The first weekend of the 2019 NFL season brought plenty of excitement, but there's still more action to look forward to Monday night. We're here with a betting preview for both games, starting with the Houston Texans visiting the New Orleans Saints and followed by the Denver Broncos taking on the Oakland Raiders in Oakland.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian and Fantasy's Mike Clay combine to offer their best bets for Monday's doubleheader.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Sept 8.
Clay:Patrick Mahomes may have overshadowed Watson last season, but Watson was still pretty darn good. Watson averaged a terrific 8.2 yards per pass attempt and reached 271 passing yards in six games. Six may not seem very high, but his yardage totals in losses were 176 yards (a Week 1 dud), 310, 385, 267 and 339. That's notable because the Texans are road underdogs against a very good Saints team in Week 1. The Saints allowed the third-most passing yards last season, while also ranking top-11 in pass attempts, completions, average depth of target yards per attempt and completion percentage. Expect Watson to be throwing plenty of passes in his 2019 debut. Saints RB Alvin Kamara offensive touchdown (Yes -135)
Clay: Kamara found the end zone 18 times last season, and it wasn't a fluke. New Orleans' lead back racked up 13 carries inside the 5-yard line (fourth-most in the NFL) and his 14.5 total OTD (or expected touchdown total) ranked second. The Texans allowed a league-low five carries inside the 5-yard line last season, as well as only eight rushing touchdowns (25th), but they also allowed a league-high in running back end zone targets (five) and touchdown receptions (six). The -135 juice isn't ideal, but Kamara has a good shot to score every week. Texans +7 (-105)
Johnson: The Saints are just 1-9 ATS in the first two weeks of the season the past five years under Sean Payton. In fact, they are 1-9 straight up over those same games. I don't look for trends to bet on or against, but it's at least worth noting that New Orleans likes to take its time getting its regular-season feet wet. My number in the game is two points lower anyway at Texans +5.0 (I'm more bearish on the Saints than the market and have bet their under 10.5 season wins as well), so I'm happy to take the full seven points on a key number before this potentially hits +6.5. (Note: line moved to Saints -6.5 Sunday.) Over 52.5 (-110)
Kezirian: This has shootout written all over it. Now that he's fully healthy, I expect Watson to resemble the MVP form he demonstrated before his 2017 knee injury. With the recent addition of Laremy Tunsil, the offensive line is vastly improved and Watson should have plenty of opportunity to capitalize on his weapons and compensate for a team lacking a strong rushing attack. The Saints do have a knack for starting poorly in season openers, but the offense should do enough to help this over. Houston's defense is not as strong as it once was. Denver Broncos (-2.5, 42) at Oakland Raiders
Broncos -2.5 (-110)
Fortenbaugh: Forget about the Antonio Brown drama for a moment and instead focus on the significant mismatch that is set to take place in the trenches Monday night. QB Derek Carr was sacked a staggering 51 times last season (third-most in NFL) -- and that was before he lost Pro Bowl offensive guard Kelechi Osemele to free agency and offensive guard Gabe Jackson to injury. With defensive mastermind Vic Fangio orchestrating a Denver pass rush that features Pro Bowler Von Miller and former top-five pick Bradley Chubb (26.5 combined sacks last season), it may be a long day for Carr.
Clay: Lindsay enjoyed an impressive rookie season, which included a healthy 5.4 YPC, but a closer look at his situation suggests he'll fall short of 65 yards in Week 1. Lindsay's strong YPC was boosted greatly by 3.82 yards before contact per attempt (No. 2 in the NFL); he averaged 1.58 yards after contact (14th worst). Predictably, his production dipped late in the season, as he averaged 2.6 YPC in his final three games. Denver has made it clear that second-year RB Royce Freeman will play a larger role this season, which would obviously limit Lindsay's touches. Though Oakland was run on a ton last season, that was primarily due to game flow, whereas Monday's game is expected to be competitive. Expect Lindsay to land closer to 52 yards. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs over 52.5 rush yards
Clay: Especially following the release of Doug Martin, Jacobs is locked in as Oakland's featured rusher this season. His primary competition for touches will be Jalen Richard and third-year reserve DeAndre Washington. The only running back drafted in the first round of April's draft, Jacobs' game is built on an ability to create yards (he broke one tackle for every 6.1 touches at Alabama last season, which was best among rookie backs). Jacobs will face a Denver team that will return a majority of a defensive front that allowed 4.8 YPC while ranking fourth in carries and sixth in rushing yards against last season. Jacobs is a safer bet to end up closer to 74 yards.
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