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Would you hedge this bet?
Futures
Rams to win NFC +635 risking $750 to win $4762
Rams to win SB +1300 risking $750 to win $9750
Thinking about just rolling the dice this weekend. Or would you hedge Saints ML?
Obviously if Rams win this weekend I could risk the winnings on AFC team in SB to guarantee 10k plus.
Thanks!
I would put 1K on NO and at least win most of my original investment back on LAR. GL.
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i would at least ml the saints to cover your bet
I know Jay...it's a tough decision...asking your self and thinking how can I do this? If you happen to roll the dice...I'd be ready to pull the plug on a LIVE BET...If I were in your position and the Rams take the lead by say 7-10...the odds will drop significantly on the Saints...and a good time to make your decision...GOOD LUCK pal what ever you do!Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
Yeah if he wants to roll the dice wait for a live opportunity. Might be worth the stretch. Tough call.I know Jay...it's a tough decision...asking your self and thinking how can I do this? If you happen to roll the dice...I'd be ready to pull the plug on a LIVE BET...If I were in your position and the Rams take the lead by say 7-10...the odds will drop significantly on the Saints...and a good time to make your decision...GOOD LUCK pal what ever you do!
Good advise by Dan as well...looking at Saints ML now...odds are set at -177; doing the calculations you would have to bet exactly $1315 to return $2065 net of $750 and your original bet. You would have invested a total of $1300 now...add $1315 that's $2615...you would be up $2147 right now...hope that answers your question...If I were you take the money or sweat it out...I like Knowing its a winner...next week do the same thing...Rams win... send the same post...GOOD LUCK..
We should be all here to assist fellow members.
Last edited by Festoon; 01-17-19 at 07:09 AM.
I would wait until the last minute though and watch the line...my guess it might drop a bit? maybe -170...save yourself a little cash...goes up lock in!
Tough call. I’m not big on hedging, but I see the Saints winning so my thoughts would be to hedge. Still, if I made the bet and had confidence in the Rams then I may just let it ride. Good luck with whatever you do.
let it ride
Would probably go with this.
if you've had the money locked up for a while, you obviously aren't sweating the money and it won't make or break you
let it ride if you were confident when bets were made if that's still the case
No. I would bet additional on the Rams +
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Thanks for all the advise so far. I liked the Rams a lot more before Cooper Krupp went down. They just haven’t been quite the same since. He made their offense damn near unstoppable an Goff hasn’t been the same either since he’s been gone.
Still think they have a chance though. Have to tell you I was really pumped when philly was up 14-0 last week.
Leaning toward 1k on Saints ML.
So lets say u do and Rams win, then they lose in the superbowl and u hedge an additional 1k in the superbowl going to slice potential winnings in half.
I have a N.O. conference future, took a Rams hedge to cover bet amount.
To me hedging the bet amount is factored in up front.
AT that point if LAR does win the NFC I would lay off hedging in the bowl at least before the game. Might do a live bet for maybe $250-$500 if I can get good odds but like you said would not want to cut potential winnings in half if they lose the big game.
If you hedge anything, just get your initial wager back.
Okay so first of all if it was just the Super Bowl I would say let it ride.
But it’s not... so after giving this a lot of thought your best bet is to take a single bet on Rams +3 and maybe even buy a point to +4.
This “extends your net” so to speak and gives you a chance to win even if you lose.
You feel me?
I really like the saints to win the nfc championship. The have the far superior quarterback and a signicant home field advantage. With that big of a potential payout I would hedge a lot more than 1000 on the saints like maybe a third of you potential payout and then do it again if the rams somehow win this weekend which I believe they will not. Definitely not trashing the bet as I’d love to be in this position and at the end of the day you’ve got to make the move you feel comfortable with. Good luck
"Don't be afraid to win."
This. Last week I had a ton riding on the saints ml in multiple parlays. Did I hedge with philly? No, when they went down 14-0 and were +3.5 live I pounded the shit out of it and won even more.
I hate hedging unless it's an astronomical amount.
bet more on the rams , lot more cash big. gl
Agree with you there...less stressful day
Always 2 key questions to ask yourself when considering hedging:
A. Is the amount at risk or to be won substantial to you?
B. How hard will you be on yourself if you do not hege & come away with nothing?
I think you certainly hedge to get your $750 back. Obviously (I think) 750$ is enough to make you at least consider it...because, we’ll...you’re considering it. Get your original bet back and make those bets free rolls. Use that $750 for Super Bowl props.
Great advise Hman! and my thoughts exactly!!
$750 +/-
can buy a 65" 2160p - Smart - 4K UHD TV
Thats dope$750 +/-
can buy a 65" 2160p - Smart - 4K UHD TV
Don't give away the good odds you bet at.
Only hedge once. If you bet too much for your stomach to start with.
And then never do that again.
What you really need to ask yourself, is do you think the Rams will win this weekend? If you've got serious doubt, then hedge. If you still believe the Rams to be the best team, let it ride.
This week is essentially a 1500 bet at half odds so to hedge out at -170 you profit 819 if the Rams lose. I usually hedge guaranteed money but since 750 is your average stake in this example, profiting 819 doesn't seem like a big win for you. Of course the margins in sports betting are super thin so if you are a grinder maybe you want to take it. I'd probably let this week ride and then hedge superbowl for big cash. Good luck either way.
Thats what I tell myself everytime I have sex
minimum you should bet the amount to get your $750 back so a $1000 is about right
I agree with this. Always hedge to get your original risk amount back.
If you want the true arb value you need to figure both bets into the equation. Think tank this shit
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ByeShea gave Easy-Rider 66 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
