[POOLSIDE]

First off, just to be clear. I am not proclaiming the Broncos a lock to cover the +3. Anything can happen, as we all know. Instead, this is a discussion about value. More specifically, about how there is less than no value on the Patriots as three point road favorites this weekend.

The Pats giving three on the road means that the Pats would be roughly nine point favorites if the game were in Foxboro. Read that again. If this were a home game, the line would be Patriots -9. This is real life?

I hope we can all agree that this is laughable. I also hope that we can all agree that this line would not actually be that high. I'm guessing it would be in the -3.5 to -5 range. This means the line this weekend should have the Broncos as a short home favorite of less than three points.

The Patriots were -5 over Kansas City last weekend. One, the Chiefs and their incredibly overrated win streak are not better than the Denver Broncos. Two, even if you're one of these guys who thinks the Chiefs are better than the Broncos, there's no fckking way you can tell me they're four points better than the Broncos.

Instead, what we obviously have here is the books knowing damn well that everyone and their mothers will pound the Pats at "basically a pickem". Every genius that ends up in Vegas for the weekend will unload on the Patriots while they make extremely insightful points about how Brady is amazing and has owned this rivalry and how Manning is done and should have retired. Granted, both of those things are at least somewhat true. They'll also forget to mention that Brady's worst venue to play is Mile High and that, if you even believe in this stuff, Brady hasn't had any sort of success against this referee crew.

Again, just to reiterate. I am not telling you I think the Broncos are a lock. All I'm saying is that before you place a bet on the road favorite who's already lost once this year in this building and who has the worse defense and worse run game, take a deep breath and decide if you really want money on a line that has unarguably been inflated due to public perception and that despite this fact, is still getting 80% of the action.

If you're on the Patriots, I'd love to hear you defend this line. Not the pick, but the line.

[Justfollow]

Brady had no problem throwing with no edelman and amendola in the first game. This time they are going seal the deal. Broncos number one defense doesn't look scary at all.

[SBRMAN23]

I think Broncos and Cardinals win easy idk thats just my opinion. But they still have to play the games. To me Denver D is great and Pats just lost Mayo. that is huge that is their leader on D. Then Cam is a one trick pony once Arizona stuffs the run the rest will come easy i think. Ginn is banged up and Olsen is the only receiving threat hmm.

[POOLSIDE]

Brady had no problem throwing with no edelman and amendola in the first game. This time they are going seal the deal. Broncos number one defense doesn't look scary at all.

Missed the point completely. I don't want you to defend the pick. I already know why people picking the Patriots are picking the Patriots. I get it. I want you to defend the line. There's nothing about these two teams that says the Pats should be three point road favorites. Vegas knows this, that's why they keep juicing the -3 rather than moving off of it.

[POOLSIDE]

I think Broncos and Cardinals win easy idk thats just my opinion. But they still have to play the games. To me Denver D is great and Pats just lost Mayo. that is huge that is their leader on D. Then Cam is a one trick pony once Arizona stuffs the run the rest will come easy i think. Ginn is banged up and Olsen is the only receiving threat hmm.

We agree on the winners of both games, but I wouldn't say they'll both be easy. This Broncos/Pats game feels like a fg game. Overtime wouldn't shock me here. Arizona on the other hand? I think they'll be up two scores late in the game.

[JayDr3am]

First off, just to be clear. I am not proclaiming the Broncos a lock to cover the +3. Anything can happen, as we all know. Instead, this is a discussion about value. More specifically, about how there is less than no value on the Patriots as three point road favorites this weekend.

The Pats giving three on the road means that the Pats would be roughly nine point favorites if the game were in Foxboro. Read that again. If this were a home game, the line would be Patriots -9. This is real life?

I hope we can all agree that this is laughable. I also hope that we can all agree that this line would not actually be that high. I'm guessing it would be in the -3.5 to -5 range. This means the line this weekend should have the Broncos as a short home favorite of less than three points.

The Patriots were -5 over Kansas City last weekend. One, the Chiefs and their incredibly overrated win streak are not better than the Denver Broncos. Two, even if you're one of these guys who thinks the Chiefs are better than the Broncos, there's no fckking way you can tell me they're four points better than the Broncos.

Instead, what we obviously have here is the books knowing damn well that everyone and their mothers will pound the Pats at "basically a pickem". Every genius that ends up in Vegas for the weekend will unload on the Patriots while they make extremely insightful points about how Brady is amazing and has owned this rivalry and how Manning is done and should have retired. Granted, both of those things are at least somewhat true. They'll also forget to mention that Brady's worst venue to play is Mile High and that, if you even believe in this stuff, Brady hasn't had any sort of success against this referee crew.

Again, just to reiterate. I am not telling you I think the Broncos are a lock. All I'm saying is that before you place a bet on the road favorite who's already lost once this year in this building and who has the worse defense and worse run game, take a deep breath and decide if you really want money on a line that has unarguably been inflated due to public perception and that despite this fact, is still getting 80% of the action.

If you're on the Patriots, I'd love to hear you defend this line. Not the pick, but the line.

pool you got to understand when backing NE you don't have to defend or say anything.. its tom brady man, that's all you have to say. theres no argument after that name is said. Tom brady wins big for a living, its what he does. he wins superbowls, he beats you by being so versatile, and if the pats lose.. its never a dumb bet, just cause its tom brady lol

[Rich Boy]

Pats are very healthy and jelling at the moment. They dominated KC and should do the same against Denver. I think the Broncos have regressed on offense and honestly would be better with Osweiler starting. Patriots may knock old guy Manning out of this one early.

Manning looked like a frail senior citizen in his last start with no zip on the football. I think the Pats will sit tight on receivers and look to pick off weak ducks that Manning is sure to fire, this could be another patented Pats smackdown of the 35-10 variety, mark my words boys.

[Manny0825]

I love this question. It make no sense for NE to be road favorites at -3. I think all the value lies in Denver +3 and on the ML. Denver has been playing incredible defense. Everyone is so tripped up on how he passed so well last week against KC. KC was a weak team on an overrated winning streak. And they only lost to NE by one possesion. If they had managed the clock right, it couldve been an OT game and a different outcome. Denvers defense is elite. The best in the league in defensive effeciency. NE has absolutely no run game. So they are left with throwing the ball 40+ times. Denver will eat that up. Denver has no established a legit running game. Using the running game and manning short passes, Denver runs the clock out. All this talk about Tom Brady and edelman and gronk. They are useless if denver just continually keeps the NE defense on the field. The play is Den +3 in my opinion.

[POOLSIDE]

pool you got to understand when backing NE you don't have to defend or say anything.. its tom brady man, that's all you have to say. theres no argument after that name is said. Tom brady wins big for a living, its what he does. he wins superbowls, he beats you by being so versatile, and if the pats lose.. its never a dumb bet, just cause its tom brady lol

Again, the line. I know why we bet on Brady. I've made a lot of money betting on him over the years and he's maybe my favorite football player ever. But this line is a line that very clearly says Broncos or nothing. I'm looking for someone to defend the Patriots being -9 at home. No one will be able to.

[RavensFan2k3]

I think Broncos and Cardinals win easy idk thats just my opinion. But they still have to play the games. To me Denver D is great and Pats just lost Mayo. that is huge that is their leader on D. Then Cam is a one trick pony once Arizona stuffs the run the rest will come easy i think. Ginn is banged up and Olsen is the only receiving threat hmm.

i share the same sentiments. Infact, I bet Denver ML as soon as the line dropped

[JayDr3am]

Again, the line. I know why we bet on Brady. I've made a lot of money betting on him over the years and he's maybe my favorite football player ever. But this line is a line that very clearly says Broncos or nothing. I'm looking for someone to defend the Patriots being -9 at home. No one will be able to.

first they would have to make the line marketable.. especially in this situation.. -9 isn't marketable what so ever.

[getlucky2win]

peyton is biggest choker of all time and dun. -3 is a gift. public been killin the books, and it wont stop this sunday

[ZINISTER]

The line is set to get equal action on both sides. I also believe it is set at times to confuse us cappers to scratch our heads and say WTF!! If you want to look into the line being set in terms of HOW much better the team is then the other team. I think you might be looking at it in the wrong manner. Personally, I like the line Pats and -3. The Denver secondary doesn't have good 5th DB. I'm an Ohio guy. I have NEVER had a good word to say about Roby's play. Brady will butcher that secondary with a healthier WRing corp. The line would be higher "If" Payton wasn't on the other side. They know the public loves the Pats. It is the squarest pick of the week, week in/week out. I interpeted the line to get you to worry about Manning abilities to get easy scores facing a prevent defense and getting the back door cover. I can't see Denver winning the game. So with that said-LOCK up the Broncos ML, LOL.

[ZINISTER]

I should have added, I don't use the -3 home field advantage when cappin a game. I look at how the team plays on the road in divisional games and coast/coast games. I think some home field advantages are more and some less. Denver has one of the bigger ones.

[Renegades]

I agree with you but the line is skewed because vegas didnt want to get buried anymore with pats money. If this game were denver -1 or a pick like it should be, then even MORE would load up on NE. There is no value on NE but its an isolated game. There are not 16 games on the board. In an isolated game, I dont think most bettors care about value.

If I bet Denver it will be because the public is all over NE and I like the thought of a home dog in the champ round but I definitely think NE is the better team overall

[Renegades]

And to be honest, I would rather have Denver +9 at NE then +3 at home eventhough on paper they are essentially the same thing

[44 Mag]

I think Broncos and Cardinals win easy idk thats just my opinion. But they still have to play the games. To me Denver D is great and Pats just lost Mayo. that is huge that is their leader on D. Then Cam is a one trick pony once Arizona stuffs the run the rest will come easy i think. Ginn is banged up and Olsen is the only receiving threat hmm.

What??? Huge, the guy was basically a part time player this year. Check the stats. Hightower is their main cog at linebacker. Mayo is pretty much washed up and doubt the Pat's even renew his contract next year. Don't get me wrong, very popular guy, smart and a fan favorite, but long removed from their leader on "D".

[Renegades]

Mayo is not a big deal but Jamie Collins could be a big loss

[44 Mag]

Mayo is not a big deal but Jamie Collins could be a big loss

Collins is in. Boston Herald says so. LOL.

[strictlypaypal]

We agree on the winners of both games, but I wouldn't say they'll both be easy. This Broncos/Pats game feels like a fg game. Overtime wouldn't shock me here. Arizona on the other hand? I think they'll be up two scores late in the game.

Do you think palmers injured hand / finger will be a factor

[Seattle Slew]

NE could roll and win big, but there is no way I'm laying points to Manning in his building. I don't care if he's playing with one arm or one leg.

Broncos already have won something, with the forecast (mid 40s, chance of rain (no snow)) vs. Foxboro low 30s (snowing today).

[pilebuck13]

Got +155 Broncos ml this morning worth it for me I like this spot here....think old wade dials up a terror and that cute little edelmen gets stopped with his quick dump pass runs Bol men

[PrinceD]

I will be hitting Denver hard tomorrow

[Justfollow]

An injured riddled Pittsburgh team would of whooped the donkeys tail if not for that late fumble.

You guys will be cussing at the t.v when old man manning start throwing pick 6's

Only team that can beat the pats this sunday is the zebras!!! And I'm actually scared

[POOLSIDE]

first they would have to make the line marketable.. especially in this situation.. -9 isn't marketable what so ever.

Agreed. And this is the heart of my point. There's no way the game would be -9 in New England, which means that a line of -3 in Denver puts all the value on the Broncos.

I agree with you but the line is skewed because vegas didnt want to get buried anymore with pats money.

I disagree. They could have moved it to 3.5 or higher to avoid getting buried with Pats money. I believe they want to get buried with Pats money, but at a bad line.

[44 Mag]

Agreed. And this is the heart of my point. There's no way the game would be -9 in New England, which means that a line of -3 in Denver puts all the value on the Broncos.



I disagree. They could have moved it to 3.5 or higher to avoid getting buried with Pats money. I believe they want to get buried with Pats money, but at a bad line.

You know what, this is all bullshit anyway. LOL. The Pats have already played their once this year and lost, you think that happens twice in the same season??? Come on. Manning is reduced to game manager not QB. Bottom line, Brady will pick them apart like last week (KC) only worse. ML for me and it really isn't that high. Bet it jumps tomorrow. BOL men, see you Sunday.

[POOLSIDE]

You know what, this is all bullshit anyway. LOL. The Pats have already played their once this year and lost, you think that happens twice in the same season??? Come on. Manning is reduced to game manager not QB. Bottom line, Brady will pick them apart like last week (KC) only worse. ML for me and it really isn't that high. Bet it jumps tomorrow. BOL men, see you Sunday.

ML is way different from the Patriots winning by more than a field goal, which is what I'm talking about. I can't argue with the ML bet this weekend, except that I think the ticket is a little high due to the inflated line.

[70CoupeDeVille]

A three point road edge doesn't translate to a nine point home edge because a team leading by more than eight points late in the game is more likely to allow its lead to shrink than is a team leading by eight or fewer points; that is, with the longer favorite, the back door cover comes into play, and a potential back door cover represents betting value.

[POOLSIDE]

A three point road edge doesn't translate to a nine point home edge because a team leading by more than eight points late in the game is more likely to allow its lead to shrink than is a team leading by eight or fewer points; that is, with the longer favorite, the back door cover comes into play, and a potential back door cover represents betting value.

Wrong. Especially in this case, as Denver's home field advantage is maybe the largest in the league due to altitude.

[70CoupeDeVille]

You don't get it. Fine. But there's your answer to the pointspread equivalency issue.

[POOLSIDE]

You don't get it. Fine. But there's your answer to the pointspread equivalency issue.

I don't not get it. This is ridiculous. The lines are not set in fear of a backdoor cover. A few relevant comparisons off the top of my head. Broncos -4 at San Diego earlier in the year. Late in the season, Broncos -10. This isn't an anomaly. Pats at Bills, line was around a pickem. They meet again in Foxboro, line is Pats -7. Packers -10 at home against the Lions, Packers -3 on the road against the Lions. Seahawks -3.5 at St. Louis. Seahawks -10.5 vs St. Louis. Bengals at home vs the Browns, -13. On the road against the Browns, -7.5.

Also note that whatever happened in the first game did not have any effect on the line in the second matchup. Barring any drastic changes, the lines stayed consistent. Obviously injuries could change this, as well as a team just not being as good as originally thought. For example the Falcons who opened 6-1, which of course was misleading as they finished the season 8-8. Their -3 line at New Orleans did not translate to -9 at home for obvious reasons.

This isn't some theory I came up with. Unlike you, I'm not making shit up as I go. The books do not lower the line because there's an increased risk of a backdoor cover. That's insane, and a thoughtless piece of misinformation to spread around here as though it's a fact. In reality, the books usually want a backdoor cover. More often than not, it's a profitable situation for the books as the public tends to unload on the favorite.

Sticking to the facts, this line is inflated due to public perception. The reason that this line would not be -9 in New England has absolutely nothing to do with the potential of a backdoor cover. It wouldn't be -9 because that would be an absurdly inflated line that way too many people would notice, and they'd take waaaaaay too much money from professionals with deep pockets. Plus, the ML number for Denver would be a huge liability.

And yet again, this is my point. There is no defending this line. The Pats should be -4.5 in New England. They should not be -3 in Denver.

[strictlypaypal]

To your side I think the line is off 2 points. I think NE should be a -1 favorite @ Denver, which would mean NE -4 on a neutral field and NE -7 in NE. You're crazy if you think getting Den +6/6.5 with Peyton @ NE is a good bet. NE would cream them in that spot. So to me the line isn't too off. I would take NE -1 all day too in this spot. Since it's a field goal, and it may go down to a field goal I would still rather have NE -3 in the end over Den +3
to me the only way den covers (not pushes) is with a win.

[POOLSIDE]

To your side I think the line is off 2 points. I think NE should be a -1 favorite @ Denver, which would mean NE -4 on a neutral field and NE -7 in NE. You're crazy if you think getting Den +6/6.5 with Peyton @ NE is a good bet. NE would cream them in that spot. So to me the line isn't too off. I would take NE -1 all day too in this spot. Since it's a field goal, and it may go down to a field goal I would still rather have NE -3 in the end over Den +3
to me the only way den covers (not pushes) is with a win.

Yeah at -1 in Denver or -6.5 in New England, I'm probably not betting this game. That's exactly why I bet Denver. Inflated lines like this, to me, just feel like the type of bet you make a hundred times in a row and know you'll be up money in the long term.

[70CoupeDeVille]

NE stuffs Denver rush, scorches a confused secondary. NE rolls.

[ZINISTER]

If memory serves me correctly, Denver did NOT disclose the extent of Peyton'sinjury last year for the Indy game. Should have been an issue with cappers, but most of ya was worried about a 1/2 Lb.of air. The line is not set for a back door cover! The line SHOULD make you think about Manning back door cover. This whole -3 and+9 is just plain retarded. Look at home/away games in divisions. Is the line like what you are saying ever? NO it's not. The line is to get bettors on both sides. Throw your dart and be done.