As we roll through the heart of the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 7 of the college football season: Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price. Duke Blue Devils vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-3; O/U 54.5)
12:20 p.m. ET, Saturday (ACC Network) Coughlin: I really like the position and spot here for the Dukies. They already faced a good option attack this year when they opened the season against Army. They are fresh off a bye, which followed their first loss of the season to Virginia Tech. You know you can trust that coach David Cutcliffe worked on some things with the offense; while they got QB Daniel Jones back versus the Hokies, he looked pretty rusty going 23-for-35 for 226 yards with one touchdown and one interception. I pretty much expect Duke to control the game on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and as good as the Yellow Jackets were to us last week, they are giving up over 28 points a game and over 470 yards of offense.
I think the underdog wins the game, so I'll take the points.
ATS pick: Duke +3 Score: Duke 31, Georgia Tech 17 Steele: There is some solid value in this game. Over the past two weeks, Georgia Tech's offense looked unstoppable, putting up 129 points and 1,084 total yards. Their foes were Bowling Green and Louisville, though -- two teams with weak rush defenses that had not faced Paul Johnson's triple-option offense before. The Blue Devils will be a much tougher test.
Duke faces the Georgia Tech option every year and is 4-0 against the spread with three outright upsets over the past four years. David Cutcliffe is 7-1 ATS the past five years versus option teams and held an Army attack that was averaging 343 yards per game rushing to only 168 yards. Army lost to Oklahoma in overtime by seven points, but the Blue Devils beat 3-2 Army by 20 points.
Not only has Duke already faced the option this year, but they also had a bye last week to focus on the option. Duke's defense is holding foes to 89 yards per game below what it usually allows, putting it among the top 25 teams in the country in that regard. Duke was 4-0 and became ranked for the first time since 2015, and it did not handle that success in its last game against Virginia Tech, losing 31-14. It was Duke quarterback Daniel Jones' first game back from injury, though, and he has had two more full weeks to get prepared for this game. Duke is 20-10-1 ATS as an underdog over the past six years.
ATS Pick: Duke +3 Score: Duke 27, Georgia Tech 20 Fallica: David Cutcliffe's record as an underdog has been well-documented, as his teams have gone 14-2 with 12 outright wins as an underdog of four points or fewer. Duke has had time to get past its loss to Virginia Tech and now faces an option team that's been rolling the past couple of weeks -- but I'd be careful about potentially overreacting to the Louisville performance, as there were a lot of factors at play there (including decade-long grudges). Duke has done well against option teams lately, and I'd expect it will play well here.
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC/ESPN2) Coughlin: This is the definition of a reverse beg. If Oregon wins, all signs would point to College GameDay making its first-ever trip to Pullman next week as the Ducks visit Washington State. Everyone involved in the sport wants to see it happen, seeing how much Ol' Crimson has meant to the show. If Washington wins, the show from Wazzu will not happen.
After 12 straight wins over Washington from 2004 through 2015, Oregon has lost the past two games against the Huskies. Simply put, I think the Huskies are better at every position on the field -- but the head coach might be the biggest advantage of all for Washington, and that might matter most Saturday in Eugene on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the road favorite.
7 p.m. ET, Saturday Coughlin: It feels like this there has been too much made of how easy this month should (and will) be for the Mountaineers. This trip to Ames doesn't look like much, especially as West Virginia is 3-0 all time in Jack Trice Stadium. But it does feel tricky to me. The Cyclones got an unreal effort from freshman QB Brock Purdy, as he accounted for 409 yards of offense last week. The feeling is that Iowa State can make West Virginia one-dimensional, and therefore make all everything QB Will Grier uncomfortable, even though he already has thrown for over 1,800 yards and 21 touchdowns.
ATS pick: Iowa State +6.5 Score: Iowa State 31, West Virginia 28 Fallica: I was on the fence here, leaning toward the Cyclones, and after talking it through with Steve and Cole on the pod, I'm on board. Iowa State put up season highs in points and yards last week with Brock Purdy, who gives ISU a run threat at QB, and the defense "held" Oklahoma to 37 and TCU to 17. Last year, Matt Campbell's team allowed a bunch of yards to WVU, but only 20 points, and if it wasn't for Iowa State having to settle for two short field goals from inside of the 10, it would have won in Morgantown.
David Montgomery could be back, and if he is, that's an added bonus. ISU as a dog is almost an auto bet -- 9-2 ATS with five outright wins in their past 11 games as a dog. If West Virginia struggles the way it did in the second half in Lubbock, or turns it over the way it did last week against Kansas, its undefeated record will be no more.
12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN) Steele: Florida has won 13 consecutive games at Vanderbilt. Dan Mullen is facing Derek Mason for just the second time; their only other meeting was in 2014, when Mullen's Mississippi State Bulldogs won 51-0. Vanderbilt just allowed Georgia to put up a season-high 560 yards, as the Bulldogs beat the Commodores 41-13 in Athens.
Florida's defense continues to improve since its loss to Kentucky. Florida got some key players back from injury and suspension in that front seven, and the Gators have held foes to 287 yards per game over their past four games. Vanderbilt is 1-9 ATS against SEC foes, including 0-4 as a home underdog. Florida has played to a level of 103.7 in its past three games in my average game grades, while Vanderbilt has played at a 73.1 level in its past three; that would put Florida as a favorite of nearly four touchdowns. The Gators are coming off of two big wins, and despite the threat of a letdown, they have a significant talent edge and will be focused with a bye week on deck.
12 p.m. ET, Saturday Fallica: Akron laid an egg last week as a favorite vs. Miami (OH), but prior to that, the Zips put together good efforts vs. Power 5 teams in a win at Northwestern and a competitive loss at Iowa State. Terry Bowden's team has the No. 2 defense in the MAC in terms of expected points, sits at 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games as a dog and is 6-1 ATS with three outright wins in its past seven games as an underdog in conference play. Buffalo will win, but expect QB Tyree Jackson and the Bulls' offense to have to work for it.
12:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ACC Network) Fallica: Normally, I would stay away from a team laying two touchdowns that could potentially be without its best offensive player. But it's hard not to like BC here. The Eagles are in need of a win after losing in Raleigh last week, and they get a team that may have thrown in the towel in a nice early kick. Put it to you this way -- you'll know early if Louisville is here to play or another blowout is en route, and if you have the ability to live-bet, that could potentially hedge off any pregame plays involving BC.
But we'll cross that bridge when we get there. It's hard to have much faith in Louisville right now, so I'll take BC.
ATS pick: Boston College -13.5 Score: Boston College 40, Louisville 24 Coughlin: This one has to do entirely with the visiting Cardinals. I told you last week I had given up on my preseason pick of them winning more than seven games. The rest of this season just didn't look pretty for Louisville, and that was before it got smoked by Georgia Tech last week -- giving up 66 points in the process. Things look even darker now as the Cardinals head to Chestnut Hill, which is a place no one wants to go in the conference, especially for a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Last year, a 2-4 Boston College team went to Louisville and AJ Dillon ran for 272 yards as the Eagles scored 45 points and turned their season around. BC knows it can dominate the Cardinals' defense. Lay the points with the home team.
7 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN+) Steele: Last week, I used UAB (+8.5) over Louisiana Tech on the road and the Blazers delivered a 28-7 outright upset for me. Louisiana Tech is a quality team, though, and it will play more inspired football coming off a loss -- especially because it has only UTEP on deck. The Bulldogs also have a solid defense led by cornerback Amik Robertson and defensive end Jaylon Ferguson, and they're holding foes to 39 yards per game below their season average.
UTSA comes off the most misleading three-game win streak of any team this year. It has beaten Texas State, UTEP and Rice, who are a combined 0-14 against FBS foes this year. UTSA is dead last in my offense ratings, as it has averaged just 251 yards per game against a soft schedule. That average for UTSA is an incredible 189 yards per game below what their opponents typically allow. Louisiana Tech gained 417 yards in Death Valley, which is the most total yards any team has put on that LSU defense all year. Louisiana Tech is on an 11-5 ATS run in road games, and UTSA is 0-8 ATS in its past eight home games.
3 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN3) Fallica: Last year, a 56-9 loss to Central Michigan had to be the low point for Mike Neu's team. While it hasn't necessarily shown up in wins, Ball State is improved this year and it showed in efforts at Notre Dame and home against Northern Illinois. Any hope to get to six wins and a bowl game hinges on going 4-2 over the final six games. With losses at Ohio and Toledo likely, that means this one is a must-win. Look for Riley Neal and James Gilbert to do just enough against a young offense that hasn't gained more than 346 yards in a game this year with 16 turnovers in its past five games.
At War Memorial Stadium, Little Rock, Ark.; 7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (SEC Network) Steele: The Razorbacks have pulled off four straight upsets against Ole Miss. Arkansas enters off an expected beatdown by Alabama, but some positives came out of that 34-point loss. The Hogs had 263 yards at the half, and their 405 total yards was the highest total for any team this year against a strong Crimson Tide defense. Ole Miss had 826 yards last week, but it was against a weak ULM defense.
Despite its 1-5 record, Arkansas's defense is holding foes to 68 yards below their season average. Ole Miss is 7-16 as an away favorite, and I will call for Arkansas to pick up its first win over an FBS foe this year.
12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC) Coughlin: I'm just taking the over in Nebraska games until I don't want to anymore.
ATS pick: Over 59.5 points Score: Northwestern 31, Nebraska 30 Temple Owls (-7) vs. Navy Midshipmen (O/U 49.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday Fallica: You don't get a chance to grab points with Navy at home very often, but I'll take advantage of the opportunity here. Navy has won five of the past six games in which it has been a home dog, with the only blemish a 10-point loss to UCF last season as a 9.5-point dog. Coming off of a blowout loss at Air Force in which it had just 178 yards -- its lowest total since September 2013 -- I'd expect Navy to play its best game of the year.
This is still a team that beat Memphis earlier in the year and, reading the quotes from Ken Niumatalolo, the coach knows the importance of this game after what he called a devastating loss. I'd be surprised if Navy threw in another clunker. Temple has been playing very good ball lately, but this will be a tough spot.
7 p.m. ET, Saturday Steele: ECU head coach Scottie Montgomery is 7-9 straight up at home and just 1-12 on the road, while Major Applewhite is 1-5 ATS as an away favorite with his two AAC road wins coming by seven points and three points. Houston has had a couple of misleading finals this year, as it trailed Rice 30-27 with three minutes left in the third quarter and won by 18 points, and trailed Tulsa 26-17 in the fourth quarter but rallied to win by 15 points at home.
East Carolina is coming off of a blowout loss at Temple, so we gain some line value here. The Pirates beat North Carolina at home 41-19 and traveled to unbeaten South Florida and had a 24-9 first-down edge, generally outplaying the Bulls only to come up seven points short on the road.
While Houston has Ed Oliver on defense, it is allowing opponents 94 yards per game above what they usually gain. East Carolina's defense is holding opponents to 67 yards per game below their season average, so I like the considerable home underdog to cover here.
ATS pick: East Carolina +16 Score: Houston 37, East Carolina 34 Fallica: There's something about Houston that you just get the sense the Cougars should be better than they are -- and that's despite dominating Arizona and putting 49 points on Texas Tech. Houston is just 2-6 ATS (with three outright losses) in its past eight games as a favorite of at least a touchdown against FBS opponents. I don't think the Cougars will lose, but 16 seems like too many against a team that held South Florida to 20, blew out North Carolina and is coming off a horrible performance last week in a 49-6 loss at Temple.
ATS Pick: East Carolina +16 Score: Houston 42, East Carolina 30
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Best College Football Bets For Week 7
Reply With Quote
