team ever its foolish talk. The 90's Cowboys&49ers would beat this Colts team
anyday anywhere!! The Rams team with Warner,Faulk,etc is better than this
colt team. all those teams would go 16-0 with the schedule and good breaks
the colts have received this season.

[Razz]

I hope most of you realize this line would have been 5-6 two weeks ago, and the disparate results of the past couple weeks (on the scoreboard, not the total yardage) give us tremendous line value.
There is no general situation where I would like to fade a team more than off a hard-fought divisional win. Two other factors make this particular game even more appealing - the Cowboys coming off back-to-back losses - both of which saw them outplay their opponent, and the Chiefs inability to play well on the road, particularly turf.
Chiefs RB Johnson has been amazing since filling in for the injured Priest Holmes. But, I had an epiphany while watching the 4th quarter of the Chief game last week. On a critical third and 1 late in the game, the Chiefs handed the ball to somebody named Dee Brown - he was summarily stuffed. The only Dee Brown's I was aware of are basketball players. All this proves to me is that Johnson has become worn down since becoming the featured back, and he will have virtually no success against a fantastic Cowboys run defense.
Meanwhile the Cowboys have two above-average running backs, and are facing a very mediocre KC rush defense. If the Chiefs struggle stopping the run, Bledsoe will pick their secondary apart. While he sometimes makes mistakes when dealing with pressure, he has always been deadly when given time and capable receivers.
Parcells will have his team ready to avoid blowing an important game after the last two weeks have been difficult losses.
Cowboys 34, Chiefs 17

[GOD IM GOOD BB]

Good luck with the Jags. I'll take my chances elsewhere

Colts 27 Jags 13

[Razz]

Here is what I ended up going with today:

Sides

5* Cowboys -2.5 -115 vs. Chiefs
3* Jags +9 vs. Colts
2* Chargers -13 vs. Dolphins
2* Raiders -2.5 @ Jets
2* Packers -5.5 vs. Lions
2* Eagles +9.5 vs. Giants
1* 49ers +16.5 @ Seahawks

Totals

4* TB/Carolina Under 37
2* NYG/Philly Under 37.5
2* NE/Buffalo Under 37
2* Chicago/Pittsburgh Under 31
2* Houston/Tennessee Over 44
2* Baltimore/Denver Under 40