[Hman]

Don't be surprised when these 20 NFL predictions come true

Pro Football Focus
ESPN INSIDER

Every season, NFL fans are treated to a new superstar leading the league in some category while other statistically dominant players continue to excel at their positions. This season figures to be no different.

Based on Pro Football Focus' advanced statistics and projections for 2018, here are 20 stat predictions for players and teams to lead the league. Don't be surprised if ...

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Patrick Mahomes will have the league's top deep passer rating

The Chiefs' offense is tailor-made for explosive plays. Andy Reid already made one of the league's most conservative passers, Alex Smith, into the most productive deep-ball thrower in the NFL last year. Now he has a quarterback in Mahomes who thrives throwing down the field. His last year at Texas Tech, Mahomes had the seventh-most deep passing yards in the country and threw 15 touchdowns on deep balls.

Ryan Kerrigan will lead edge defenders in total pressures

Few players in the league have been able to consistently produce the way Kerrigan has over his career. It's not only year-to-year but week-to-week as well. Last season, Kerrigan recorded multiple pressures in every game and had 10 weeks with at least four pressures. He has recorded more than 60 total pressures in each of the past four seasons for the Redskins and recorded double-digit sacks in each of those years as well.

William Jackson will have the league's lowest passer rating when targeted at season's end

Jackson finished second in passer rating against a season ago, with opposing quarterbacks earning only a 36.1 passer rating on the Bengals corner in 2017. The crazy thing about that stat is that Jackson picked off only one pass all season (a pick-six against the Packers). Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Peters and Darius Slay all picked off at least five passes last year and had higher passer ratings when targeted. Jackson was just that stingy when targeted, yielding a ridiculous 2.8 yards per attempt on his targets. If he keeps that up and picks off a few more passes, Jackson will be a shoo-in.

Kareem Hunt will once again lead the league in missed tackles forced

The only thing stopping Hunt from repeating would be injury or a hefty increase in workload for Alvin Kamara. The Kansas City running back was simply on a different level than the rest of the featured backs in the NFL last year when it came to breaking tackles. His 77 broken tackles were 11 clear of the next-best running back in the league. Even during his midseason lull, Hunt was still breaking tackles. From Weeks 6 to 13, he broke 26 tackles despite not cracking 100 rushing yards once.

Tarik Cohen will have the league's most missed tackles forced as a receiver

No player broke more tackles after the catch last season than Kamara, but Cohen actually broke them at a higher rate. Cohen broke 23 tackles on 53 catches last season, and in Matt Nagy's offense he could see his workload skyrocket. The offense requires the running back to be a weapon in the passing attack, and Jordan Howard has shown that he isn't that, with 14 drops on 66 catchable passes over the course of his career.

Deshaun Watson will lead the league in turnover-worthy play percentage

While there was a ton of good in Deshaun Watson's rookie year, a lot of the bad got swept under the rug. In seven games last season, Watson earned a whopping 13 turnover-worthy plays. That extrapolates out to almost 30 for a full season. Only DeShone Kizer had at least that many last season, and he won't be seeing the field any time soon in Green Bay. Without a full offseason of work while rehabbing his ACL tear, Watson could see similar struggles.

Julio Jones will lead the league in yards per route run, again

Yards per route run might as well be Jones' stat at this point. There is no more efficient receiver on a per-route basis in PFF's entire history of grading. He has led the league each of the past three seasons and showed no signs of slowing down last year. There have been only eight instances where a receiver has earned a yards per route over 3.0 for a single season. Jones has three of them. No one else has more than one.

Anthony Miller will have the league's most receptions from the slot

We saw a season ago with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp that rookies can transition quickly and effectively into the slot. Miller's skill set in the slot might top both of those guys. Last season at Memphis, Miller averaged a ridiculous 3.43 yards per route from the slot and scored eight touchdowns. His 19 broken tackles after the catch last year also make him a screen weapon in the Bears' offense.

Alex Collins will lead the league in yards after contact

The only thing that really held Collins back a season ago was the fact that he didn't take over as the featured back in Baltimore until halfway through the season. From Week 8 on last year, Collins gained 445 yards after contact, third most in the NFL. Now he'll be getting the bulk of the touches from the start of the season and will have future Hall of Fame guard Marshal Yanda clearing wider holes for him.


Bradley Roby

will lead the NFL in combined passes defensed and interceptions

Roby has always had a nose for the football in Denver -- he's just been stuck behind two of the best corners in the league. He's gotten his hands on 38 passes over his career on 335 targets. Roby takes that ability to the next level, though, when in press-man coverage. He's broken up 24.7 percent of his targets over his career when in press-man, the highest of any cornerback in the past decade.

Jimmy Garoppolo will lead the league in passer rating off play-action

Kyle Shanahan is surgical with his usage of play-action. Over the past four seasons, Brian Hoyer's 99.2 passer rating off play-action is the lowest of any starter under Shanahan. Garoppolo had a passer rating of 101.4 a season ago and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt off play-action.

Marcus Peters will have a career year

Cornerbacks tend to love playing in Wade Phillips' defense. Whether it's Aqib Talib, Chris Harris or Johnathan Joseph, all had some of their best seasons playing under Phillips. That should be no different for Peters, who now gets to play behind a much better pass rush than the one he left in Kansas City. Quarterbacks can also no longer simply avoid the Pro Bowl corner, with Talib on the opposite side. Peters was targeted only 72 times last season, by far the fewest of his career.

Tom Brady will finish with the highest overall grade among QBs

You have to go back to 2015 to find a time when that wasn't the case. Brady looks to be getting only stronger with age. He posted the two highest-graded seasons of his career the past two years and had only one game over that span graded below 60.0. He's in a class of his own at the moment.

DeAndre Hopkins will finish with the highest overall grade among WRs

From Weeks 2 to 8 last season -- the games started by Deshaun Watson -- Hopkins was the highest-graded receiver in the NFL. He had a 90.0 overall grade during that span, hauling in 38 passes for 551 yards and 6 touchdowns in six games. The immediate rapport they had was obvious, and Watson's trust in the wideout to make plays in contested situations will still be there in Year 2.

Roquan Smith will lead the league in tackling efficiency

Bobby Wagner has held the throne as the league's most sure-tackling linebacker for some time. Last season, he missed only three tackles on 133 attempts. He'll have some stiff competition from Smith -- if he signs his rookie contract and gets on the field. The former Georgia defender missed all six a season ago on 136 attempts. With far more space in the college game, one could argue the latter as the more impressive feat.

A.J. Bouye will finish with the highest overall grade among CBs

The forgotten corner in Jacksonville, Bouye is incredibly dominant in his own right. Bouye had the lowest passer rating in the NFL when targeted a season ago at 31.6. He also earned the eighth-highest grade among corners at 87.2 overall. That number could jump higher if teammate Jalen Ramsey starts tracking No. 1 receivers more often this year, leaving Bouye with easier assignments.

Rashaad Penny will finish with the highest overall grade among rookie offensive players

While the offensive line in Seattle, or lack thereof, could limit Penny's statistical production, our grading is irrespective of result. Penny has experience running through tight holes at San Diego State that will be invaluable as he transitions to the NFL. His 86 broken tackles last season were the most of any player in this draft class, and he averaged 3.32 yards per carry on runs where he was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Harold Landry will finish with the highest overall grade among rookie defensive players

Landry went to a perfect spot in Tennessee, where he won't be asked to play 1,000 snaps right out of the gate. He can cut his teeth as a sub-package rusher with Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan already penciled in as starters. That's ideal for Landry, who got criticized by some for his inconsistent effort level a season ago. At his best, though, Landry was a dominant rusher off the edge at Boston College. In 2016, he led all of college football with 18 sacks.

Jacksonville will finish with the highest-graded defense at the end of the year
The Jaguars will have some stiff competition from the Chargers and Vikings, but Jacksonville could realistically be even better in 2018 than it was last year. Yannick Ngakoue, Myles Jack and Jalen Ramsey are all going into only their third season in the league. All three could still easily improve on their already dominant performances last year. The Jags finished 2017 with a 92.0 overall defense grade -- the highest figure we've ever given.

New England will finish with the highest-graded offense at the end of the year

There's nothing bold about it: New England is always just that good. The Patriots finished first last year and second in 2016. The last time the Patriots didn't have a top-10 graded offense in PFF's system was when Matt Cassel started the bulk of the games in 2008. Even after losing Brandin Cooks and Nate Solder, the Patriots will be at the top again.

[johnnyvegas13]

Wow a little bullish on the chiefs