Is Le'Veon Bell worth a huge contract in 2019 free agency? Why there are better options

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When Le'Veon Bell officially hits the open market on March 13, the ex-Pittsburgh Steelers running back will be one of the most coveted players. But will he be worth it?


Last year, Bell reportedly wanted a deal somewhere in the range of $15 million to $17 million per season -- more than twice the salary-cap hit an average NFL team had at the running back position in 2018 -- with a guaranteed amount of at least $45 million. He didn't get it, and he sat out the 2018 season.


Still, from 2013 to 2017, Bell ranked first among running backs in targets (390), receptions (312) and receiving yards (2,660), and he ranked second at the position in touches (1,541) and scrimmage yards (7,996).


Yet there are many reasons why no teams in their right mind should consider paying him what he's asking for -- and there are two running backs who could give these clubs more bang for their running back salary-cap buck than Bell.
Why Bell's not worth it

The reality is that his production on a per-play basis is nowhere near as remarkable as the totals.



Bell ranked 44th in the league in his rookie season in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures a back's production on rushing plays where he receives quality run blocking. He improved greatly upon his 5.8-yard GBYPA that season by ranking 15th in GBYPA in 2014 (8.8) and fourth in 2015 (9.5), but his production fell off greatly in 2016 (7.5, ranked tied for 31st) and faltered even more in 2017 (6.9, ranked tied for 35th). That last GBYPA mark might be the most troubling, as James Conner was able to top it by more than half of a yard last season (7.6).


Bell also has touted himself in the past as being the Steelers' No. 2 receiver behind Antonio Brown, which was true from a reception volume perspective. His per-play pass-catching numbers, however, don't stand out. In his five pro seasons, Bell ranked ninth among running backs in yards per reception (8.5), 25th in drop percentage (5.1 percent), 22nd in receptions per route run (17.0 percent), 34th in targets per route run (21.3 percent) and tied for 11th in reception percentage (80.0).


The Steelers found Bell's pass-catching totals to be replicable, as their running backs last season posted equal or better numbers in yards per reception (8.6), targets per route run (22.4 percent), receptions per route run (17.9 percent) and reception percentage (80.0) on 110 targets, which was higher than Bell's per-season target average of 78 percent.


In short, an inordinate amount of Bell's value stems from his ability to post high volumes of carries and receptions. That skill set does have considerable usefulness, but NFL history shows that it isn't a trait that ages well.


Sure, skipping the 2018 season helped save some tread on the tires, but Bell had 406 touches in 2017 and has more than 1,500 on his career. Per Pro Football Reference, 27 total players have tallied 400-plus touches in a season. Of those players, only nine posted 400-plus touches in more than one season, and just six achieved this mark in their age-27 season or later. Bell turned 27 on Feb. 18.


It can be argued that teams aren't going to sign Bell with the expectation that he will tally more seasons of 400-plus touches. But those clubs should be aware that on average, these 27 backs averaged only 3.3 more seasons with as many as 250 or more touches in their careers following their first 400-touch season. What's worse, these backs on average posted their last season of 250 or more touches in their age-29 campaign. The clock is ticking for the three-time Pro Bowler.


When all of that is added to the fact that Bell has played in only 62 of 80 possible NFL games and had three of his five pro seasons end with an injury, it is clear why the Steelers were reportedly willing to guarantee only $17 million of a five-year, $70 million offer they made to Bell. Pittsburgh was hedging its salary-cap bet against the historical trends that strongly suggest Bell will be an impact player for maybe only two or three more years, at the most.
Cheaper alternatives

Using this two-to three-year window, two free-agent running backs can provide teams with a greater return on salary-cap investment than Bell.



Tevin Coleman: Coleman got overlooked in an Atlanta Falconsoffense that included Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman, but during the span of the 2016 and 2017 seasons, he ranked 23rd among running backs in touches (332), 20th in scrimmage yards (1,868), 14th in receiving yards (720) and tied for 11th in touchdowns (19). He also has posted strong GBYPA totals, with an 8.7 mark in 2016, an 8.9 total in 2017 and a career-best 9.5 GBYPA in 2018.


Coleman was a "bell cow" in college, as he racked up 295 touches in his junior season at Indiana. Given that he has a 6-foot-1, 210-pound frame and will be in his age-26 season in 2019, Coleman could offer the same workload capacity as Bell at a lower cost on a younger frame with less wear and tear.



Mark Ingram: Ingram gets lost as well in a New Orleans Saintsoffense headed by Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. But he did post an 8.2 GBYPA last season and an 8.8 GBYPA in 2017. Ingram has a strong workload history, as he was one of only seven backs to post 1,000 or more touches from the 2014 to 2017 seasons. He is an adept pass-catcher, ranking 11th in running back receptions (211) and 15th in targets (247) since 2013.


There is a concern that Ingram is entering his age-29 season (he will turn 30 in December), but his history suggests that investing in a two-year window for him is a more than reasonable risk.