[Sportsnut1968]

First off let me say that i'm a square....The only way i seem to win is find people who think they can pick games and fade them....I always seem to find that vegas sucker line every week, but never have the guts to play it....This week it was the Oakland game....After trading away Jared Allen and Jonathan Bostic, i thought that Oakland would just move the ball at will.

What i thought would happen.....Oakland -3 over the Da Bears

Derek Carr had his 2nd lowest yardage total of the year with 196...Latavius Murray has his 2nd lowest yardage total of the year with 49. Amari Cooper had his 2nd lowest yardage total of the year with 49...I guess i don't even see how that's possible...I didn't watch the game to see what happened..

What i thought would happen....Denver -7 over the Vikings

Teddy Bridgewater has played horrible so far....But yesterday he plays his best game of the year againt a Denver defense that is pretty good...And Peyton Manning plays his 2nd worst game of the year...This should've been a total mismatch on paper..

Anyone care to share something on these games that the squares like me miss?

[Sherfire]

I'm very new to the betting world. Been doing it less than a week. But I can tell you somethings I've learned already. College football is much easier to bet on than the NFL. In the NFL, every team has the capability to win on any given Sunday. Well just about every team. Looking at the Raiders and Bears, it's a tough game. I think if that game had been played 10 times it goes either way 50/50.. or maybe 60/40 in favor of the Bears. Why? Because the Raiders are a young team. They have been on an upswing, drinking the cool-aid a little bit, and they're going on the road to play in a very tough environment. John Fox has no quit in him and so you know his players are gonna show up, with or without Jarred Allen. All of these guys are good and one player isn't necessarily going to be the difference.

The Broncs game I can't really say. I bet on the Broncs because I had watched them play this season and knew they were good defensively. I had not watched the Vikes and that was to my detriment. I bet the game based on the strong opinion of people I trust. I think this is another game that 10 times played the Broncs cover that spread maybe half the time.

What I learned in my first week of betting was, in the NFL, take the sure bets. The two bets I was sure about was Cincinatti and St. Louis. Everything after that was a push or worse in my mind. I shouldn't have bet all of those game.. Even though I won on the Bears I shouldn't have bet it. There were a couple others that I won with but I probably shouldn't have bet them.

That's just my opinion and i'm very new to this. But I watch a lot of football and I was 90% certain the Bengals and Rams would cover. Everything after that I was wishy washy about and shouldn't have bet.

If this was college football, I'd have more confidence in the picks because the talent discrepancies are much more profound. SO are the coaching and philosophy discrepancies. Much easier to find sure bets in collegiate football, imo. I went something like 8-2 in college. 4-4 in the NFL.. and 3-0 in baseball.. which I also think is much easier to predict.

Hope that helps. Go buckeyes.

[Matty Mo]

I'm not saying I'm a sharp, but I love Teasers early in the year. A lot of dogs can be pushed up 6-7 points which makes it very attractive.

But in the end, it's all a gamble man. Unless someone is posting daily figures and shows decent + money, I wouldn't trust anyone as a "sharp" on here. Any real sharp charges money for their picks and doesn't give a shit about recognition on some betting forum.

[survive]

Basically just bet the opposite of what your head is thinking like that Seinfeld episode with costanza doing everything opposite

[16kredit]

understand that vegas knows a lot more than regular bettors. Especially in major sports like NFL. I can also give you a few advices I've learned. Do not overreact the previous week. Most teams are not the same on road and @home. Dont give too much credit to stats, instead check who have they played before. For example Arizona faced their season's first legit defense in STL which gave them trouble. Before that they were the most efficient red zone offense (look who they have played).
Check on odds sites where the public places their money. 1 thing is sure NFL is never easy no such thing as sure,easy bet. Most of the time when you see a line and say hey this looks awesome xy team is only -3 think about why before placing bets. Find a weakness which the opponent can expose.

Oh and extra edit: careful with the Rams, when you expect them to blow out a team they struggle. When nobody thinks they can pull of a win they usually do (or atleast cover)

good luck

[Sportsnut1968]

what sites are the best to see where the public money is going? Covers?

[jaxjonesdrew32]

what sites are the best to see where the public money is going? Covers?

https://www.sportsinsights.com/free-nfl-odds/

[jaxjonesdrew32]

Basically just bet the opposite of what your head is thinking like that Seinfeld episode with costanza doing everything opposite

lol so true