[Matt Landes]

JT Daniels might not be a top-two QB on his own team. Jim Harbaugh might be in deeper trouble than we thought. Notre Dame might not be a pushover against bona fide competition, after all. And in the NFL: So. Many. Flags.

It was a weekend full of intriguing developments across the CFB and NFL landscapes. In order to capitalize on the developments, it's time to revisit "the week that was" in order to position ourselves for success for the weeks to come....

Starting things off with a Friday night to remember for USC and Matt Fink under the lights at the Coliseum, it's fair to wonder if Week 1 starter JT Daniels isn't among the two best QBs on the Trojans' roster. After USC lost Daniels in the season opener and true freshman phenom Kedon Slovis to injury on the second snap from scrimmage on Friday, third-stringer Fink didn't blink when forced into action, producing to the tune of more than 350 passing yards while completing 70% of his passes and averaging an eye-opening 11.7 yards per attempt in a victory over 10th-ranked Utah.

The upset win puts a bit of a chill on Clay Helton's hot seat. Helton deserves credit for recruiting and developing outstanding depth at the most important position on the field, but our limited glimpses of Slovis and Fink can't help but call into question Helton's ability to evaluate QBs in camp. This isn't new for Helton, who named Max Browne the starter over Sam Darnold to start the 2016 season.

For now it's an amalgamation of credit and questions for Helton, and an inspiring breakout for Fink. There may also be some question as to who belongs under center for the Trojans when they take on Washington, should Slovis prove fit to return to the field for Saturday's showdown in Seattle.

While Helton's seat isn't quite as hot this week, Jim Harbaugh's got a whole lot hotter after Michigan sleepwalked through a 35-14 loss at Wisconsin. Wolverines fans could've taken some solace in Michigan's Week 2 nail biter over Army by noting that Oklahoma survived a similar scare last season and wound up in the Playoff, but Saturday's loss doesn't leave as much silver lining material. It'll be worth watching and learning to see how the Wolverines rebound from about as demoralizing a start to the season as a 2-1 record would allow for.

Not all losses are equally demoralizing - for Exhibit A from this weekend, look to Notre Dame's defeat at Georgia. The Irish closed as underdogs of more than 2 TDs and could've won outright by finding the end zone on their final drive. By proving they can hang with anybody, anywhere, Notre Dame players have reason to hold their heads high. But be careful when it comes to upgrading the Irish or downgrading the Bulldogs too much - Georgia won the YPP battle by a full yard both on through the air and on the ground.

Shifting gears to the NFL, the refs may have just set a new record for face time across one slate of games thanks to another litany of flags in what's threatening to become the Year of Penalties. But there were some flag-free plays sprinkled in, and we take away from it what we can....

Baltimore-Kansas City was widely billed as the Game of the Week and largely delivered on the promise. While the books got middled on the ATS outcome with the game landing on 5 after the Chiefs were favored by as much as 7 earlier in the week and as low as 4 at post, the underlying metrics were more decisive in favor of Kansas City as shown by the Chiefs' monster YPP edge of 7.9 to 5.8.

We might be able to use this to our advantage next week when Kansas City heads to Detroit. In today's upset win over the Eagles, the Lions were the beneficiaries of a kickoff returned for a TD, a +2 turnover differential, and seven drops by Philadelphia. After a second straight Sunday seeing Detroit get a very fortunate win, the Lions come into Week 4 with one of the more fraudulent undefeated records in recent memory. If the market provides the opportunity to take Kansas City laying less than a TD, that opportunity is a favorite to be accepted.

In another matchup in the Midwest, Indianapolis is high on the Week 4 shopping list at the same buy price of anything less than a TD. Power ratings alone call for the Colts to be favored by at least the full 7, and situationally Indianapolis should benefit by hosting a second straight home game against an Oakland team playing its second straight road game.

The picture isn't quite as clear when it comes to what to do with Pittsburgh, making the Steelers worthy of further investigation. Although they covered today in Mason Rudolph's first start at QB, to lose outright despite a +3 TO differential paints an ominous portrait. Across the Sports Mediaverse there's been lots of optimism about Rudolph, and the optimism may be warranted long term, but it's looking as if the first-round selection Pittsburgh shipped to Miami for Minkah Fitzpatrick might be a pretty high draft pick after all. Most games won't include 76-yard TD passes, with JuJu Smith-Schuster doing the bulk of the work after the catch, to inflate Rudlolph's YPA to a still pedestrian 5.5 YPA. A Monday Night home game against the lowly Bengals has Week 4 looking like a golden opportunity for the Black and Gold to break into the Win column. With a +3 TO differential unlikely to repeat itself, it may take some improvement from Rudolph & Co. over the next week in order for the Steelers to get there.

With the ball in motion on a new week, let's keep it rolling and see what edges we can uncover for the portfolio....

[SportsHec8]

week 4 plays for me
https://twitter.com/SH8Model/status/1176014633896828928?s=20

[Matt Landes]

Looks like we’ll both be rooting for another Under in Buffalo.

Now let’s see if the market abides with just a little more value on the Colts or Chiefs...

[SportsHec8]

I think you nailed it with Indy and KC btw. I have never seen an offense like KC. It's still too early to apply a full weight to schedule adjusted stats but considering they played at JAX and Balt, the chiefs stats are actually understated, which is scary!

I took two plays for tonight, that will largely be unpopular:
.8u under 5.5 sacks -115
1u under 10.5 punts -115

There is definitely an over lean in my numbers. Think we dont hear a peep about mitch t not being an nfl qb after this week.

[SportsHec8]

detroit is indeed a fraudulent unbeaten team.

BUUT it is important to note that Philly only won the box score by a little, 5.4 YPP to 4.8. Detroit also missed a FG which is like a turnover so it was +1 and a kick return (still a lot).

I continue to think Wentz and his head coach are woefully overrated. The real brains left to Indy....

[SportsHec8]

Model's scores which still include a large percentage of last year's data/preseason expectations (parentheses has scores just based on this year's opponent adjusted stats)
Phi 19 - GB 24 (15-24)
Car 23 - Hou 21 (22-17)
Cle 19 - Bal 32 (19-34)
LAC 34 - Mia 17 (39-14)
Oak 20 - Indy 28 (18-29)
KC 33 - Det 24 (42-23)
NEP 24 - Buff 14 (22-9)
Ten 22 - Atl 21 (24-16)
TB 18 - LAR 28 (13-22)
Sea 29 - AZ 17 (29-17)
Jax 19 - Den 20 (20-20)
Dal 29 - NO 20 (33-21)
Cin 22 - Pit 25 (27-22)

Left off the Chi and Wash games

[SportsHec8]

added .8u balt -5.5

[Matt Landes]

detroit is indeed a fraudulent unbeaten team.

BUUT it is important to note that Philly only won the box score by a little, 5.4 YPP to 4.8. Detroit also missed a FG which is like a turnover so it was +1 and a kick return (still a lot).

I continue to think Wentz and his head coach are woefully overrated. The real brains left to Indy....

Fair point about the missed FG for Detroit. Issues at WR were fully on the table for Philadelphia given the known injury issues, but 7 drops is really something. That the Eagles still won YPP by more than half a yard, with a 0.6 YPP edge typically indicative of a 3-point win, has me thinking any semblance of hands for the pass catchers this week will have them in the mix Thursday in Green Bay.

As far as idea that Reich was a bigger loss for Philadelphia than the market is accounting for, it does appear to be gaining more credibility by the week....

[Matt Landes]

Looks like we’ll both be rooting for another Under in Buffalo.

Now let’s see if the market abides with just a little more value on the Colts or Chiefs...

And with Kansas City now showing at -6 flat, the Chiefs are in pocket.

[Matt Landes]

2-MINUTE DRILL

Thursday Night Football can mean a short week not only for teams, but also for bettors. While TNF has been better off unwatched the past couple weeks, Eagles-Packers brings plenty of intrigue. And with opportunity knocking at Lambeau Field, we get this show on the road a little early for Week 4....

PHILADELPHIA +4.5 AT GREEN BAY

This two-point adjustment from the lookahead line seems like an overreaction, especially considering it crosses through 3 and 4.

The Eagles' home loss to the Lions was one of the more misleading finals of the week, with Detroit needing the benefit of a kickoff return for a TD, a +2 TO differential, and seven dropped passes by Philadelphia in order to narrowly escape with the win. A strong case can be made that the Eagles are two final-drive drops in the last two weeks from being 3-0. Instead, at 1-2, they're getting sold short based on this line.

Case in point: the Packers closed -7, with reduced vig at the leading offshore bookmakers, at home against Denver this past Sunday. So at 4.5, this line implies the Eagles are less than a field goal better than the Broncos. Even in Philadelphia's current injury-riddled state, if the Eagles and Broncos were to square off on a neutral field right now, the line would belong north of 3 and not by a minuscule margin.

Green Bay, on the other hand, appears to be getting propped up by the market. Their 3-0 straight-up and ATS record is impressive, but it took a +3 TO differential last week to cover a game that easily could've been a second straight non-cover. A little turnover regression stands to go a long way at Lambeau. Factor in that the Packers' defense was on the field for 73 snaps on Sunday, compared to 60 snaps for Philadelphia's defense, and Green Bay has a lot to bounce back from in little time.

And with Matt LaFleur in for a major challenge as a first-year head coach preparing for his first short week at the helm, it should be no surprise if Philadelphia is in the mix for the outright win come the final moments on Thursday.

​KANSAS CITY -6.5 AT DETROIT

If you didn't get this number at -6 before a Tuesday evening surge on the Chiefs, it's not too late (yet) to grab some value. Conventional wisdom may say not to lay this kind of road chalk, but conventional wisdom could also struggle to properly assess these teams.

Not only are the Chiefs 3-0, but aside from the infallible Patriots they're a clear cut above the rest of the league. They're #1 in the NFL in yards per play on offense, with only Dallas and Baltimore coming within a full yard of their YPP prowess. They also top the Football Outsiders offensive charts for DAVE, the stat FO is using for a more accurate look at how well we can expect teams to play the rest of the season prior to adjusting for opposition after Week 4. And as mentioned in the thread kickoff post, they dominated the aforementioned Ravens to a much greater degree than the 5-point final margin would indicate, with Kansas City's 7.9-5.8 YPP advantage more indicative of a double-digit thumping.

The Lions may come in with an undefeated record of their own, but as also outlined in the thread kickoff, their record is suspect. They caught the previously noted breaks to squeak by with a win in Philadelphia in Week 3. They were similarly fortunate to emerge victorious over the Chargers in Week 2. Simply put, their record stands out as the most fraudulent unblemished mark remaining - if you don't count a tie to Arizona as a blemish.

6.5 points can sound like a lot, but it's a relatively shorter number factoring in that, at 53.5, this game features the highest total on the board by a full four points at press time. Anything less than KC by a TD seems short as the clock starts ticking a little louder for Matt Patricia and Detroit to get exposed.

PICK OF THE WEEK: TEASER - MINNESOTA +8.5 AT CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS +8.5 VS. DALLAS

The Vikings fit the classic basic strategy teaser mold to a T. In taking them up through 3 and 7 we get the better team, against a familiar division opponent, in what's projected to be the lowest-scoring game of the week with a total of just 38.5 that increases the relative value of each point in the teaser and in decreases the expected variance. It's no surprise if Minnesota wins outright in Chicago and the cushion of 8.5 points, while gladly accepted, may well not be needed.

In the second leg, that the Cowboys are a clear road favorite at the Superdome on SNF is indicative of both a lot of pro-Dallas sentiment and anti-New Orleans sentiment in the marketplace. The pro-Dallas sentiment makes sense, and while the Saints are clearly a significant downgrade without Drew Brees, the anti-New Orleans sentiment seems to have gone too far. Yes, it was a misleading final score for the Saints last Sunday in Seattle. And yes, it's worth noting that the Seahawks owned the Saints by winning the YPP battle by a yard and a half. But it's also worth digging for the context behind the YPP.

After Alvin Kamara found the end zone with 4:19 remaining to put the Saints up by 19 points there was no reason for YPP not to favor Seattle significantly for the rest of the game, and that's what happened. New Orleans had one more drive that went 3 plays for 9 yards, with the Saints' primary objective to bleed clock. Seattle's last two drives, which largely epitomized garbage time, covered 157 yards over 20 plays including a meaningless TD on an untimed down to end the game. Take away these drives for at least a little more semblance of a neutral game script and the Seahawks' YPP advantage is shaved by half a yard in just 4+ minutes of non-competitive game time.

To be clear, New Orleans wasn't great in Week 3 and almost certainly won't get a repeat performance of 3 D/ST TDs in Week 4 against Dallas. They'll probably lose the YPP battle again. If Minnesota covers earlier in the day then I'll look to play back 20% of the wager amount on the Cowboys for a possible middle, with a Dallas win by 3 to 8 points cashing both tickets. But the Saints don't have to play above their level in order to keep it within a possession at home on Sunday Night, with Sean Payton on their side and Jason Garrett on the other side.

"COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES" - BEER OF THE WEEK


Photo: @abelgiansbeerdiary (Instagram)

Beer: Chocolate & Blueberry Pot De Crčme
Brewery: Hubbard's Cave (Niles, IL)
Style: Imperial Stout
ABV: 12%

Going with back-to-back stouts in Weeks 3-4 may be jumping the gun on "stout season," but now that it's officially fall we're at least a little closer to the peak "winter warmer" months. Not that you need to be craving a winter warmer to enjoy this week's selection....

Chocolate & Blueberry Pot De Crčme pours an opaque black with a frothy tan head. Bursting with notes of its namesake chocolate and blueberry, plus a dash of vanilla for good measure, a creamy mouthfeel keeps it about as smooth as can be given the ABV.

When tasting this beer I could't help but think of it as a perfect pairing candidate with blueberry pancakes, and recalling Dave's affinity for food and beer pairings it would be an overwhelming favorite for him to agree. Bonus points to any Chicago fans who pull off this pairing involving a local beer for their Bears-Vikings viewing - and even if you don't have a meal to enjoy it with, you could do far worse than sipping on a can on fall's first football Sunday.

Rating: 4.5 out of 5

[sallymott]

In the month of September, the Packers have posted a 14-0-1 straight up record at the not-so-frozen-tundra since 2014. Not quite as good against the spread, but 12-2-1 (86%) ...

Since 2003, Non-Division HF on TNF (Packers) are 36-14 (72%) ATS....

as always,

good luck

[Matt Landes]

Those are some pretty high-percentage trends and I saw Philadelphia as a 60/40 proposition at best when they could be had at +4.5, so it wouldn't be a big surprise to see those trend lines continue tonight.

But, to play devil's advocate:

For the GB trend, is there anything in particular about the month of September? What would be different if this game were played on Oct. 3 instead of Sept. 26?

Is there an underlying reason for the trend to begin in 2014?

Minnesota and Denver were both firmly in the mix in the last two weeks. A small sample size of 12-2-1 could easily be 10-4-1, and 0-2 this season.

All the qualifiers aside, with a first-year HC how much weight should we give to GB's home results in the month of September since 2014?

For the TNF trend, is there an underlying reason to use 2003 as the starting point?

Whatever the outcome tonight, hopefully we'll observe keenly enough to take away some insight that can be used to accumulate edges for the future of the portfolio.

[sallymott]

Those are some pretty high-percentage trends and I saw Philadelphia as a 60/40 proposition at best when they could be had at +4.5, so it wouldn't be a big surprise to see those trend lines continue tonight.

But, to play devil's advocate:

For the GB trend, is there anything in particular about the month of September? What would be different if this game were played on Oct. 3 instead of Sept. 26?

Is there an underlying reason for the trend to begin in 2014?

Minnesota and Denver were both firmly in the mix in the last two weeks. A small sample size of 12-2-1 could easily be 10-4-1, and 0-2 this season.

All the qualifiers aside, with a first-year HC how much weight should we give to GB's home results in the month of September since 2014?

For the TNF trend, is there an underlying reason to use 2003 as the starting point?

Whatever the outcome tonight, hopefully we'll observe keenly enough to take away some insight that can be used to accumulate edges for the future of the portfolio.

i am not sure whether or not your questions were rhetorical or not but if not:

i would think september was used based on the weather in Wisconsin

i believe the trends go back as far enough to get a good sample size as well as not to go too far back as to even out the trend

as far as 2003 .......i think the same idea as 2014 applies...go far back enough to get a good sample size without going too far that the trend starts to even out...

i am night saying to play GB solely based on these or any trends...do your home work using these trends as a data point
thanks
and as always.....
good luck

[SportsHec8]

last night was a great reminder of the vagaries of this sport Dave always discussed!I had 5x my average largest bet on whether GB would get in from inside the 5 on two separate drives.

Yeah i was a big favorite to hit the bet but when the VAGARIES happened and i lost, it was absolutely crushing.

My largest nfl loss in years.

The correct mathematical answer is that i should want to be in that position again because i was such a big favorite. But the ball is pointy as hell and i've done best when my units are more controlled.

[Matt Landes]

last night was a great reminder of the vagaries of this sport Dave always discussed!I had 5x my average largest bet on whether GB would get in from inside the 5 on two separate drives.

Yeah i was a big favorite to hit the bet but when the VAGARIES happened and i lost, it was absolutely crushing.

My largest nfl loss in years.

The correct mathematical answer is that i should want to be in that position again because i was such a big favorite. But the ball is pointy as hell and i've done best when my units are more controlled.

"How much would you have bet if..." was one of Dave's finest teachings. While it sometimes has us wishing we'd bet more on an "easy" winner, it spares some extreme losses to follow the "4-5-6" bankroll model in which a multiple of 5 is the standard unit; if it's not worth investing 0.8 unit then the edge might not be big enough to warrant betting at all; and due to the vagaries involved, no single bet should be more than 1.5x the amount of another bet based on the same unit size. Not as well worded as Dave would put it, but hope it helps to get the point across.

Last night's game was the epitome of the pendulum swinging toward equilibrium for both teams after a recent series of good breaks for the Packers and bad breaks for the Eagles. Even though Philadelphia beat the closing line of +3.5 by more than 10 points it was a fairly fortuitous cover, and a very fortuitous outright win. Losing YPP by a full yard won't win you many games, but going +2 in TOs not including a GB failure to score from first and goal at the 1 can mask some flaws. As can getting more TDs than your opponent when you reach the red zone 4 times to their 7.

While the Eagles "exceeded expectations" by double digits, I think their power rating deserves a half-point bump at most and would lean toward no upgrade, unless a larger upgrade is rooted in the return of some injured players and continued health improvement for Alshon Jeffery. Similarly, don't see any reason to downgrade GB unless Davante Adams's turf toe injury pushes them a slight tick down.

Betting outcomes aside, it was a fun change of pace to have an entertaining TNF game between two good teams.

[SportsHec8]

my box scores for the week.

by far the worst CLV my plays have had all season. Week 4 is always scary.

https://twitter.com/SH8Model/status/1178132799301148673?s=20

[Matt Landes]

my box scores for the week.

by far the worst CLV my plays have had all season. Week 4 is always scary.

https://twitter.com/SH8Model/status/1178132799301148673?s=20

Thanks for sharing. At least CLV seems to be working in our favor on the NE-BUF total. Looks like we’ll be “rooting for the clock....”

[SportsHec8]

Over half my action so far this year has been on live bets. think like the euro market has showed us, that's where the true value is. here's my prescription

1) Under in Houston if Carolina gets lead
2) Balt and over if Balt takes lead. UNDER if cle takes lead
3) Over if Giants take lead
4) Chargers if Mia takes lead
5) Colts if Colts take lead
6) KC and Over if Detroit takes lead
7) NEP and under if NEP takes lead. Under if Buff takes lead
8) Atl and under if Atl takes lead
9) Lar if TB takes lead
10) Sea if Sea takes lead. Sea and Under if AZ takes lead
11) Min and under if Min takes lead. Chi and under if Chi takes lead (blowouts dont count)
12) Jax and under if Jax takes lead. Den and Under if Den takes lead
13) Dal if dal takes lead. Dal and over if NOS takes lead

[jakedittler]

Do we feel like Atl is this bad, and will continue to. Inplay/halftime. Is 13. I think Atl breaks loose a little here.

[Matt Landes]

Do we feel like Atl is this bad, and will continue to. Inplay/halftime. Is 13. I think Atl breaks loose a little here.

-1 in TOs calls for some positive regression for Atlanta, but losing YPP 7.3 to 4.5 is an ominous sign. The Falcons have been tough to get a read on.

[jakedittler]

Totally agree. Was looking for some more sets of eyes.

[Matt Landes]

For those looking to get the ball rolling on the coming week, the NFL Week 5/CFB Week 6 thread is now live here.