[bferony]

play 4 team 13PT TEASER IN NFL

Well the first thing anybody is going to ask is what 4 teams do I bet well the beauty of the system I believe is that it can be almost any team and you should have a 90% chance of winning, especially after weeding out bad teams. Or injury riddled teams

I won in week 1, lost in week 2(taking stl +9 against wash) and won the last three weeks. I lay 1300 to win 1000 and I try to bet it at 5Dimes where if you pay the extra 10% a tie is a push instead of a loss.. I would advise to always lay the extra juice and make sure you don’t lose on a ti.. SO after 5 weeks im up 2700
I HAVE ALREADY MADE MY PLAY FOR WEEK SIX
ATL +10

CINN +13
JET +7.5
DENVER +8
(STRONGLY CONSIDERED NE +5.5)
let me try and break this down as best as I can and I hope somebody can check and see if I really know what I’m talking about
I
IT WOULD BE GREAT IF SOMEONE COULD GO BACK A YEAR OR TWO AND SEE IF WHAT I THINK HOLDS TRUE


I have only started doing it this year and I really don’t have the time to go back and research it any further but it sure seems to be working right now




in week 1 of the NFL season there were 32 teams that played. out of those 32 teams there were five teams that would have lost getting the 13 points Cleveland would have lost getting three and a half from the Jets Indianapolis -2 would have lost playing at Buffalo Tampa Bay would have lost laying 3 at home to Tennessee Oakland would have lost getting three at home against Cincinnati and the Minnesota would have lost laying 3 on the road at San Francisco
So basically 5 out of the 32 teams wouldn’t have covered
But if you were to weed out the bad teams that you would never really play at the 13 points you would not play Tampa Bay you would not play Oakland and you might not play Cleveland
So now there are either two or three teams if you include Cleveland that could lose out of 30 I could see somebody get tripped up on Indianapolis for sure and Minnesota to start the season
out of those losing teams 2 are road favorites 1 was a home dog, 1 was a home favorite, and 1 was a road dog
Week 2 4 REAL LOSERS
This is the week that had the most losers with 7 teams not covering getting 13 points St Louis lost laying 4 at Washington New Orleans lost laying 91/2 to Tampa Bay at home ,the Bears lost getting two and a half at home from Arizona San Francisco lost getting 6 on the road at pitt and Indiana lost laying 7 at home against the Jets. depending on what line you got Tennessee could have lost also play in Cleveland on the road at .pic.
Out of those seven teams no one’s going to play the Bears no one’s going to take TB and it would be hard for someone to take New Orleans with no Drew Brees laying 9 so that leaves four teams out 29 teams that would lose . you could probably get suckered with any of these four teams that lost in the second week of the season not knowing who is good and who is Bad yet. Give it another week and you would never play ind or San Francisco as both Pittsburgh getting 7 and the Jets getting 20 seem like much better bets
So the first two weeks can be a little bit hit or miss until you see who’s really good and who is really bad or hurt to start the season so if you wanted to filter it even further you wouldn’t start this until at least the third week.

This week one road favorite lost 3 H favorite lost one road dog lost and one home dog lost.
Week 1 lets say 3 out of 30
Week 2 lets say 4 out of 29.

Week three is when it seems to really start kicking in when you get an idea of what teams are good and what teams could be bad OR INJURED
The losers in week 3 San Diego getting 2 at Minnesota Jacksonville getting 14 at New England San Francisco getting 7 at Arizona Miami – 1 at home against Buffalo.no one is ever going to take Jacksonville in that game and not too many people are going to take San Francisco after seeing how they played against Pittsburgh.
If we leave in San Francisco though, we come away with 3 teams out of 31 lost
3 Rdogs lost and 1 home dog
Week4 gets even better-ONLT 1 REAL LOSER
Buffalo losers laying six against the Giants and Houston loses getting 6 from Atlanta nobody should be playing Houston in that game so that leaves one loser out of 29 since now there are only 30 teams playing because of the by this week.
1 rd lose 1hf lose

Week 5
New Orleans loses getting six at Philadelphia Dallas loses getting 9 from New England at home Detroit loses getting 4 at home from Arizona I don’t see why there would be any reason for anybody to play either Dallas or Detroit when there are so many other games available knowing the problems these teams have. and I would think most people would probably rather have Philadelphia +7 with New Orleans being a dome team and not playing very well outside AS WELL AS BREES SHOULDER

Arizona + 10.5 AND New England + 5 seem so much to be a better bet

So this week 1 out of 28 teams would be a loser(NO) so 25 out of 26 would be winners

2 losers were home dogs and very bad or injured teams playing against good teams. 1 was road dog.
So it seems like almost every week you have at least a 90% chance to pick the right team four times.
Here’s what I observed after seeing the teams that have lost getting 13 points and also looking at the teams that have WON getting 13.



In 5 weeks there have been there have been 156 teams that have played. And 20 have been losers. Throw out the 9 teams that lost that you would never ever play and that leaves your record at

136-11 YESS 136-11

1. Don’t EVER EVER EVER bet bad teams or really injured teams against good teams. It’s almost never worth it. ALMOST all the teams that have lost are bad teams or ones that have many injuries(dallas ,det ,ind ,Houston). And only buff, min and phil (who might be claim to be a good team) have lost. EVERY GOOD TEAM HAS WON EVERY TIME WITH 13pts
2. Try really hard not to play bad teams against bad teams as either one of them can play a shitty game and lose by 14 point
3. Bad teams do win the majority of time with 13pts but they are also the teams that are almost always are the losers with 13pts . so why take that chance
4. So bet good teams against both bad and good teams. GOOD TEAMS PLAYING GOOD TEAM BOTH TEAMS HAVE COVERED WITH 13PTS EVERY TIME Sometimes maybe a mediocre team that has an angle playing a bad team.(BUFF OR PHIL TODAY
5. Again DON’T BET BAD TEAMS NO MATTER WHAT.
6. Look below at the the twenty teams that have lost and see they are all bad teams or injured teams or both AND ABSOLUTELY NO GOOD TEAM HAS LOST WHEN GETTING 13 PTS

1. hf have lost 3 times(dall/phil jets/colts nyg/buff(after throwing out tenn/TB and tb/no) with 2 being in week2
2. rf have lost 3 times(ind/buff minn/sf stl/wash all in first two weeks)
3. Rd have lost 5 times(cleve/jets sf/pitt sd/minn sf/ari no/phil(after throwing out jack/ne and Houston/atl)
4. hd have lost I time (mia/buff) after throwing out cin/oak ari/chi ,ne/dallas, ari/det

good teams road fav have lost only 3 times and none since week 2
good teams home fav lost only 3 times and only 1 in last three weeks
WEEK I 3 REAL LOSERS
WEEK 2 4 REAL LOSERS
WEEK 3 2 REAL LOSERS
WEEK 4 1 REAL LOSER
WEEK 5 1 REAL LOSER

[TheSchafe]

(calling beantownjim)

[bferony]

got very lucky to push atl. but at least smart enough to bet them sunday night and get the best line possible

thats why I bet these at 5dimes only place that a tie is not loss after watching atl against wash should have given NE more thought

still a 3 teamer is -255 so my 1300 got me back +510
+2210 for year

Three teams didn't cover with 13pts ARI ATL and Tenn
First week that 2 of the better teams didn't cover but i didn't think ARI was that good anyway but u would think they would not lose getting 10 pts against Michael Vick

Don't see very many games that get me excited next week Any opinions


going to start one tonight with NE +3 1300 to win 1000 with 3 open

[bferony]

Adding jets +23

[bferony]

week 6 review

4 teams didn't cover with giants losing last night at +17